Round 1 verdict: Draftees most likely to debut immediately at every AFL club in 2024

Many recent draftees will be on the periphery of Round 1 selection in 2023, but some clubs will be keen – or have no choice but – to unleash their prized new recruits immediately.

One of Geelong’s mature-age recruits could be an opening-round debutant, while the match committee teams at Collingwood, Melbourne and North Melbourne could have early selection conundrums.

Foxfooty.com.au assesses every club’s draft haul and predicts the players most likely to debut in Round 1 (excluding those recruits who already have AFL experience).

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ADELAIDE CROWS

The Crows traded up aggressively to get Claremont’s Daniel Curtin, who has the potential to be selected in Adelaide’s Round 1 side with a strong summer. A 197cm beast of a key defender, Curtin starred at national Under 18s level before impressing at WAFL league level, playing six consecutive games for Claremont where his composure and precise kicking was on display. While the Crows have a few tall backs on their list already, Curtin looms as a big upgrade should he blossom at AFL level and could play early in 2024. Charlie Edwards, a big-bodied midfielder, would be a strong chance to play senior footy at some stage next year, but more likely in the middle to latter stages of the season. Defender Oscar Ryan is quick and strong overhead, but is more likely to spend most of 2024 in the SANFL.

BRISBANE LIONS

It’s going to be hard for any of the Lions’ draftees to crack into the 2023 runner-up’s best 23 early next year. Maybe their best chance would be their last pick in Reece Torrent – a powerfully-built winger who played reserves then, ultimately, league footy for Peel Thunder in 2023. But that’s a tough centre-third group to crack into at Brisbane. Western Jets goalkicker Logan Morris, who was their first pick in the national draft, would be a chance, considering his size (192cm) and goalkicking consistency at all levels across the past two years, including two in a one-off VFL game for Werribee. Fellow forward Luke Lloyd played a couple of matches with Frankston in the VFL this year, but is more likely to be eased into the pre-season after missing some matches with a leg injury in 2023. The raw Zane Zakostelsky, who can play in defence and the ruck, has freak athleticism and a high ceiling, but he’s more of a long-term investment.

CARLTON

A lot can happen between now and March, but tough to see any of the Blues’ draftees getting a gig in the senior team at the start of 2024. Glenelg’s Ashton Moir in his 17th year was on track to play primarily SANFL league footy in 2023, but a hip injury and consequent patchy form meant he spent most of the year in the Under 18s and reserves teams. Moir got himself fit late in the year ahead of the combine and will be right to go for the Blues’ pre-season. It seems more likely he’ll enter the senior team selection mix in the middle to latter stages of 2024, but he has exciting, match-winning traits that should make him a Blues fan favourite. Both Billy Wilson and Matt Carroll possess exciting speed off the half-back/wing lines, but again are unlikely to be considered early by Carlton – especially Carroll, who was part of the Sandringham Dragons’ premiership triumph but played just six matches after interruptions through injury.

COLLINGWOOD

The Pies only took two players across all three drafts in speedy midfielder Harry DeMattia and athletic defender Tew Jiath, so there’s not a lot of options, but the club seems bullish about both. Though key building blocks for the future, the promising duo would likely be down the pecking order for the reigning premiers, while Craig McRae has generally prioritised a win-now approach instead of developing his next crop at AFL level (though that may need to change with an ageing list). Plus, not many draftees walk straight into premiership sides. In saying that, both DeMattia and Jiath’s power running games suit McRae’s frenetic brand, so you couldn’t rule them out getting an opportunity at some stage in 2024. In DeMattia’s case, Taylor Adams’ departure could also open up some opportunities in the midfield, though the likes of Finlay Macrae and Edward Allan will be pushing to play more senior games, too. As for Jiath, the Pies’ defence is probably the most settled of any side in the competition, plus it appears Nathan Murphy will be cleared to play despite concussion concerns. “We see (Harry) definitely starting as a high back and there is no doubt we will see him in the midfield at some point in time; that is the plan; that will help us release Nick (Daicos) into the midfield more and gives us a bit more flexibility through that area. TJ is very similar to his brother (Hawks defender Changkuoth Jiath), but probably a little bit further advanced than his brother at the same age. He has got that bit between the teeth. He is an excited young man … we will embrace him,” Collingwood general manager of list management Derek Hine said.

ESSENDON

Asked last month if he reckons he could play Round 1 next year, top-10 draftee Nate Caddy told foxfooty.com.au: “I’d love to play Round 1. I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t … A club will have a plan for me and if that’s not Round 1, that’s where I am. I’ll try and play Round 2, 3, 4, 5 – I don’t care. I just want to play. I’ll just work hard.” At 192cm, Caddy is a genuine power forward who has strong, high-marking ability and plays with key-forward like dynamism and presence. Clearly he has the determination to play early, but his size and 2023 output – including two goals for Carlton’s VFL side in a game against Williamstown – suggest he’ll be in the Round 1 mix with a good pre-season. If the Bombers want some dash and dare off half-back early in 2024, Luamon Lual and Archie Roberts could both provide that, but appear more likely to begin their journeys through the VFL. Rookie ruck Vigo Visentini will spend most of 2024 in the VFL.

FREMANTLE

The Dockers’ best chance here could be Cooper Simpson — an exciting and explosive player that could play a key role on a wing or as a half-forward. Despite being interrupted by injury throughout 2023, Simpson could be on the AFL radar early at Freo, considering he could slot into one of the roles vacated by Liam Henry or Lachie Schultz. Small forward Jack Delean is a genuine goalsneak and constant threat inside 50 at every level he played at this year. Delean kicked 9.3 from four national carnival games and finished with 38 goals from 13 games at SANFL Under 18s level. He then slotted into South Adelaide’s SANFL league team with aplomb, booting two goals in each of his three games. If he can show Justin Longmuir he’s prepared to chase and tackle hard over the pre-season, he’d give himself every chance of an early debut. By his own admission, Ollie Murphy “probably won’t be playing Round 1 next year”, with the 200cm key defender to develop and bide his time for Peel Thunder. Same goes for rookie ruck Odin Jones.

GEELONG CATS

Asked last what he wanted to achieve in 2024, first-round selection Connor O’Sullivan told foxfooty.com.au: “If given the opportunity, I’d probably like to set myself up and possibly play Round 1 next year. That’s something that I can aspire towards and hopefully make me drive a little bit harder during pre-season and stuff like that.” Most 198cm players picked in the draft take time to develop, but O’Sullivan is a competitive and hard-working beast with a terrific set of hands – both in the air and at ground level. And he knows when to stay on his man and when to peel off and intercept – and he’s equally adept at both arts. Don’t rule him out of a Round 1 debut. Elsewhere, the Cats went mature-age heavy, taking Shaun Mannagh, Oliver Wiltshire and Lawson Humphries in the national draft. Mannagh, who’s been a VFL star for several years as a small forward-midfielder, would surely be a strong Round 1 chance, with Wiltshire and Humphries likely to start for the Cats’ VFL side. George Stevens starred for the Cats’ VFL team in a few games this year and is already a strongly-built midfielder, but will probably need to build his tank in the VFL early in the year. Mobile ruck Mitch Edwards will spend most of 2024 playing for the Cats’ reserves side.

GOLD COAST SUNS

The prospect of Jed Walter and Ben King teaming up in the same forward 50 – under the leadership of new coach Damien Hardwick – is mightily tantalising. And it could happen as early as Round 1, although Walter reckons he’ll have to work on his skills and strength over the off-season to be a chance. Maybe he’s talking himself down, for recruiters believe he can make a splash early in 2024. And don’t be surprised if 202cm star Ethan Read pushes his way into the senior team during the early part of the season. He might have to build his strength over the summer, but his aerobic base and skills for a big guy are ridiculous already. Midfielder Jake Rogers and medium defender Will Graham are more likely to start in the Suns’ VFL team, but having said that they had a good run in the same side during their draft year. Rogers’ cleanliness in congestion could just be too hard for match committee to ignore during the early rounds.

GWS GIANTS

As Giants recruiting boss Adrian Caruso told Fox Footy on Monday night, Phoenix Gothard “just looks like a Giants player” with his speed and courage to take the game on. Caruso said Gothard would give the Giants “some real energy and spark in the front half”. That could be as early as Round 1 in 2-2024, especially after the retirement of Daniel Lloyd this year. James Leake, who played in a senior TSL premiership as a 17-year-old, would also be a sneaky Round 1 chance if the Giants are looking to bolster their already strong backline, or they could swing him into the forward line. Both Joe Fonti and Harvey Thomas should start in the VFL, but push for AFL spots in the middle of the season.

HAWTHORN

Pick 5 draftee and exciting small forward Nick Watson will give himself every chance with a strong summer and add much-needed firepower to a Hawks attack alongside fellow smalls Luke Breust and Jack Ginnivan. At this stage, you sense Watson is their only draftee truly in the mix for Round 1, particularly with Chad Wingard’s Achilles injury opening up senior opportunities. Sam Mitchell’s best 25 or so is otherwise relatively settled despite being a developing team. Bodie Ryan, Will McCabe and Calsher Dear should all spend most of the year with Box Hill, but will help the club at either end of the ground in the coming years.

MELBOURNE

The Dees very much drafted for the now, bringing in two prospects in the National Draft that could realistically be playing senior footy in the early rounds in Caleb Windsor and Koltyn Tholstrup. Pick 7 Windsor has temperament and power to play, while the exciting winger has a penetrating kick in attributes Simon Goodwin’s side can use. Meanwhile Tholstrup is a high score involvement high forward, who played the most WAFL league games of the top West Australian prospects, so he’s already had good exposure to playing against bigger, more seasoned bodies. Both players can also help Melbourne’s forward half issues, which has come down more to method than personnel. The Dees also took father-son Kynan Brown – son of Nathan – who had an impressive 2023 campaign across all levels, but will likely be given time to develop and build confidence at VFL level first.

NORTH MELBOURNE

Plenty of new faces at Arden Street. Pick 2 draftee Colby McKercher feels like a lock as perhaps the best pure midfielder in the draft, so Roos fans can look forward to seeing him line up alongside the likes of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin and George Wardlaw. Pick 4 draftee Zane Duursma should be right in the mix too with a strong pre-season and offers them X-factor in the forward half where Alastair Clarkson’s side is still lacking. Riley Hardeman would be a good chance after playing league footy with Swan Districts and he generally seems to have a mature head on his shoulders that wouldn’t be phased by the bright lights. As for Taylor Goad and Will Dawson, they’re likely to spend most of the year in the VFL developing.

PORT ADELAIDE

The Power’s new draftees all appear unlikely to feature in the senior team, at least in the early parts of the season given the strength of Ken Hinkley’s list. But considering Port went into the draft with just Pick 73, it did well to at least have options after trading up the order twice on night two. Tom Anastasopoulos might come into calculations at some stage due to his speed, tackling pressure and goalkicking accuracy, though the Power’s small forward stocks are already settled with Willie Rioli and Jed McEntee plus medium-sized forward Mitch Georgiades to return from injury. Spots are tight as it is.

RICHMOND

The Tigers only used two picks in the national draft – and not until the 40s. But with new coach Adem Yze, it’s a blank canvas for the entire Richmond playing group, so they’ll stake their claim over the summer. Kane McAuliffe might be an option if Yze wants a bigger-bodied mid. Liam Fawcett will meanwhile likely spend 2024 developing his key forward craft in the VFL. Although it’s worth noting the Tigers were linked to both Archer Reid and Logan Morris as potential options that could’ve instantly helped their forward mix, but they were snapped up by West Coast and Brisbane respectively with the first two picks of night two. It might’ve been why Richmond traded down.

ST KILDA

Asked by foxfooty.com.au last month if he thought he could play Round 1 in 2024, Darcy Wilson said: “I’d love to. It’s something that I’ve dreamt of to play in the AFL and to play Round 1 would be an awesome experience. I think I’m capable, I know the work that it takes and I have the passion for footy.” He’s classy yet exciting, zippy yet can run all day – he finished second in the 2km time trial (5:52) at the combine – and daring with the ball in hand yet still efficient. Importantly, Wilson put on 9kg in 2023, so he arrives at the Saints with a decent frame to push for a Round 1 debut. Tall running defender Arie Schoenmaker will probably start 2024 playing for Sandringham, but has the capability to move into the AFL team within the first half of the season with his size and booming left-foot kick. Fellow back Angus Hastie might be in the same boat. Lance Collard and Hugo Garcia are likely to spent most of 2024 in the VFL.

SYDNEY SWANS

Caiden Cleary might be a sneaky chance even though the Swans already brought in Taylor Adams during the trade period to help with their contest and add more midfield depth. Clear went on to impress for the Swans’ VFL team, averaging 17.7 disposals across six matches against bigger bodies, so he’s already had some exposure at the higher levels and in their system. If nothing else, Cleary is the type of player Sydney could potentially call on if it loses a few players to injury, and it could already be without Callum Mills. Will Green will be made to develop his ruck craft in the VFL, with Brodie Grundy to lead the charge there, while you’d expect Peter Ladhams and Lachlan McAndrew are also ahead of the Pick 16. Of course, rucks/talls generally take some time to develop, so Patrick Snell would be in the same boat as a long-term key position prospect.

WEST COAST EAGLES

Harley Reid was given the No. 9 by Nic Naitanui after being drafted on Monday night. Expected the No. 9 jumper to grace the Adelaide Oval on Sunday March 17 when the Eagles play their first match of the 2024 season against the Power. Reid looked like he could’ve played in the AFL this season, with strong VFL performances for both Carlton and Essendon. He is so ready to go. Elsewhere, don’t rule out an early debut for tall midfielder Clay Hall, who the Eagles traded up to draft in the second round. Hall, the son of former Eagles and Cats forward Derek Hall, played nine WAFL league games for Peel Thunder this year and averaged 18.6 disposals. Elsewhere Loch Rawlinson and Harvey Johnston will likely push for a debut later in the year, while raw 203cm forward-ruck Archer Reid will take time in the WAFL.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Pick 6 Ryley Sanders would be a massive Round 1 chance. The Bulldogs did of course trade up for that selection during the trade period, so they clearly value the midfielder, who was a ball magnet at every level he played at in 2023. It’d be wise for the Dogs to start developing their next wave of on-ballers too (even if it’s in a mix of other roles) to start preparing for life after the likes of Tom Liberatore and Adam Treloar. Next year shapes as an important year for the club, so if Sanders can help it on-field, he’ll play. Their other four draftees are likely to start the season in the VFL, with Joel Freijah perhaps the first of the quartet to put his hand up, but he’d need to find consistency at lower level. Father-son draftee Jordan Croft remains a raw prospect despite his bright future. And it’d have to take a Tim English injury for Lachlan Smith to be any chance of getting a senior gig.