The Cowboys came riding 2023 as genuine premiership contenders after falling just one try short of making the 2022 grand final.
But second-year syndrome has taken hold in Townsville, with Todd Payten’s men looking “a shadow of themselves” after seven rounds.
North Queensland were the fairytale story of last season, rising from 15th on the ladder in 2021 to finish 3rd in 2022 and they even hosted a preliminary final.
Now they sit languishing in 16th on the ladder – only ahead of the winless Wests Tigers – after two wins and five losses.
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The Cowboys have gone down to the Broncos, Bulldogs, Dolphins and Warriors twice, while sneaking home against Canberra and beating the Gold Coast.
Payten’s side boasted the second-best defence in the competition last year – it was the cornerstone of their success but the bedrock has buckled in 2023.
They’re now leaking 21.9 points per game compared to the 15.1 they conceded last year.
It’s the same story at the other end of the field, with North Queensland’s attack nosediving from 3rd to 15th in points scored.
Foxsports.com.au has broken down where things have gone wrong for the Cowboys and why their season can still be saved.
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DEFENSIVE TICKER RUNNING LOW ON TICKS
They say defence is an attitude and last year the Cowboys were making their rivals fight for every centimetre.
Payten’s men were playing with a chip on their shoulder after plenty of pundits predicted them to collect the wooden spoon.
But in 2023 – while carrying the favourites tag – they appear to have lost their hardened edge in defence.
NRL premiership winners Corey Parker and Bryan Fletcher both told foxsports.com.au the success of the North Queensland starts and ends with their defence.
“They scrapped and competed for absolutely everything you could possibly think of last year, their defensive line was the cornerstone of everything they did and off the back of that everything just flowed,” Parker said.
“I think they’ve put a little bit too much focus on other places as opposed to where they were really strong last year.
“The year before last they were 15th-best defensive team in the comp and last year they were the second best… They haven’t just forgotten how to do it, they’ve just taken their eye off the areas they were very, very good at last year.
“They’ve had some injuries and suspensions like everyone, but they’ve looked a shadow of themselves.”
The Cowboys have fallen in every defensive category year on year, including points conceded (2nd to 9th), line breaks conceded (2nd to 15th), offloads conceded (1st to 12th) and missed tackles (6th to 12th).
Fox League expert Fletcher warned something has to change in Townsville – and quickly – if they’re to save their bacon in 2023.
“The Cowboys are basically 12 months late on everyone’s prediction, everyone last year was saying they’ll get the spoon,” Fletcher told foxsports.com.au.
“They don’t have that motivation this year of every so-called expert saying they’re going to get the spoon, we heard that from Toddy Payten last year that they used that as fuel.
“They used that as motivation, I don’t know how much motivation they’ve got left because they were the second-best defensive team last year, only a few points behind Penrith.
“This year, they’re letting in 22 points a game, which is not much better than the Tigers, so something needs to change up there.”
ATTACK ALL OVER THE SHOP
Halfback Chad Townsend, who signed with North Queensland on a $2.4 million, three-year deal, was praised as the 2022 buy of the year.
But with the Cowboys’ defence struggling their attack has stuttered.
North Queensland have been playing plenty of catch up footy this season which has seen Townsend go away from his role as the side’s chief organiser.
Parker believes the No. 7 is now too often looking for the big play and “trying to push too hard in attack” as a result of being behind on the scoreboard.
“They’ve got players trying to do things with the ball that they weren’t trying to do last year,” Parker said.
“You’ve got players like Chad Townsend who last year was exceptional, just did his job, passed early, directed them around, kicked into corners, built pressure.
“Whereas this year, I’m seeing Chad Townsend drifting across the field and trying to set up plays – that’s not Chad Townsend. He’s cramping Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater.
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“Everyone is trying to do a bit too much and going away from their strengths. We’re all waiting for them to come good but at the moment, offensively they’re struggling, and now Jason Taumalolo is out.”
The Cowboys post-contact metres have plummeted from the best in the competition to 11th, and now Taumalolo (knee) is sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks.
They’ve also dropped off in run metres (2nd to 10th), line breaks (6th to 15th), tackle busts (6th to 15th) and offloads (10th to 17th).
OLD HABITS DIE HARD
The best teams taste success not just week in week out, but year in year out because winning becomes a habit.
The Cowboys board were convinced Payten’s 2022 success wasn’t a flash in the pan and on the eve of this season they extended the coach on a lucrative deal until the end of 2026.
Payten is determined to prove them right, but it’s been a tough start after the majority of his senior players started pre-season late due to the World Cup.
However almost every club didn’t have their full contingent until January and Parker believes some old habits may have crept back into the Cowboys’ squad.
Parker said dropping off just one percent in preparation can create huge consequences on game day.
“All the noise coming out of Townsville last year was how hard they’d worked, it was all defence based and working hard, extra sessions and everything else,” Parker said.
“That stuff instils confidence in you and the group from a defensive point of view and last year they competed and scrapped for everything, they were connected, they were working hard.
“When all of a sudden you don’t prioritise the little things or take your eye off that thing that was the cornerstone you built your season on, that can be the difference.
“Todd Payten came out in the first couple of rounds and said they eased into training and that makes you think what else are they easing into or not having a priority because you can’t take that stuff for granted, you just can’t.
“He said they’d eased into training off the back of the World Cup… You’ve only got to be a smidge off in those workrate areas and teams can really crucify you.
“The teams that have done it year after year after year, it just becomes a habit. But the Cowboys guys only did it for one year, so it’s not quite a habit yet and that just puts pressure on everything else.”
SEASON CAN STILL BE SAVED
The Wests Tigers are near-certainties to collect their second straight wooden spoon because losing is all the club has known for the past decade.
The Cowboys on the other hand just six months ago went within a try of making their third grand final in eight years.
That’s why Parker believes their current problems can be quickly solved – as long as the players are willing to put in the work.
“It’s not a tough fix because they lived and breathed it last year,” Parker said.
“The fix might be as simple as this is what we did last year, this what we’re doing this year and this is the difference.
“To put it into context, what are the Warriors doing so differently this year? Their ability to work for one another, their finer details in a defensive mindset which then allows time and space for Shaun Johnson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.
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“The Broncos have never had a drama scoring points but defending has been an issue, so their attention to detail in defence has been a notable change this year.
“Payten has to instil change and he has to value it but more importantly the team, they’ve all got to value it and appreciate it.
“But look it’s still an easy fix because they know what it tastes and feels like, if you were shooting in the sky and hoping to hit something, that’d be a hard fix because they don’t know what it looks or feels or even smells like but they were there last year.
“They know what it feels like but it’s going to take some hard work, it doesn’t just come back because you want it to.”
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