The Super Bowl is here. The Chiefs and the Eagles. Two teams with 16-3 records, who have both scored exactly 546 points along the way. And while they’re identical in that regard, there’s one big question hanging over the team in green – Philly – that has been dogging them all season. And it might just prove crucial come Monday.
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When the 2022 schedule was released, Philadelphia fans were jubilant – and not just because of their roster stacked with talent.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the difference was even more stark. That used a model created by the eponymous Warren Sharp using projected win totals from Vegas bookmakers rather than win percentages from the season prior – and therefore taking into account how much teams and their prospects had changed across the off-season.
By that analysis, the Eagles had the second-easiest schedule in the league, while the Chiefs had the hardest!
Of course, stats and predictions before the season can only tell you so much.
After the season, we can look back with the benefit of hindsight – and many more stats. One of the most useful is DVOA – Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It takes into account every single play all season and compares it to a league average. It also gives more weight to plays in certain situations – yards on third downs are more valuable than first-down yardage, while red-zone yards are worth more than the middle of the field. It also considers, as the name suggests, the defensive strength of the opponent – how statistically effective they are at stopping plays.
If all this is too complicated, don’t worry – just understand that DVOA is one of the most advanced statistics in the modern game, telling us whether a team’s defence and offence are better than the league average, based on every single play for the season.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Based on their opponents’ average DVOA from this season, the Eagles ended up with the easiest regular-season schedule. The Chiefs, far from having the hardest schedule in the league, had the fourth easiest.
The Eagles, of course, demolished opponent after opponent this season on their way to a 14-3 regular season record, securing them top spot in the division and a week-one bye in the playoffs.
But all the while, the same criticism kept popping up: their schedule was too easy, their opponents too weak. They hadn’t faced any truly elite teams or rivals, the kind they will come up against on Monday.
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The Eagles lucky year wasn’t quite so simple, however. It was a case of multiple and compounding factors. Their franchise record 8-0 start was aided by their relatively weak schedule early in the season. That in turn allowed them to surge towards the top seed, which in turn allowed them to give star quarterback Jalen Hurts more time to recover when he was injured in December. He missed two games – both losses – that could well have cost them the top seed except for their sterling record (which, again, may have benefited from a more friendly schedule).
He returned in a comfortable win to end the regular season, cruising past a New York Giants B-team that rested most of their starters with the No. 6 seed in the NFC already secured. That included handing practice squad member Davis Webb his first career start at QB.
The bye Philadelphia earned from winning the NFC East and earning the number one seed gave Hurts more time to fully recover before the playoffs, not to mention their other injured players.
And, on that note, the Eagles and the Chiefs have both been remarkably injury-free during the regular season – so count them equally lucky in that regard.
When the Eagles hit the playoffs, we thought the Birds would finally be truly tested by the Giants A-team. But it wasn’t even close. Instead, Philadelphia delivered a wire-to-wire demolition job, finishing 38-7. Hurts was immense, their defence utterly constricting, and their offensive line opened gaping holes for their running backs to waltz into.
But was it another case of a relatively easy matchup? After all, it was the Eagles’ 12th win over the Giants in their last 14 meetings. The Giants were massive overachievers this season, expected to look straight towards a rebuild, with a quarterback in Daniel Jones who managed just the 15th-most passing yards this season and the equal-21st-most passing touchdowns.
Compare that to the Chiefs’ AFC Divisional Playoffs game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (a team whose total points scored vs conceded was +54 in the regular season, compared to the Giants’ -6 points).
The Chiefs’ megastar quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in the first half, forcing him to get an X-ray down in the locker room prior to halftime. He came back and hobbled his way to victory – throwing for two touchdowns and 195 passing yards. It was a tough win against a tough opponent.
And when it came to the AFC and NFC Championship games, fortune again favoured the Eagles.
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San Francisco had forged a remarkable run to the playoffs on the back of third-string quarterback Brock Purdy. Then he exited the game in the first quarter with an elbow injury, forcing them to field Josh Johnson – their FOURTH quarterback of the year. It was a mismatch of the highest order – and then Johnson was concussed in the third quarter. Purdy returned – unable to throw the ball – before the 49ers turned in utter desperation to running back Christian McCaffrey.
As if the one-sided nature of the contest couldn’t be any more clear, the Eagles also benefited from some extremely controversial calls from the whistle-bowlers, including a touchdown drive on the very first series of the game that should have been ruled out.
So the Eagles reached the Super Bowl after cruising through a weak regular season schedule, beating an over-achieving Giants team, then a 49ers side playing their third, fourth, and even fifth quarterbacks of the year.
The Chiefs’ had a much tougher Championship game against the Buffalo Bills, with Mahomes still clearly hampered by that right ankle injury. It took Mahomes’ finest career performance against Buffalo to earn a 23-20 win – 326 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a crucial run at the death. That saw him cop a hit that earned a roughing-the-passer penalty that set up the game-winning 45-yard field goal. And, of course, they were playing against quarterback Josh Allen, a world away from the depleted 49ers.
Chiefs Insider Pete Sweeney told Kansas radio station 610 Sports Radio: “Now, the Eagles have taken care of business, but if you really bring up their schedule and zone in … you look at it and you’re like, man, did they really beat any good teams any time soon? There’s been a lot of teams that you would say, I can’t even believe this team was in the playoffs. And yeah, they earned it as the first seed.
“But the Chiefs had the first seed – they’re playing much tougher teams than the Eagles had to. I think there’s an angle here where the Eagles may be overwhelmed by how solid the Chiefs are.”
Rivals will always look for a way to downplay the achievements of their competitors, especially after a tough loss where injuries played a big part.
So you can forgive San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for calling the Eagles ‘extremely lucky’ for beating his franchise.
Aiyuk told TheSFNiners podcast, “If I were going to bet on this game, I would take everything that I own, get it in cash, and put my money on the Kansas City Chiefs.
“You got to get lucky to win a Super Bowl, and (the Eagles) just got extremely lucky last week, so who’s to say they can’t do it twice?”
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The simple truth is that the Chiefs and the Eagles were the two best teams all season, crushing their opponents again and again – and making the difficult task of winning NFL games look far simpler than it really is.
If they were lucky with the scheduling, the Eagles equally made their own luck – it was their staggeringly good pass-rush defence that got to the 49ers quarterbacks and left them lying on the floor again and again. And before the season even started, the Eagles made their own luck with a series of bold roster trades. This season’s Super Bowl team is completely revamped from the Eagles team that beat Tom Brady’s Patriots in 2018.
But when we get into the Super Bowl, strength of schedule can have a big impact – and the Eagles might be wishing they had more experience against top opposition in the regular season.
Using statistician Jeff Sagarin’s own strength of schedule analysis, since 2000 there has been 13 Super Bowls where the competitors had a strength of schedule difference of 10 or more spots (out of the 32 teams in the NFL).
The team that played the harder schedule is 10-3.
Sagarin’s analysis this season claimed the Chiefs had the 16th-hardest schedule and the Eagles the 31st hardest (or second easiest). It’s a significant differential – and recent history shows that a big differential can be decisive.
Of course, statistics and trends are only as useful as the story they tell. This year, the Eagles’ incredible tale has been marred by accusations their schedule was too easy.
If they win the Super Bowl, the story of their season will be totally different.
