This weekend’s Mexico City Grand Prix could be Mick Schumacher’s last chance to save his Formula 1 career.
It’s just Schumacher’s second year in Formula 1, but making it to the top is often easier than staying there.
It’s a lesson the son of seven-time champion Michael has been grappling with all season.
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It’s been clear since the very first round of the year that he was in a battle to retain his seat. He we outshone by last-minute draftee Kevin Magnussen in Bahrain, and some massive crashes in quick succession left him dangling by a thread.
A mini revival in the middle of the year stayed his execution, but so far it’s amounted to points at just two races of 19 to date. With the end of the season approaching, he’s about to find out whether it was enough.
“Honestly, it’s still 50-50. Nothing has been decided yet,” Guenther Steiner told Germany’s RTL last week.
“Of course we will not make a decision between Austin and Mexico, simply because the time is not there.
“The next time would be the week to Mexico because we don’t have a race there and have more time to deal with it.”
That’s 50 per cent in favour Mick, with the other 50 per cent being to switch to F1 veteran Nico Hulkenberg.
“We‘re talking, but nothing has been done yet,” Steiner said.
Hulkenberg, a nine-season veteran of the sport, is considered a safe pair of hands, having impressed with sudden substitutions for unwell Aston Martin drivers in 2020 and again this year.
But he’s been without a drive since the end of 2019 and not been up to much since then.
One might uncharitably suggest Haas is stuck between two fairly uninspiring options.
But a decision has to be made, and the clock’s ticking down to deadline.
WHAT’S GONE WRONG FOR SCHUMACHER?
The crux of the decision to consider Schumacher alternatives was summed up well by team owner Gene Haas.
“I think Mick has got a lot of potential, but you know he costs a fortune and he’s wrecked a lot of cars that have cost us a lot of money that we just don’t have,” he told Associated Press.
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His crashes this season have been prolific.
He wrote off the car in a frightening high-speed smash in Saudi Arabia that left the team so short on spares that it opted against running him in the race.
He hit Fernando Alonso in Imola, putting the Alpine driver out of the race.
In Miami he cost himself a shot at maiden points in a crash with Sebastian Vettel in the final laps.
In Monaco he split his car in two in a crash at Swimming Pool.
He then ended a mid-season of smooth running with a shunt at the end of first practice in Japan, drawing Steiner’s ire.
In exchange for just 12 points, less than half Magnussen’s total, it’s been a costly second season.
But arguably his biggest problem is that he has reportedly lost the faith of the Ferrari academy, which sourced him the seat in the first place. Though Maranello has refused to comment, there have been rumours for months that the Italian team is prepared to drop him from the program.
The second Haas seat doesn’t belong to Ferrari, though keeping the team’s biggest technical partner sweet certainly helps. But if Schumacher is no longer under Ferrari’s wing, then that’s one fewer argument to keep him.
WHY YOU’D PICK HULKENBERG
Fundamentally Hulkenberg has something Haas really needs: experience.
The 35-year-old’s journeyman reputation worked against him at the end of 2019 when he was forced out of Renault for Esteban Ocon, but it’s a positive in this case. His experience racing for three different teams would be valuable to Haas, as would be his dependable record of scoring points in thoroughly midfield cars.
That all came to the fore when he substituted for Sebastian Vettel at the start of the year. Having never so much as tested a 2022-generation car, he outqualified teammate Lance Stroll on his first attempt. His subsequent 12th place in Saudi Arabia was also credit to him given how extreme that circuit is.
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His technical feedback is also well regarded. His two cameo appearances for Racing Point at Silverstone in 2020 were so impressive that the team said they played a major role in the development of its subsequent major upgrade package, which carried the car to two-late season podiums, including a victory at the Sakhir Grand Prix.
In this way he’d be a good foil to Kevin Magnussen. The Dane has always had his big standout races but could otherwise be accused of lacking consistency. He’s also better regarded for hustling a substandard car rather than finessing it into something better via astute technical feedback — a strength of sorts, but a team can’t make progress with just that kind of driver.
And as for that persistent criticism that Hulkenberg never scored a podium in Formula 1, it’s critical to remember that he never drove for a regular podium-getting team. In his entire full-time career his teammates scored only four podiums — one each in 2014 and 2015 and two in 2016, all by Sergio Perez.
While it’s true he missed opportunities for potential rostrum appearances, it’s not a strong enough argument on to write him off.
WHY YOU’D STICK WITH MICK
The way to a strong case for Schumacher has already been laid out by Gene Haas.
“If he wants to stay with us, he‘s got to show us that he can score some points. That’s what we are waiting for,” he told Associated Press. “Mick’s future is going to be decided by Mick.”
But that’s somewhat unfair considering the Haas car almost never scores points in the hands of either driver.
Before Magnussen’s excellent top-10 finish last weekend, the car hadn’t been capable of scoring points since the Austrian Grand Prix way back in July. In fact it’s scored points at only six races all year.
If Hulkenberg’s lack of podiums can be forgiven for the quality of his machinery, surely so too can Schumacher’s lack of points.
One could also argue that Schumacher’s been saddled with worse circumstances that Magnussen.
He had a chance to score maiden points in Canada after qualifying a superb sixth but retired with an engine failure.
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In Japan he briefly led the race and should’ve been on for an easy top 10, but the team gambled on not changing tyres until very late, which dropped him way out of the points.
And last weekend he picked up car damage and lost places in the Fernando Alonso-Lance Stroll crash that meant he couldn’t follow Magnussen into the top-10 on a one-stop strategy.
Consider too that 10 of Magnussen’s 16-point advantage over Schumacher has come from his well-judged but somewhat fortunate fifth in the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix, when both Red Bull Racing cars retired, and the gap between them doesn’t seem so significant.
His qualifying performances are also clearly improving. Up to the mid-season break Schumacher was qualifying an average of 2.75 places behind Magnussen. Since the break that’s improved to 1.33, and in the last five races he’s got that down to just one place. He’s 3-3 for qualifying in the second half of the year.
His pure speed has also improved relative to his teammate. To the break he was qualifying an average of 0.337 seconds behind Magnussen; since the break he’s been 0.062 seconds ahead.
And while Magnussen has him covered for Q3 appearances (8-4), the Dane is also more likely to be knocked out in Q1 (9-5).
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In light of his improving form and what is a decent, though not spectacular, series of race results, does switching Schumacher out for a driver who hasn’t been racing for three years really add up to being a worthwhile risk? Does Hulkenberg have the hunger to take on a 24-race season at the same level of consistency he demonstrated in the bulk of his career?
It’s no wonder Haas has been sweating on the decision for so long. But the time to make a choice is now fast approaching.
