An exciting Brownlow Medal count is on the cards with six standout candidates to win the AFL’s top individual honour.
This year the trend is clear – start well – with five of the sextet most likely to win the award having a fantastic first half of the season.
With help from Stats Insider, here’s your round-by-round guide to Sunday night’s 2022 Brownlow Medal count.
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The favourites we’re analysing, along with their Pointsbet odds of winning the Brownlow (as of 8pm Wednesday), are:
$3.10 Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
$3.60 Clayton Oliver (Melbourne)
$5.50 Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
$8 Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)
$9 Touk Miller (Gold Coast Suns)
$10 Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
Listed below are their key stats recorded in each round, plus their chances of polling 3 votes in that round per Stats Insider’s calculations.
ROUND 1
Lachie Neale (BL def PA): 31 disposals, 15 contested poss., 7 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def WB): 32 disposals, 15 contested poss., 6 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def RIC): 30 disposals, 8 clearances, 3 goals
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def ADE): 28 disposals, 8 clearances, 7 tackles
Touk Miller (GC def WC): 29 disposals, 18 contested poss., 8 clearances, 1 goal
Christian Petracca (MEL def WB): 38 disposals, 16 contested poss., 9 clearances, 2 goals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Petracca 76%, Cripps 70%, Neale 35%, Brayshaw 15%, Miller 14%, Oliver 6%
ROUND 2
Lachie Neale (BL def ESS): 41 disposals, 22 contested poss., 12 clearances, 2 goals
Clayton Oliver (MEL def GC): 34 disposals, 18 contested poss., 13 clearances, 1 goal
Patrick Cripps (CAR def WB): 35 disposals, 23 contested poss., 11 clearances, 2 goals
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE lost to STK): 40 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal
Touk Miller (GC lost to MEL): 38 disposals, 16 contested poss., 9 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def GC): 40 disposals, 17 contested poss., 6 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Cripps 76%, Petracca 76%, Neale 74%, Brayshaw 62%, Miller 7%, Oliver 5%
ROUND 3
Lachie Neale (BL def NM): 27 disposals, 5 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def ESS): 38 disposals, 18 contested poss., 8 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def HAW): 31 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def WC): 26 disposals, 5 tackles
Touk Miller (GC lost to GWS): 17 disposals
Christian Petracca (MEL def ESS): 21 disposals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Oliver 71%, Cripps 46%, Brayshaw 8%, Neale/Miller/Petracca close to nil
ROUND 4
Lachie Neale (BL lost to GEE): 30 disposals, 21 contested poss., 11 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def PA): 19 disposals, 6 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to GC): 7 disposals, subbed out
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def GWS): 26 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal
Touk Miller (GC def CAR): 32 disposals, 21 contested poss., 8 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def PA): 24 disposals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Miller 6%, Neale 4%, Brayshaw 2%, Oliver/Petracca/Cripps close to nil
ROUND 5
Lachie Neale (BL def COL): 33 disposals, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL def GWS): 31 disposals, 15 contested poss., 8 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def PA): Did not play
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def ESS): 34 disposals, 14 contested poss., 5 clearances, 1 goal
Touk Miller (GC lost to STK): 32 disposals, 16 contested poss., 6 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def GWS): 30 disposals, 7 clearances, 2 goals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Neale 69%, Petracca 52%, Brayshaw 17%, Miller 6%, Oliver 6%, Cripps N/A
ROUND 6
Lachie Neale (BL def GC): 25 disposals, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL def RIC): 41 disposals, 22 contested poss., 13 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to FRE): 32 disposals, 19 contested poss., 8 clearances, 3 goals
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def CAR): 27 disposals, 7 clearances, 8 tackles
Touk Miller (GC lost to BL): 26 disposals, 15 contested poss., 8 clearances, 1 goal
Christian Petracca (MEL def RIC): 25 disposals, 1 goal
Chances of polling 3 votes: Oliver 73%, Cripps 67%, Brayshaw 19%, Neale/Miller/Petracca close to nil
ROUND 7
Lachie Neale (BL def SYD): 37 disposals, 26 contested poss., 11 clearances, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL def HAW): 33 disposals, 5 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def NM): 35 disposals, 18 contested poss., 10 clearances, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def GEE): 28 disposals
Touk Miller (GC lost to COL): 36 disposals, 17 contested poss., 10 clearances, 2 goals
Christian Petracca (MEL def HAW): 31 disposals, 1 goal
Chances of polling 3 votes: Neale 74%, Cripps 74%, Miller 64%, Oliver 11%, Petracca 7%, Brayshaw 6%
ROUND 8
Lachie Neale (BL def WC): 29 disposals, 15 contested poss., 10 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def STK): 38 disposals, 17 contested poss., 8 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def ADE): 35 disposals, 19 contested poss., 10 clearances, 2 goals
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def NM): 34 disposals, 10 clearances, 7 tackles
Touk Miller (GC def SYD): 20 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal
Christian Petracca (MEL def STK): 36 disposals, 16 contested poss.
Chances of polling 3 votes: Brayshaw 71%, Oliver 58%, Cripps 42%, Neale 16%, Petracca 4%, Miller close to nil
ROUND 9
Lachie Neale (BL def ADE): 36 disposals, 19 contested poss., 7 clearances, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL def WC): 29 disposals, 7 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def GWS): 26 disposals, 7 clearances
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE lost to GC): 26 disposals, 10 tackles
Touk Miller (GC def FRE): 34 disposals, 17 contested poss., 10 clearances, 8 tackles
Christian Petracca (MEL def WC): 28 disposals, 2 goals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Petracca 73%, Miller 69%, Neale 66%, Oliver 7%, Cripps/Brayshaw close to nil
ROUND 10
Lachie Neale (BL lost to HAW): 25 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL def NM): 45 disposals, 22 contested poss., 11 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def SYD): 19 disposals, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE lost to COL): 31 disposals, 5 tackles
Touk Miller (GC lost to WB): 19 disposals, 5 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def NM): 30 disposals, 6 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Oliver 74%, Petracca 15%, Neale/Cripps/Brayshaw/Miller close to nil
ROUND 11
Lachie Neale (BL def GWS): 39 disposals, 19 contested poss., 9 clearances, 2 goals
Clayton Oliver (MEL lost to FRE): 36 disposals, 19 contested poss., 5 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to COL): 25 disposals, 15 contested poss., 8 clearances, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def MEL): 28 disposals, 6 clearances
Touk Miller (GC def HAW): 24 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal
Christian Petracca (MEL lost to FRE): 10 disposals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Neale 71%, Brayshaw 22%, Miller 6%, Oliver/Petracca/Cripps close to nil
ROUND 12
Lachie Neale (BL lost to FRE): 31 disposals
Clayton Oliver (MEL lost to SYD): 29 disposals, 19 contested poss., 7 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR on bye): Did not play
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def BL): 39 disposals, 16 contested poss., 9 clearances, 6 tackles
Touk Miller (GC def NM): 32 disposals, 22 contested poss., 13 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL lost to SYD): 25 disposals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Brayshaw 79%, Miller 77%, Neale/Oliver/Petracca close to nil, Cripps N/A
ROUND 13
Lachie Neale (BL def STK): 37 disposals, 16 contested poss., 7 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL lost to COL): 43 disposals, 16 contested poss., 6 clearances, 1 goal
Patrick Cripps (CAR def ESS): 28 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def HAW): 37 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal
Touk Miller (GC on bye): Did not play
Christian Petracca (MEL lost to COL): 32 disposals, 19 contested poss., 8 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Brayshaw 56%, Oliver 44%, Neale 17%, Cripps 8%, Petracca close to nil, Miller N/A
ROUND 14
Lachie Neale (BL on bye): Did not play
Clayton Oliver (MEL on bye): Did not play
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to RIC): 34 disposals, 15 contested poss.
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE on bye): Did not play
Touk Miller (GC def ADE): 24 disposals
Christian Petracca (MEL on bye): Did not play
Chances of polling 3 votes: Cripps/Miller close to nil, Neale/Oliver/Brayshaw/Petracca N/A
ROUND 15
Lachie Neale (BL lost to MEL): 22 disposals, 7 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def BL): 35 disposals, 21 contested poss., 12 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def FRE): 22 disposals, 15 contested poss., 8 clearances
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE lost to CAR): 27 disposals, 5 clearances
Touk Miller (GC lost to PA): 30 disposals, 16 contested poss., 9 clearances, 10 tackles
Christian Petracca (MEL def BL): 31 disposals, 8 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Oliver 12%, Miller 9%, Petracca 5%, Neale/Cripps/Brayshaw close to nil
ROUND 16
Lachie Neale (BL def WB): 33 disposals, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL def ADE): 36 disposals, 19 contested poss., 6 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to STK): 31 disposals, 19 contested poss., 8 clearances
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def PA): 27 disposals, 5 clearances, 11 tackles
Touk Miller (GC lost to COL): 31 disposals, 18 contested poss., 10 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def ADE): 33 disposals, 20 contested poss., 5 clearances, 3 goals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Petracca 70%, Oliver 17%, Miller 12%, Neale 8%, Brayshaw 7%, Cripps close to nil
ROUND 17
Lachie Neale (BL lost to ESS): 21 disposals, 15 contested poss.
Clayton Oliver (MEL lost to GEE): 34 disposals, 23 contested poss., 10 clearances, 1 goal
Patrick Cripps (CAR def WC): 24 disposals, 17 contested poss., 10 clearances, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def STK): 36 disposals, 10 tackles
Touk Miller (GC def RIC): 27 disposals, 16 contested poss., 13 clearances, 1 goal
Christian Petracca (MEL lost to GEE): 21 disposals, 3 goals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Brayshaw 67%, Miller 15%, Cripps 5%, Neale/Oliver/Petracca close to nil
ROUND 18
Lachie Neale (BL def GWS): 26 disposals
Clayton Oliver (MEL def PA): Did not play
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to GEE): 17 disposals, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE lost to SYD): 20 disposals
Touk Miller (GC lost to ESS): 28 disposals, 15 contested poss., 8 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def PA): 30 disposals, 17 contested poss., 10 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Petracca 14%, Neale 3%, Cripps/Brayshaw/Miller close to nil, Oliver N/A
ROUND 19
Lachie Neale (BL def GC): 32 disposals, 18 contested poss., 9 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def WB): 28 disposals, 21 contested poss., 12 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR def GWS): 34 disposals, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE drew RIC): 28 disposals, 7 tackles
Touk Miller (GC lost to BL): 34 disposals
Christian Petracca (MEL def WB): 24 disposals, 18 contested poss., 7 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Miller 59%, Cripps 32%, Neale 17%, Oliver 7%, Brayshaw 2%, Petracca close to nil
ROUND 20
Lachie Neale (BL lost to RIC): 31 disposals, 18 contested poss., 8 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def FRE): 21 disposals, 6 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to ADE): 41 disposals, 21 contested poss., 12 clearances
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE lost to MEL): 30 disposals, 8 tackles
Touk Miller (GC def WC): 31 disposals, 21 contested poss., 15 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def FRE): 30 disposals, 16 contested poss., 6 clearances
Chances of polling 3 votes: Miller 63%, Cripps 16%, Petracca 15%, Neale 2%, Brayshaw 2%, Oliver close to nil
ROUND 21
Lachie Neale (BL def CAR): 32 disposals, 20 contested poss., 9 clearances, 1 goal
Clayton Oliver (MEL lost to COL): 42 disposals, 24 contested poss., 14 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to BL): 24 disposals, 17 contested poss., 7 clearances, 1 goal
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def WB): 21 disposals, 5 clearances, 8 tackles, 1 goal
Touk Miller (GC lost to HAW): 21 disposals, 18 contested poss., 7 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL lost to COL): 36 disposals, 1 goal
Chances of polling 3 votes: Neale 41%, Oliver 10%, Petracca 8%, Cripps/Brayshaw/Miller close to nil
ROUND 22
Lachie Neale (BL def STK): 16 disposals, 8 clearances
Clayton Oliver (MEL def CAR): 29 disposals, 19 contested poss., 6 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to MEL): 26 disposals, 16 contested poss., 10 clearances
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def WC): 22 disposals, 5 tackles, 1 goal
Touk Miller (GC lost to GEE): 36 disposals, 5 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def CAR): 24 disposals, 1 goal
Chances of polling 3 votes: Miller 9%, Oliver 2%, Neale/Cripps/Brayshaw/Petracca close to nil
ROUND 23
Lachie Neale (BL lost to MEL): 29 disposals, 16 contested poss.
Clayton Oliver (MEL def BL): 30 disposals, 20 contested poss., 13 clearances
Patrick Cripps (CAR lost to COL): 35 disposals, 27 contested poss., 12 clearances
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE def GWS): 25 disposals, 2 goals
Touk Miller (GC def NM): 25 disposals, 9 clearances
Christian Petracca (MEL def BL): 23 disposals, 2 goals
Chances of polling 3 votes: Cripps 68%, Oliver 66%, Petracca 9%, Neale 3%, Brayshaw 2%, Miller close to nil
