There’s a strong argument to be made that Charles Leclerc is the fastest qualifier on the Formula 1 grid.
Despite having had precious little time with a car you could describe as genuinely the quickest in the field, he’s amassed 23 pole positions since he claimed his first in 2019.
Consider that Max Verstappen, who’s obviously had a pretty decent run in a few very fast cars in the last three seasons, has accumulated 31 in that same period, just eight more.
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Leclerc only ever needs a sniff to insert himself in the conversation for pole. Around the Las Vegas Strip Circuit, where the straights benefit the Ferrari motor and the chilly temperature ameliorates its problematic tyre wear, the scent of P1 was overwhelming.
You were a happy punter if you’d put it all on red in the early hours of Saturday morning in Vegas.
The Monegasque duly delivered pole 23, pipping teammate Carlos Sainz by 0.044 seconds. But the fine margin belied his decisive advantage, having topped all three qualifying segments and never having looked in doubt.
Verstappen, meanwhile, was 0.378 seconds adrift, having abandoned his final lap after seeing the writing on the wall.
If you were surprised to learn how many poles Leclerc has collected over his career, it’s probably because of his abysmal conversion rate, having won just five races. It’s a reflection of the quality of his machinery rather than any commentary on his ability.
The double-edged sword of sizzling qualifying speed is the almost inevitable disappointment that follows.
But this weekend Leclerc has a genuine chance to finally execute a complete weekend.
The disrupted practice running painted a picture of the SF-23 and RB19 close on race pace, enough to put the result in doubt.
On paper all the numbers fall Ferrari’s way, even if Red Bull Racing holds a slender race-pace advantage on the average lap times.
The Ferrari is better at warming up its tyres, which should give it a boost off the line at the start and an advantage around the pit stops.
Its better traction out of the slow corners and skinnier rear wing also gives it a small but potentially crucial advantage down the straights, albeit it’s not clear whether that would be enough to counteract the DRS.
Verstappen also has the disadvantage of starting on the dirty side of the grid. The racing line is the only part of the circuit with any rubber on, which will likely be very beneficial at launch.
Will that be enough to counteract Red Bull Racing’s better ability to get the most from the tyres once they’re up to temperature?
There’s so much unknown about this race — about how the track will evolve, about how the tyres will react to an extended safety car period, about how the strategy will play out. Somewhere in all that grey area Ferrari has a chance to put forward just its second win of the season.
Drivers weigh in on Sainz penalty call | 01:09
BUT WHAT HAPPENED TO CARLOS SAINZ?
The hangover from the debacle of Thursday practice was debilitating when the paddock reconvened on Friday night, and IT lasted well into the early hours of Saturday morning, once qualifying had been completed.
Ferrari was every bit as quick as pre-race expectations had suggested and as practice had demonstrated. Sainz was only fractionally behind Leclerc in pure pace but still close enough to be in the victory conversation.
But his weekend finished less than 10 minutes into first practice, when the errant water valve cover blew a hole in his chassis and engine.
One of the many new parts he needed was a battery. He had no spares left in the pool. Unsealing a new one cost him 10 places.
There was no rule that would allow the stewards to let him off the hook, much though they tried to search for one.
Most controversial, though, was that the paddock had evidently been sounded out for support for collectively turning a blind eye to the penalty in the interests of fairness.
At least one team — speculation suggests Mercedes, with whom Ferrari is battling for second in the constructors standings — dissented.
Sainz has been fuming ever since.
In the post-qualifying press conference he first attempted to avoid the subject — “I’m going to try and control myself,” he said, immediately putting his microphone down — but when pressed, he launched into a surgical strike against the entire sport.
“The thing speaks for itself,” he said, carefully choosing his words. “There was clearly a safety issue for the track. The safety issue destroyed my car. My mechanics had to invest five hours in putting together a completely new car, and on top of that we get a 10-place grid penalty for something we had nothing to do with.
“I’m disappointed but at the same time not surprised. There have been many cases this year that I think the sport has proven it can do things a lot better.
“I’m surprised that the governing body doesn’t have the power in cases of force majeure to overrule. I expected more from the sport in this situation.
“For sure there will be rival teams pushing for me to get a penalty, which surprised me in a way. In another [way], I have been in the sport too long to [not] understand that it’s business. There’s too much money involved in the finishing position in the constructors [championship] or whatever for a team not to threaten to apply for a penalty for me.
“I’m extremely disappointed and honestly just very upset with the whole situation with the sport. Honestly just very upset and in a bad mood because I expected more from the sport.”
He didn’t miss.
The list of F1 missteps this year is long and continues to grow. While much of the blame is sheeted home to the FIA, particularly around consistency in decision-making, Formula 1 itself is responsible for so much of the setting up of the series these days that it’s unfair for it to wash its hands of all issues.
This weekend in Las Vegas, where the track build was completed late and evident not quite up to standard, is just one such example. Other promoters not owned by Liberty Media would’ve been forced to carry that can.
And then there’s the matter of team influence in decision-making. While the stewards obviously would have needed unanimity to circumvent a rule book lacking a regulation for force majeure, it’s just another example of the teams’ competitive instincts working against the benefit of the sport.
No-one really wins from Sainz being penalised. But more than just Sainz loses.
Piastri OUT in McLaren double blow | 01:25
McLAREN GAMBLE BACKFIRES
McLaren had been building in such an impressive crescendo in recent months, culminating with a swing at victory in Brazil for Lando Norris.
The upgraded MCL60 still has weaknesses, but developments have been strong enough to raise even its weaker suits such that it no longer fears any circuit.
But then the team rocked up to Las Vegas and both cars were knocked out in Q1.
It’s only the second time all year neither driver has featured in the top 15. The first was at the Miami Grand Prix at the start of the season, back in the bad old days of its dodgy launch-spec car.
So was this a sign that the team still has some significant weaknesses to address?
Perhaps — but not necessarily with the car.
“Earlier tonight the pace in FP3 was good,” Oscar Piastri insisted after qualifying 19th. “And the pace at the start of qualifying was good.
“In the first few laps we were in the top five more or less.”
The Aussie rookie is right. Both he and teammate Lando Norris were top-10 cars after the first runs.
The problem is that the team gambled on getting through to Q2 with only one set of tyres when other teams were throwing fresh softs at their cars to capitalise on the rapidly improving grip levels.
“I don’t think it was really an issue of pace, just the run plan maybe wasn’t what it should’ve been,” Piastri said.
“I don’t know if we were one of the only ones to not use two sets of tyres. If we were, I think that probably explains it a lot.”
At the end of Q1 only four cars in the bottom 10 had stuck to only one set of tyres: both McLaren drivers, Alex Albon and Fernando Alonso.
The situation speaks for itself.
Fortunately for McLaren, Lance Stroll will start near the back of the grid with a penalty, leaving only Fernando Alonso to contribute to Aston Martin’s effort to close the 21-point gap to fourth in the constructors championship from the top 10.
But it could have been so much worse thanks to a strategy gamble gone wrong.
Still, McLaren wasn’t the only team caught out by the changing track conditions.
Sergio Pérez was knocked out of Q2 because Red Bull Racing returned him to his garage in the dying minutes of the segment despite him being sixth and clearly at risk. It was an unforgivable and rightly punished error at a circuit experiencing rapid track evolution that was always going to catch out complacency.
The silver lining for Pérez is that Lewis Hamilton is only one place ahead of him, making it unlikely the Briton will outscore him by the eight points required to take second in the championship to Abu Dhabi — though it does mean the Mexican will likely secure the place with another forgettable midpoint finish. Perhaps that’s fitting for the season he’s had, though.
‘Who is the idiot there?!’ | 00:40
SARGEANT SEEKS TO RESCUE CAREER IN THE NICK OF TIME
There’s only one driver still out of contract with barely two weekends to run this season, and he just scored the best qualifying result of his Formula 1 career on home turf.
American rookie Logan Sargeant looks like he’s finally getting things to click at Williams, qualifying seventh behind teammate Alex Albon. Both will be promoted a place, to fifth and sixth, to lock out the third row.
It was a remarkable result for the Williams team more broadly, the only one other than Ferrari to get two cars into Q3. It’s only the second time the team has achieved it all season, with the first having been the Dutch Grand Prix in August.
Zandvoort momentarily appeared to be a much-needed breakthrough for Sargeant, but the American promptly binned his car on his first lap in the top 10, dampening the achievement.
It was indicative of the way he’s struggled to put all the pieces together for a comprehensive weekend result all year. He’s often shown glimpses of impressive speed but never in a way that makes you believe he can get from the start to the end of the weekend cleanly and without mistakes.
It’s why the team has been reluctant to offer him a contract extension, leaving him in the lurch just months out from 2024.
But perhaps he’s firing at exactly the right time.
At the sport’s highest profile race, around a tricky low-grip track and in the home country of Williams owner Dorilton Capital, Sargeant sailed through to Q3 with a performance that has him looking good for a strong points haul.
That would of course be of double benefit: for himself but also for the team’s battle to stay ahead of AlphaTauri in the fight for seventh in the constructors standings, a duel worth millions of dollars in prize money.
With AlphaTauri’s Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda languishing near the back of the grid, Sargeant could be set to mount a multimillion-dollar campaign for retention.
P1 abandoned after heavy track issues | 03:11
WHAT KIND OF RACE SHOULD BE EXPECT?
With a clean and uncontroversial pair of sessions in the book, Formula 1 can look forward to the climax of its Las Vegas gamble: the 50-lap grand prix.
Qualifying delivered an interesting battle for pole and an unconventional top 10. Can the race clear that bar?
We have a few hints already about what to expect.
Tyre degradation around the newly resurfaced track is very low thanks to both the smooth tarmac and the lack of high-speed corners. On paper that makes this an easy one-stop race using a set each of the softs and the mediums.
But there is a catch.
The track temperature is so cold that it’s taking several laps to get the tyres up to temperature. And unlike other races, where the battle is to keep them from overheating, in Las Vegas the fight will be to keep them from cooling down.
The problem with cold tyres is that they don’t dig into the road. Instead they slide across the track, causing graining. Think of graining like what happens when you use a rubber to erase something from a piece of paper — the little flecks of discarded rubber that come away from the main body is much the same.
On F1 tyres those flecks stick to the surface of the compound, which reduces the contact patch between the tyre and the road. That then reduces grip further, which causes more sliding and then more graining.
All of a sudden you’re driving seconds off the pace and needing to slow down by seconds more to have any hope of recovery. But by then your race is ruined.
Avoiding graining will require patience to bring the rubber up to temperature before pushing — easier said than done when you’re a racing driver in a grand prix. Any driver who can’t control themselves will have to commit to more costly pit stops.
The undercut — stopping early to get the advantage of a fresh tyre earlier than your rival — isn’t expected to be powerful given the slow warm-up time. Instead the battle could be over who can pit latest.
But any driver that finds themselves out of position might not be too worried given overtaking should be easily by all accounts, with the long straight and big braking zones providing plenty of opportunity.
There are two DRS zones, but the long one at the end of the Strip — which was extended by 50 metres ahead of final practice — will be the pick of the bunch. It does, however, give the passed car a chance to fight back through the chicane.
Will those things combined add up to a race worthy of the hype?
After a controversial start to the weekend, F1 will be hoping to end with a more positive bang.
