The Blues have three wins and a draw to open the new season – their best start since winning seven straight in their last premiership year of 1995.
While coach Michael Voss says they still have much work to do heading into Thursday night’s Gather Round opener in Adelaide, here’s why a dream could become a reality.
Those were the days: The Blues celebrate their 1995 premiership.Credit: The Age
The Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay double act
Up forward, the Blues ’95 premiership was primarily built around skipper Stephen Kernahan (63 goals) floating between centre half-forward and full-forward, former Demon Earl Spalding (34), who eased the grind on Kernahan, and former Saint and dead-eye left-footer Brad Pearce (52), who was the surprise gunslinger of the season. Their efforts allowed half-forward Matt Clape (31) and champion midfielder Greg Williams (29), who spent more time forward, to flourish. The modern-day pillars are in place with Coleman medallists McKay and Curnow who, like Kernahan and Spalding, can push up field, then retreat and beat their man one-on-one inside attacking 50, as they did against North Melbourne.
Curnow has taken his goalkicking to a new level, averaging a career-high four goals per game, while posting a shot-at-goal accuracy of 70 per cent, his best since his debut year. That McKay was cleared at the tribunal on Wednesday for rough conduct was important, for he now has the chance to build on his four goals against an undermanned North. What the Blues need is a consistent third threat, so it’s over to either Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni or a small forward such as Matt Owies.
Double act: The Blues hope Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow can be the twin forward towers in a premiership side.Credit: AFL Photos
Jacob Weitering and a strong defence
On average, the Blues are conceding one fewer goal per game compared to last season, and only St Kilda are harder to score against once entering the forward 50. Weitering may be the modern-day Stephen Silvagni, the man voted at full-back in the AFL’s team of the century. He has had an excellent start to the season and holds the defence together by taking the opposition’s best key tall. He is arguably the man the Blues can least afford to lose to injury. The loss of Sam Docherty (knee) for almost two months hurts, but running half-back Adam Saad is in career-best form, averaging a career-high 23.8 disposals, 7.3 contested possessions and 9.3 intercept possessions, and has been the Blues’ No.1 ranked player. Fellow half-back Nic Newman has also been in excellent touch, while Lewis Young has emerged as Weitering’s sidekick. The Blues of ’95 had as hard-nosed a defence as you could find, with the dash of Andrew McKay and Ang Christou complementing Silvagni, Peter Dean and Michael Sexton.
Greater midfield depth
The Blues may not have the quickest midfield, but they are capable of moving the ball fast in transition, an issue they rectified at half-time last Friday evening. Patrick Cripps is the reigning Brownlow medallist, but has slipped in terms of goal-kicking and disposal efficiency. He has failed to hit the scoreboard in four games this season; he had a career-high 20 last year. If Cripps can start to contribute in this regard, the Blues are well-placed. Sam Walsh, expected to return from injury on Thursday night for his first game of the season, is blue chip, while Matt Kennedy, George Hewett and Adam Cerra are above average. Zac Fisher has also been in excellent touch, having 28 touches and 329 metres gained against the Kangaroos.
There is now depth through shrewd drafting and recruiting, despite Zac Williams’ season-long absence through injury. In hard-running draftee Oliver Hollands and former Docker Blake Acres, the Blues have rectified their issues on the wing. Ed Curnow, who returned from the wilderness in playing all four games, now faces a fight to retain his spot. Lochie O’Brien, the substitute in three games, also provides depth. Paddy Dow is a ball magnet in the VFL, but his card appears marked at senior level. Regardless, Dow adds to the depth. This midfield may not yet be in the class of Williams, Craig Bradley, Brett Ratten and Fraser Brown, but the potential is there.
Carlton captain Stephen Kernahan led the Blues to two flags – in 1987 and 1995.Credit: Jack Atley
Turnover game
As Champion Data analyst Louie Kebakovski points out, history says a strong turnover game is needed to win the premiership. The Blues ranked mid-table (11th) in scores from turnover differential last year and were too reliant on scoring from stoppages, having ranked second in the league in scoring differential. The Age columnist Kane Cornes argued on Friday the Blues had lost their “greatest strength” – scoring from stoppages. However, they have changed in 2023, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game from turnovers, ranked third. They rank 16th in scores from stoppage, which needs to improve, but it could be argued they have more than compensated for that with a strong turnover game.
Pain of last year
AFL great Matthew Lloyd believes a team has to experience finals heartache before it can enjoy the ultimate success. Speaking directly of the Blues, Lloyd says, “you have to knock on the door for a while and build experience”. “I don’t think you just come from nowhere,” he said. Lloyd’s all-conquering Bombers of 2000 were fuelled by the preliminary final heartache against the Blues of ’99. Just as the Blues of 1995 were fuelled by a shock straight-sets exit the year before, and the grand-final loss to the Bombers of ’93. In recent times, the Tigers, Demons, Cats and Bulldogs all had finals pain before breaking through. The Blues have not featured in September since 2013. Cripps, for all his greatness, has yet to play a final. But the pain of missing the finals last year by 0.6 of a percentage point, having been in the top eight all season until the final evening of the home-and-away campaign, may be enough to drive this side.
Men on a mission: Sam Walsh, Jacob Weitering, Patrick Cripps and Harry McKay are determined to lead the Blues to the promised land.Credit: Getty Images
Embracing the hype
The vibe is growing on Lygon Street. The post-match pizzas are flowing, the horns tooting. How to handle the weight of expectation from fans tired of false dawns isn’t easy, but Voss says the best way is for he and his men to embrace the expectation. “We have from the start. We don’t want to step away from our responsibilities and the way we want to turn up and play every single week. If we have got a supporter base who connects into that, and they love the way we are going about it, that’s a great thing,” he said. “If that means we get to play every single week in front of 50,000, 60,000 fans, how exciting is that for us? That makes us really unique and different to a lot of teams in the competition, so we are looking forward to that. But what we are focused on is making sure we enjoy that journey along the way and just stay totally in the present with each game that we play.” Wise words from a man who, as a player, knew all about delivering premierships.
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