On the cusp of snapping his Australian Open round of 16 hoodoo and reaching a fourth straight major quarter-final, the story behind the incremental improvements for Australia’s best player Alex de Minaur lies in the numbers.
Detailed data analysis done by Tennis Australia shows how de Minaur has made subtle but important tactical changes in the past 12–24 months that have helped make him the top “returning” player in men’s tennis.
Rising up the rankings: Alex de Minaur.Credit: Chris Hopkins
The changes, including his positioning when returning second serves and how he uses his forehand, has sent him soaring up the statistical leaderboards.
“I think he has become more aggressive,” explains Simon Rea, Tennis Australia’s senior manager of game analysis.
“His approach would have been ‘I’m going to keep getting physically better but at the same time I want to build my own arsenal so that I can continue to threaten the best in the world offensively as well as defensively’.”
De Minaur is recognised as the “return leader” on the ATP Tour, statistically the best player in the men’s game with not only getting thunderbolt serves back in court, but strong results in other important metrics too. He has risen from fourth spot for the 2023 season when he was behind only Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
The ATP crunches data to come up with its “serve leaders”, “return leaders” and “under-pressure leaders” player ratings. De Minaur earned top billing in his category with his renowned ability to get the ball back and, importantly, converting break point chances.
Tennis Australia analysis shows how de Minaur and his team’s tactics around managing second serves has been an area of focus and improvement, with players such as Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton and Czech Jiri Lehecka banging down second serves at an average of 174km/h.
“He’s combating the trend of huge second serves coming at him by continuing to be aggressive and proactive with his return position,” says Rea.
“But he’s also adding nuance and variety, and giving himself a fraction more time when he needs to be by being marginally more conservative and opening up options for himself in the process against his opposition who are serving faster on second serve than we have ever seen before.”
In terms of second serve return points won for the past 13 months, de Minaur has jumped up the charts, rising from 11th on the tour in 2023 to second overall now, behind only Jannik Sinner.
“What we saw in 2023 was he was either inside the baseline or he was two and three metres behind the baseline. Now what we’re seeing over the most recent period is he’s either inside the baseline or he’s mixing it up [his return position].
“I think he’s introduced a bit more light and shade to his game where he’s not just giving the two looks [to the server].
“What does that do? I think it keeps the server off balance and gives him options. If he’s playing someone with a huge second serve, someone like a Lehecka, Sinner’s probably not a huge second serve, Alcaraz can generate some heat on a second serve, Ben Shelton certainly can, then he’s got options. He doesn’t have to be inside the baseline any more.
“I think he’s saying ‘I want to have options up my sleeve … I don’t want to be limited to just being in here [inside the baseline], or just being three metres behind, I want to be able to cover everything in between as well, and dish up what I need to dish up against the best players’.”
The story of a more aggressive mindset can be viewed through the prism of de Minaur’s forehand. The figures show he is more inclined to run around his backhand, albeit only marginally more often, to take advantage of his forehand weapon.
“I think he’s been more offensive with his forehand groundstroke,” says Rea.
“Typically the most forehand dominant players … all the best players in the world generally do more damage with their forehand side in men’s tennis.
“They might make more errors off their forehand, but they’re nearly always more damaging off their forehand.
“Of all the forehands that he [de Minaur] hits, one in four now is out of his backhand corner. So he’s not content to rely on how solid his backhand is … now he’s thinking a little bit more offensively.
“I think there’s an enormous amount in that. I think it’s allowing him to be that much more offensive, and not having to purely rely on wheels – and we know he’s going to rely on his wheels because that’s his game-changing asset – but he’s adding offensive capability to his physicality, movement and explosive power.”
De Minaur’s challenge to go deeper again into the Australian Open second week remains. A five-set loss in the fourth round to Andrey Rublev a year ago – in which the Australian lost the final set 6-0 – coupled with a straight-sets demolition at the hands of Novak Djokovic at the same stage of the tournament two years ago are stark on the career CV.
But an observation from Lleyton Hewitt from 12 months ago stands out.
“Alex knows his strengths and he keeps trying to add different dimensions to his game,” Hewitt said.
“That’s why [there is] consistent improvement with his rankings – year on year he’s just becoming a better player. He’s filling out, he’s becoming stronger on the court as well and that’s been able to hold him in good stead to get to that next level. Now he’s trying to add a couple more strings to his game as well, and so far so good.”
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