Spotlight on Scott; finals or bust for Blues; can Pies ruck and roll? Storylines to watch at each club in 2023

Are Collingwood ready to ruck and roll?

Was last year’s stunning rise under rookie coach Craig McRae a fluke? McRae’s confidence-fuelled Pies went 7-0 in games decided inside a goal in the home-and-away season, only to drop two such games in the finals. There is still some unknown about Collingwood due to that extraordinary hit rate in close games. But there will also be a close watch on how the Magpies’ ruckmen perform after the call to ship off Brodie Grundy to Melbourne in a salary cap move. It is amazing the difference in reaction between Grundy’s departure and the 2020 “fire sale” of Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tom Phillips and Atu Bosenavulagi. History has shown those moves to be the right ones despite the heat that came on then list boss Ned Guy. Darcy Cameron, Mason Cox, Aiden Begg and newest signing Oscar Steene represent Collingwood’s big man department these days. It is not quite as simple as comparing their output to Grundy’s, given the substantial difference in wage, but the Pies are a Cameron injury, or form slump, away from potentially being exposed.

How long is the honeymoon period at Essendon?

All the talk two years ago of the Baby Bombers being reincarnated looked foolish by 2022, as they repeatedly struggled to stop opponents from scoring amid a woeful seven-win season that cost Ben Rutten his job. There was in-fighting off the field, too, as a fresh president and new-look board took over. There is little expectation for Essendon to end their 19-year drought without a finals victory, but a similar season to the last one will not be tolerated. The Bombers wanted Alastair Clarkson as coach before settling on Brad Scott, who has his own point to prove after a disappointing ending to his otherwise decent tenure at North Melbourne. Scott’s reputation for maximising what he had at the Roos helped win over Essendon’s powerbrokers, but he will be under a bigger spotlight at Tullamarine. The honeymoon period will last only so long if Scott is unable to get the red and black on the right path.

Fremantle can be kings of the west

The Dockers have a chance to emerge, even if only briefly, from West Coast’s sizeable shadow in Perth. The cross-town Eagles are on struggle street as their list undergoes a transitional period, whereas Justin Longmuir’s Fremantle plan to contend for this year’s premiership. They finished fifth in 2022 to qualify for September for the first time since 2015, then rallied to score a come-from-behind finals win over the Western Bulldogs. Freo did so off the back of an impressive young core that includes Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong, Sean Darcy, Brennan Cox, Hayden Young and Heath Chapman. Aware of their growing credentials, the Dockers gave up valuable draft collateral to acquire Melbourne premiership big man Luke Jackson and ex-Hawk and Sun Jaeger O’Meara. Much of last year’s success was achieved without superstar Nat Fyfe, who has since agreed to give up the captaincy. Was it the right call? Are Brayshaw or Serong ready for that sort of title, at a time the club’s expectations are sky-high?

Can Geelong defy gravity?

Made every post a winner in the final months of last year, winning a 16th-straight match to clinch the club’s 10th VFL/AFL premiership, then enjoying an outstanding trade period. Winning the Jack Bowes sweepstakes, which came with the bonus of Gold Coast’s pick seven (which was used on promising local product Jhye Clark), added to a youthful haul of Tanner Bruhn and Ollie Henry, brother of premiership Cat Jack. Joel Selwood timed his retirement perfectly, but ageless veterans Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield, Mark Blicavs, Mitch Duncan, Isaac Smith, Cam Guthrie and Zach Tuohy are still excelling. Someone will have to step into Selwood’s old job as captain. Geelong have brilliantly handled the transition from their last great era to this one, even though it took some September heartache to reach the top again, but it will be fascinating to see if they can continue to defy AFL gravity.

Sun’s shining for Gold Coast

The Suns will hope outspoken president Tony Cochrane, who is stepping down after nine years in mid-March, is their only major personnel loss this season as they target a historic first finals appearance. It has been a seriously rocky road to this point, but they have righted the ship and are brimming with confidence these days. Gifted spearhead Ben King will be back this season after sitting out the entire 2022 season recovering from an ACL rupture. That in itself is cause for optimism, but Stuart Dew’s group boasts an array of enviable talent, led by Touk Miller, contested-ball beast Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Ben Ainsworth and Wil Powell, plus experienced trio David Swallow, Jarrod Witts and Sam Collins. Izak Rankine’s departure hurt them, but they have stemmed the tide of player exits. There is genuine reason to believe Gold Coast could make the top eight.

Giant battle looms for GWS

The years ahead could be the most challenging of the Giants’ short history, which is saying something after they originally had to cobble together a squad of mostly 17- and 18-year-olds into a serious AFL team. Football and list boss Jason McCartney bit the bullet in October and traded Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto, Tanner Bruhn and Bobby Hill to correct a long-standing salary-cap problem. That followed GWS nose-diving to 16th place on the ladder and parting ways mid-season with coach Leon Cameron. New coach Adam Kingsley still has some top-line footballers at his disposal, from co-captains Toby Greene, Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio to Sam Taylor and Tom Green, but it is anyone’s guess how competitive the Giants will be in 2023. There are several AFL clubs – some Victorian, some not – that cannot afford to be down for long, and GWS are one of them. Will they be able to maintain western Sydney and beyond’s attention if they battle again?

Have Hawthorn struck the right balance?

The vibe at the Hawks under Sam Mitchell could hardly contrast more from the Clarkson era. Youth is in, veterans are (mostly) out, and the doors are being flung open to all, even the pesky media. Mitchell’s first season in charge exceeded expectations with eight victories, but he also made clear the direction he was going in. That view to the future went into full throttle when free agent Jack Gunston signed for the Lions, before Hawthorn happily traded Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) and Jaeger O’Meara (Fremantle), both of whom were pushed out of the centre square at times last season. The midfield now belongs to the likes of Jai Newcombe, Josh Ward, Will Day and James Worpel, with recruits Cam Mackenzie, Josh Weddle and Cooper Stephens set to get their shot, too. Cutting a list too deeply can have consequences, so it is a wait and see on whether the Hawks struck an appropriate balance.

Melbourne should be in flag contention

The dynasty debate was live and kicking when the 2021 premiers reached 10-0 last year, extending their extraordinary winning streak to 17 matches, but there were some warning signs by then. What followed was a thoroughly underwhelming period capped by a straight-sets finals exit and including an altercation between Steven May and Jake Melksham. Adding salt to the wound was young ruckman Jackson’s defection to Fremantle. There is still every reason to believe any side with Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and May will be a force to be reckoned with, particularly after they traded for Grundy as Jackson’s replacement. Figuring out how best to use Gawn and Grundy might have some early teething problems, and they desperately need someone tall to stand up for them in attack, but the Demons should again be in flag contention. If not, something has gone wrong.

Can Clarkson be the saviour at North Melbourne?

There is no bigger storyline at Arden St than new coach Clarkson. His appointment was a huge coup for the rebuilding Roos, and he is taking part in the AFL’s investigation into allegations of racism during his time at Hawthorn. Like Fagan, Clarkson has denied any wrongdoing. Though most attention is on Clarkson, Tarryn Thomas has also been in the headlines for being charged with allegedly threatening to distribute an intimate image. North powerbrokers will eagerly anticipate the investigation findings as they try to escape the AFL cellar, with Clarkson viewed as the potential saviour after missteps with former coaches Rhyce Shaw and David Noble. The Kangaroos won only nine of 61 games across the past three seasons, while collecting the past two wooden spoons and placing second-from-bottom in 2020. The talk from inside the North camp is the environment has transformed for the better, but all that matters once the season starts is how they perform. The development of young guns such as Luke Davies-Uniacke, Cam Zurhaar, Tristan Xerri, Will Phillips and Charlie Comben will be important, plus star draftees Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw.

All eyes on Hinkley and Horne-Francis at Port Adelaide

Ken Hinkley and Jason Horne-Francis are the two Power players under the most pressure this year. Hinkley, the longest-serving coach in VFL/AFL history without a grand final appearance, enters the season without a contract beyond 2023. Only two of Port Adelaide’s 10 seasons with Hinkley at the helm ended with more losses than wins, but they have not advanced beyond three preliminary finals. Chairman David Koch is getting impatient, especially with Tom Jonas, Travis Boak, Charlie Dixon and Scott Lycett on the wrong side of 30. Another 0-5 start would almost certainly doom Hinkley. As for No.1 pick Horne-Francis, he arrived at North Melbourne with enormous hype but under-delivered last season amid some on- and off-field issues, before requesting a trade back to South Australia. After surgery on both legs, the 19-year-old has resumed full training and all eyes will be on him after draft peer Nick Daicos’ brilliant first season.

Can Richmond regenerate on the run?

Are ex-Giants Hopper and Tim Taranto, as dual recruits, the second coming of former Hawks Mitchell and O’Meara, or will they give Richmond’s band of veterans one last run at the premiership cup? It is a dangerous game trying to regenerate on the run, but it can be done. The Tigers will hope they can follow Geelong’s lead and keep the good times rolling, rather than suffer like Hawthorn did in Clarkson’s final years as coach before Mitchell finally embraced youth. In Richmond’s favour is a better young to mid-20s group than the Hawks had in that time, including newly re-signed Shai Bolton, Noah Balta, Liam Baker, Josh Gibcus, Jack Graham, Hugo Ralphsmith, Tyler Sonsie and Maurice Rioli. But while mentioning a series of names, there is reason for concern, given Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dylan Grimes, Dion Prestia, Robbie Tarrant and Tom Lynch are 30-plus. Glass half-full or half-empty?

Can Lyon lift St Kilda out of mediocrity?

“Ross the Boss” is back in town, joined by new list boss Stephen Silvagni. The Saints certainly had a go at trying to scale the ladder but rightly turned to the draft the past two years. St Kilda’s best years in recent decades were when Ross Lyon (and Nick Riewoldt, among others) was in charge from 2007-11, but he returns to a middling list. Whether or not Lyon and co. can get the Saints out of mediocrity will form part of his legacy, which so far includes going agonisingly close without winning a premiership at both St Kilda and Fremantle. The Saints will have to find a way early, and possibly for quite a while, without No.1 target Max King, who is recovering from a shoulder reconstruction. They will need even more from captain Jack Steele, Jack Sinclair, Jade Gresham, Rowan Marshall, Callum Wilkie, Brad Crouch and Bradley Hill, but the progress of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Marcus Windhager and Mitch Owens might be more decisive.

Sydney’s start in the spotlight

Grand final day maulings this century have rarely had a positive postscript, so John Longmire’s Swans will be out to change that after an 81-point hiding from Geelong last year. The difference between Sydney and so many others who failed on the biggest stage is the Swans’ age demographic, which suggests there are plenty more bright years ahead. Even so, mental scars can linger, so how Sydney start the season could offer an indication into how much the result hurt them. List boss Kinnear Beatson has done a wonderful job piecing together this squad, from star juniors and Academy pick-ups to bargain selections such as Chad Warner, Tom Papley, Justin McInerney and Paddy McCartin. They have also planned well for life beyond Lance Franklin, with Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean part of the blueprint. Franklin will ideally go out gracefully, too, unlike his poor finals series.

West Coast’s slump likely to continue

One of the AFL’s powerhouse clubs is suffering through a rare down patch that shows no sign of being over yet. Four years after their dramatic grand final triumph over Collingwood, the Eagles won only two games in 2022. A brutal injury run did not help, but an ageing list was almost as much to blame. Jeremy McGovern, Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Shannon Hurn, Jack Darling and Jamie Cripps were major factors in West Coast’s stint at the top, but have blown out the candles on their 30th birthday cake – and some of them did so years ago. There is not a large crop of emerging talent coming through yet, but they split their No.2 pick to bring in first-round picks Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett in last year’s draft, as well as selecting Naitanui’s potential successor, Harry Barnett, after missing out on Luke Jackson. Campbell Chesser is another teenage prize set to be unleashed after a debut season ruined by injury.

Expectations high for Western Bulldogs

Not even Josh Dunkley’s second-time-lucky departure has dulled expectations at the kennel. Luke Beveridge, who coached the Bulldogs’ second-ever VFL/AFL premiership in 2016, signed a two-year extension in December until 2025 and is hell-bent on adding to the club’s trophy cabinet. There will be a sour taste in the mouth after their elimination final fadeout to Fremantle in Perth. The recruitment of veteran bookends Liam Jones and Rory Lobb rounds out the list nicely, assuming they both pan out. But it might not matter if promising key-position pair Sam Darcy and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan explode in their second and third season, respectively. The club and midfield are still led by superstar captain Marcus Bontempelli, but he needs great seasons out of Jack Macrae, Bailey Smith, Tom Liberatore, Aaron Naughton, Bailey Dale, Caleb Daniel, Tim English and Cody Weightman if they are to return to grand final day.

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