Rise of a premiership dark horse as seasons saved and Swans sink deeper: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

On a weekend of big wins and losses, a premiership dark horse rose and seasons were saved – plus now it’s time to really panic about Sydney.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. COLLINGWOOD (8-1, 129.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 1

Things blew out a little bit more than they should’ve thanks to goalkicking – on expected score the Magpies ‘should’ve won 107-74, instead of 120-55 – but they were never threatened. Really the big winners were heart specialists across Melbourne who won’t be quite as swamped with black-and-white-inspired patients this week. The Blues will obviously be up for the fight this Sunday – jeez that atmosphere’s going to be fun, isn’t it? – but get past them and the Magpies have the Kangaroos and Eagles to come; and thus a clear run at an 11-1 record heading into King’s Birthday. And as David King explained on First Crack on Sunday night, since 2000 all 11 teams who were 11-1 (or better) at least made the preliminary finals. Six won the flag. A cakewalk indeed…

Next game: Carlton at the MCG, Sunday afternoon

2. MELBOURNE (7-2, 143.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 2

We’re not sure if you can really learn much from a game like Saturday’s win over the Hawks. What do you mean the premiership contender with stars in their prime pumped the group where only some of them can easily rent a car?! Now’s the time for the Demons to play up to the level we think they’re at, with games against the Power, an improving Freo, a desperate Carlton and then the blockbuster King’s Birthday clash with Collingwood to come. Let’s see if they have another flop in that bunch like we saw against Essendon a few weeks back. For what it’s worth, missing Harry Petty for a month may hurt more than a lot of non-Melbourne fans think.

Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Friday night

3. BRISBANE LIONS (7-2, 126.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 4

Things were a bit sticky at halftime but a 10-goal second half ensured the Lions wouldn’t be allowing Essendon another win at the Gabba (with the previous one being heavily Covid-related). The benefit of their multi-pronged forward line was in full effect as Joe Daniher stood up single-handedly, similar to how Charlie Cameron has done a couple of times this year. Now it may turn out the Lions haven’t played a 2023 finals side over the last five weeks, but the wins over the Blues and Bombers were still important to build that win total as we head towards the bye. They were the first two of four potential stumbles, with the Pineapple Grapple this week – remember, the Suns got pretty close to winning this fixture last year – before what sounds like an awesome clash with Adelaide in Adelaide.

Next game: Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba, Saturday night

4. GEELONG (5-4, 127.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 3

Even while it was happening, Friday night felt like an expected score game. That is to say, one team overperformed in front of goal, and one team underperformed, enough to influence the result. The Cats probably should’ve been ahead at halftime, when they’d scored 5.11 to the Tigers’ 8.3, and while they kicked straight from there so did their opponents. In the end, on expected score, it should’ve been 80-78 Richmond’s way, not 102-78. So while the Cats underperformed, they had some reasonable excuses, including one of their weakest and least experienced midfields they’ve sent out onto a ground in years. To put it more simply: we’re not panicking at all. We still think the Cats are a top-four team, and should make it there, even if this loss and their 0-3 start have reduced their margin for error.

Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Saturday twilight

5. PORT ADELAIDE (7-2, 112.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 6

So there’s a pattern now. First they pull a close upset (Round 4 vs Sydney, Round 7 vs St Kilda), then they get a tight-but-deserved win (Round 5 vs Bulldogs, Round 8 vs Essendon), and then they pump a bad team (Round 6 vs West Coast, Round 9 vs North Melbourne). Well, next the Power will have to upset Melbourne… then they’d probably be narrow favourites away to Richmond… and then they’d be expected to pump Hawthorn… scripted! This is all scripted! The AI algorithm broke and it’s telling the same story on repeat! (Serious analysis: Beating Melbourne would make the Power a genuine top four threat. We think they lose narrowly to prove they’re just outside that mix, but who knows?)

Next game: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Friday night

6. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-4, 114.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

Performances like Sunday’s are why we kept our faith in the Crows during their two valiant losses to the Magpies and Cats. Their atttack, especially at home, is just deadly this year and it’s a weapon that gives them a really high ceiling. Mark Robinson floated on AFL 360 last night his view they can win the flag, and really, why not? Most analysts are in one of two camps – the closed flag view (only these 2-3 teams, the absolute best, can win it since that’s usually what happens) or the open flag view (any of these 6-8 can win it if they get hot in September, like the 2016 Bulldogs). We’re in the latter camp. What if the Crows just keep getting better and have an incredible month of footy where no-one can stop their sweet kicking and brilliant ball movement? Look, they need to just make the finals first. We’re not saying them winning the flag is at all likely; we’d have at least the five teams ahead of them in these rankings ahead of them in the premiership hunt. But again – that’s their ceiling.

Next game: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium, Saturday afternoon

7. ST KILDA (6-3, 120.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

They’re slipping. While Ross Lyon gave his side a mulligan for the big loss to Adelaide, and we can mostly understand that, it was notable just how bad they were defensively – giving up 19 goals when they hadn’t given up more than 12 before that. Of course, the Crows also kicked straight to make things look worse than they were, but the Saints’ stodgy defence has genuinely slipped over the last month. From Rounds 1 to 5 they were losing just 25 per cent of their defensive one-on-ones; from Rounds 6 to 9, they’ve lost 38 per cent. Part of that is teams working out who exactly they can attack, of course. It would be a surprise if the Giants can exploit the Saints’ back six in the same way Adelaide did, and with Hawthorn the week after that, a repeat of their somewhat infamous 8-3 record at the bye remains on the cards.

Next game: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium, Sunday twilight

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-3, 102.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 8

Another week, another win for the Bulldogs but we’re yet to be convinced they’ve actually leapt from the AFL’s middle class to the upper class. Right now they’re at least living a comfortable upper-middle class life – think Burwood, not Toorak – but with almost half the season gone we can start looking at percentage. And with the Dogs hovering around 100, they’re just not at the level of the seven teams above them in these rankings. Part of it is their defence, which is better but still not good. They rank 13th in the AFL for defending ball movement, and 11th for inside 50s against. Beating an offensively exciting Adelaide side would be another step forwards.

Next game: Adelaide Crows at Mars Stadium, Saturday afternoon

9. ESSENDON (4-5, 102.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

As you can see by their static ranking, we still have quite a bit of belief in the Bombers, despite them losing four in a row – matching the sliding Swans and only better than North Melbourne, West Coast and Hawthorn. Of course, Essendon’s losses have come against four of the best teams in the comp, which is why you need to look deeper than just results. They’re not at the level of Collingwood, Geelong, Port or Brisbane and in 2023 they were never supposed to be. The Tigers are around their level though, and so Saturday night’s Dreamtime clash should be a belter. One thing to look at though is how the Bombers are defending. In an attempt to protect their back six, they fold back incredibly deep and are poor at both intercepts and pressure – it’s completely against the AFL trend. And while it has kept them from leaking as many massive scores as they did last year, it’s giving them horrendous field position (see this excellent data from ex-Bombers analyst Richard Little for more info), which in turn makes it harder for their offence. It’s a little bit of the ol’ cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Next game: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday night

10. RICHMOND (3-5-1, 99.6%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

From 1-5-1, everything was going to have to go right for Richmond to challenge for the finals. Well, beating the reigning premiers – with help from their accuracy, and the Cats’ inaccuracy – counts as that. And now the Richmond Respecters (that’s us) have logged on. They’re still going to need to win a pair of tricky games over the next fortnight, first Dreamtime against the Bombers and then hosting Port Adelaide, but these Tigers at their best are good enough. Jacob Hopper’s calf strain won’t help matters but the return of Toby Nankervis, potentially as soon as this Saturday, would be huge. They’ve got to win at least nine of their last 14 games… let’s play the fixture game. Can they beat Essendon, Port, GWS (away), Fremantle (away), Sydney, West Coast (away), Hawthorn, North Melbourne and maybe the Bulldogs (Marvel) or St Kilda (MCG)? Hmm…

Next game: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday night

11. GOLD COAST SUNS (4-5, 101.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 11

The biggest away win in club history, and biggest overall since 2017, was another step forwards in the Suns’ rise towards respectability this year. Yes it was only West Coast but as we often say, good teams win, but great teams win by a lot. Plus if the Suns are actually going to contend for the eight (which still feels unlikely, but they’re only a game out) they need all the percentage help they can get. They also need to pull a few upsets and winning the Pineapple Grapple would certainly count. They got reasonably close late last year at the Gabba, so if all goes to plan on Saturday night, we’re going to have to talk about Gold Coast as an actual top eight threat. Oh – and our ears really pricked up when we heard David King say on First Crack he thinks Noah Anderson will be the best midfielder in the game “in a matter of moments”. We certainly respect Kingy’s views, so wow.

Next game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday night

12. FREMANTLE (4-5, 98.1%)

Last week’s ranking: 14

We’re not going to say the Dockers are back, and injuries did make things very hard for opponents Sydney on the weekend, but it was still Fremantle’s best win of the year. We really like Justin Longmuir, and how level-headed he is; even if we can understand the emotional reaction of some fans to his nonplussed style. He was right on AFL 360 last week when he explained how things weren’t as bad as they seemed even during their slow start. And they’re still very young; it’s not as if they had to contend this year or they were completely wasting their list. It’s still less than ideal if they’re going to step backwards after finishing fifth last year, but we’ll probably be talking them up in the 2024 pre-season as they continue to grow and mature. Unless they can upset one of the Cats (this week) or Demons (in Round 11) finals still feel extremely unlikely.

Next game: Geelong Cats at Optus Stadium, Saturday twilight

13. CARLTON (4-4-1, 103.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 13

The Blues are what they are, and that’s understandably frustrating to their fans because they should be better. While some might say we’re overrating their talent, we’ve seen this year how valuable coaching can be – from existing coaches like Adelaide’s Matthew Nicks and Port Adelaide’s Ken Hinkley finding improvement within their groups, to returning faces like St Kilda’s Ross Lyon and Essendon’s Brad Scott getting immediate growth from their new teams. The rises of those four teams in particular are a problem for Carlton. Not only are they teams who finished below the Blues last year, but they’re teams directly fighting for the spots in the top eight most felt Carlton could claim. They’re a direct point of comparison. So if you’re of a navy blue persuasion, and you’re watching the rise of the Crows for example, you’re well within your rights to look at the stagnant Blues and their devilish next month (Collingwood, Sydney away, Melbourne, Essendon), and be annoyed. This isn’t a club that has some God-given right to be successful, as some of the off-field powerbrokers would have you believe, but they should still be better than this.

Next game: Collingwood at the MCG, Sunday afternoon

14. SYDNEY SWANS (3-6, 97.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 12

See, this is why we didn’t understand the panic around the Swans last week, coming off a narrow loss to ladder-leading Collingwood. Now it’s time to panic. After getting beaten up in the midfield by Fremantle – and yes, injuries again impacted things – the 2022 Grand Finalists’ season is sinking. They should bounce back against the Kangaroos this week but it’s becoming very hard to see this group turning into what they were last year; they’re sneaking into the eight at best. On the Fox Footy Podcast last week host Ben Waterworth pointed out a 2021 prediction from Leigh Montagna that is looking more and more prescient; he expected the Swans to have a small window of premiership contention in 2022-23, before their older stars left, and then again in 2026 and beyond. It sure seems like the mini-window is closing, but there’s no doubt there’s the young talent on this list for it to open again in the coming years.

Next game: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday early

15. GWS GIANTS (3-6, 85.4%)

Last week’s ranking: 15

After eight weeks of being competitive, even when they probably shouldn’t have been, the dam wall broke and the Giants copped a big loss. That’s fine; it was to the ladder leaders on a ground they rarely get a chance to play (which is a separate problem we won’t discuss here). With the Easter Show period where they don’t get to play at home finally over, Adam Kingsley’s men have an intriguing five weeks heading into the bye, with St Kilda, Richmond and Fremantle visiting the Showgrounds plus trips to face Geelong and North Melbourne (in Tassie). Could they pinch a couple of wins in that bunch and ruin a couple of seasons? Don’t count them out this week if you’re needing to tip a couple of roughies to catch the leader in your comp.

Next game: St Kilda at Giants Stadium, Sunday twilight

16. HAWTHORN (1-8, 60%)

Last week’s ranking: 16

Next game: West Coast Eagles at UTAS Stadium, Sunday early

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-7, 62.9%)

Last week’s ranking: 17

Next game: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, Saturday early

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-8, 60.5%)

Last week’s ranking: 18

Next game: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Sunday early

We’re going to break protocol and talk about three teams at once, because they’re so intrinsically linked right now. Hawks fans took exception to being grouped with the Roos and Eagles in a piece we wrote on Sunday night, which we understand because it doesn’t feel like Sam Mitchell’s men are that bad… but they are. They’re last. They have a percentage of 60. They’ve lost five games by nine goals or more, including to Sydney and Fremantle, who aren’t exactly flying this year. And yet the Hawks should go in hot favourites against West Coast this weekend – unless Covid strikes the group, with Sam Mitchell testing positive early this week – because of their huge advantage playing in Tassie. That’s part one of the Harley Reid Cup, with the three spoon contenders playing a round-robin over the next 10 weeks which should determine who finishes last and earns the superstar prospect. We’re not saying any of these teams are tanking by the way; the Roos are coming out of a year-zero rebuild, the Hawks are just entering one, and the Eagles are stuck in a death loop of injuries where they have to play underdone players, who then get injured, who force them to play underdone players and so on. The players are trying to win. The coaches are thinking a bit more long-term by playing kids, but they’re certainly not trying to win. This is just where these three teams are at… the absolute, rock bottom.