If you find trawling through a Melbourne Cup form guide more daunting than public speaking, don’t fret, we’ve got a simple way to help you choose which horse to back in the main event this afternoon — and it’ll be over in 60 seconds.
It’s even quicker this year because the field is down to 22 after POINT NEPEAN and LUNAR FLARE were late scratchings.
Let’s continue by discarding the outsiders. Only three horses in the past 30 years — Twilight Payment ($27 in 2020), Prince Of Penzance ($101 in 2015) and Viewed ($41 in 2008) — have won the race at odds higher than $20.
With that in mind, you can feel somewhat safe in ruling out GOLD TRIP ($21), DUAIS ($21), NUMERIAN ($41), CAMORRA ($41), STOCKMAN ($26), VOW AND DECLARE ($21), YOUNG WERTHER ($34), SERPENTINE ($41), DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR ($51), GRAND PROMENADE ($71), ARAPAHO ($61), EMISSARY ($26), TRALEE ROSE ($71), HIGH EMOCEAN ($26) and INTERPRETATION ($51).
See how easy this is when you’re prepared to be ruthless?
That brings us all the way down to just seven horses still hunting for the win.
You’ll have to forgive us for the next cuts, because we’re about to get a little sexist — and ageist.
Just sixteen times — roughly one in 10 Melbourne Cups — has the race been won by a female horse.
So ladies, MONTEFILIA and REALM OF FLOWERS, you’re out.
Next step is to look at the birth certificates. There hasn’t been a three-year-old winner of the race since 1941 so even though DEAUVILLE LEGEND is a red-hot favourite, he has to join fellow 3yo HOO YA MAL on the exit list.
And of the 161 winners of the great race only 14 have been seven years or older. So apologies to KNIGHTS ORDER, but the veteran’s got to go.
With two horses left, it’s time to get a little superstitious.
WITHOUT A FIGHT is rated one of two horses who can win the race by punters.com.au, but he’s drawn barrier 18, which hasn’t produced a Cup winner in more than 50 years.
Which leaves us with the Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace-trained SMOKIN’ ROMANS.
What a thrill it would be for Jamie Kah to become the second female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup after she considered quitting the sport after a rough run in recent years.
According to racing analyst Andrew Hawkins, Smokin’ Romans is also “the best value of any horse in the field”.
“He has been a revelation this campaign – and he still appears so well weighted, too,” Hawkins wrote for Betfair.
“Everything has been geared towards getting him to this race and he looks to have had the right preparation to fire.”
