After all of the build-up, Australia’s dream of making it out of the groups at the World Cup for just the second time hinges on 90 minutes of football. (Well, and a huge amount of added time.)
The Socceroos have effectively done all that could be asked of them, sitting second in Group D heading into the final match-day and completely controlling their fate.
This is the equation that awaits them against Denmark – and the most likely knockouts path if they get things done.
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Group D standings (after 2/3 matches)
1. France – 6 pts, +4 GD
2. Australia – 3 pts, -2 GD
3. Denmark – 1 pt, -1 GD
4. Tunisia – 1 pt, -1 GD
To play: France v Tunisia and Australia v Denmark, Thursday December 1 at 2am AEDT (simultaneous)
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WHAT AUSTRALIA NEEDS vs DENMARK
Things won’t be easy against the Danes, who made the semi-finals of the Euros last year, but the Socceroos have options.
A win would see Australia advance into the round of 16. Australia would finish second in the group unless they can make up six goals of goal difference on France.
A draw would see Australia advance into the round of 16 if France doesn’t lose to Tunisia. If the Tunisians pull the upset, they would finish on four points and ahead of the Socceroos on goal difference. Australia would finish second in the group.
A loss would see Australia eliminated from the World Cup, as they’d be behind at least France and Denmark on points. Australia would finish third in the group if Tunisia does not beat France, and fourth if Tunisia beats France.
According to Stats Insider’s simulations, Australia has a 13.9% chance of winning against Denmark, a 21.6% chance of a draw and a 64.5% chance of losing.
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WHO WOULD AUSTRALIA PLAY IN THE ROUND OF 16?
It is almost certain Australia would finish second in Group D if they advance, meaning they will play the team that wins Group C (6am AEDT on Sunday December 4), so we will not go into the scenarios involving winning Group D.
That is most likely to be Lionel Messi’s Argentina, who need to defeat Poland at 6am on Thursday morning to win the group.
Group C standings (after 2/3 matches)
1. Poland – 4 pts, +2 GD
2. Argentina – 3 pts, +1 GD
3. Saudi Arabia – 3 pts, -1 GD
4. Mexico – 1 pt, -2 GD
To play: Poland v Argentina and Saudi Arabia v Mexico, Thursday December 1 at 6am AEDT (simultaneous)
If Argentina does not defeat Poland, then Australia would play either Saudi Arabia (if Poland draws with Argentina and Saudi Arabia defeats Mexico) or Poland (all other scenarios) in the round of 16.
There is an outside chance Saudi Arabia could win the group even if Argentina wins; Saudi Arabia would need to defeat Mexico by three more goals than Argentina defeats Poland by.
If Australia wins that Round of 16 game it would face the winner of Netherlands-USA in the quarter-finals (6am AEDT on Saturday December 10).
If Australia wins that quarter-final game it would face likely Spain or Brazil in the semi-finals (6am AEDT on Wednesday December 14).
