From the moment Daniel Ricciardo revealed that he intended to take a year off racing in 2023, his story has been dominated by one question: what are the odds that he gets back onto the grid in 2024?
Giving up a seat on the grid willingly is rare because of how difficult it is to return to the fast-moving driver market. It’s why reception to Ricciardo’s decision to take a break has been met with such lukewarm reviews among former drivers in particular — everyone wants to see him racing again, but the odds would appear to be stacked against his return.
But while Ricciardo’s aim is to return to Formula 1, he’s also made clear that it isn’t his priority, something he came to understand after being sacked by McLaren in August.
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“At first I was like, ‘Oh, I don’t have a drive next year. I need to figure this out. I need to speak to everyone and try and find out what’s possible’,” Ricciardo told the In the Fast Lane podcast of his first reaction after being sacked by McLaren. “That was kind of the initial — I don’t want to say panic, but the initial kind of emotional reaction.
“Then we got into the triple-header straight after the summer break and I kind of got through that and I was just like, ‘I don’t know yet, but I kind of feel like I actually think maybe this is happening for a reason and I actually think I need a break’.
“Then there were a few more races and I was just like, ‘Yeah. I don’t know definitively if I never want to race again or not, but I know next year to jump into a race seat is not the right thing for me’.
“So then it was trying to figure out what’s the best way to still obviously keep a foot in the door, be involved, but give me that time off.”
But the two goals — to take a break and to get back onto the grid — aren’t unrelated. After two mentally gruelling seasons with McLaren during which he succumbed to overthinking himself into a negative spiral, Ricciardo believes the odds of racing competitively are inextricably linked to taking a year off.
He can’t have one without the other. He must have both.
The evidence, he says, is his 2020 season and the Covid lockdown that preceded it.
“I remember what I felt being in one place for three months,” he said of the time he spent on his West Australian farm during the first pandemic shutdown waiting for the delayed season to begin.
“I got to the point where I was missing the competition so much. Even just being in one place, I was able to train harder, more consistently. There were a lot of positives that I took out of that first spell of Covid.
“I look back at 2020 when we eventually got racing again and it was in my assessment one of my best years in Formula 1. Everything just felt like I was firing on all cylinders, and it felt good.
“I definitely owe some of that to just having that pause and missing it ultimately and kind of craving to come back.”
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It’s a mindset he’s been unable to reobtain since, with Formula 1 cramming more races into smaller windows as it capitalises on the boom in interest.
“The seasons now are so relentless that you don’t actually really get a chance to remove yourself from them,” he said.
“I think that first lockdown was a chance for me to do that, and it was really powerful and beneficial for me.
“So that’s something that I also draw from, which I feel kind of encourages me that next year also could be really positive for me.
“I know myself obviously better than anyone knows me, and I know what I need or what I feel will help me and things like that, so I have confidence in taking the year off, because I know what good it will do for me.”
A RECENT HISTORY OF F1 COMEBACKS
So that’s why taking a year off could help Ricciardo return to Formula 1.
But again: how likely is he to actually pull it off?
Luckily for the West Aussie, there’s a surprisingly long list of recent examples of drivers making comeback, and it wouldn’t be uncharitable to say a fair few of them don’t come as highly rated as him.
Nico Hulkenberg (2010, 2012–19, 2023)
Nico Hulkenberg lost his Formula 1 seat twice: first at Williams at the end of his debut season to the cashed-up Pastor Maldonado and then again at Renault in 2020 to Esteban Ocon.
He was considered unlikely to return, but five impressive stand-in appearances as reserve driver for Racing Point and Aston Martin kept him in the conversation, and he’s been granted an unlikely return with Haas for 2023 as a safe pair of hands.
Kevin Magnussen (2014, 2016–20, 2022–present)
Kevin Magnussen was dropped from McLaren after his debut 2014 season to make room for Fernando Alonso but fashioned a return a year later with Renault before switching to Haas.
He was then axed by Haas at the end of 2020 in a driver clean-out to keep the team afloat, but he was brought back into the fold only 12 months later to replace Nikita Mazepin.
He scored points in his first race back, and he’s credited his time out of the sport for revitalising him by showing him that there is a life beyond Formula 1.
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Fernando Alonso (2001, 2003–2018, 2021–present)
Fernando Alonso made a soft F1 retirement at the end of 2018, having grown frustrated with McLaren’s Honda era.
He spent the next two years in the World Endurance Championship and making cameos in other categories before being tempted back to F1 to replace Ricciardo at Alpine.
He took time to readjust, but this season was one of the most competitive of his post-championship career.
Esteban Ocon (2016–18, 2020–present)
Esteban Ocon lost his seat at Racing Point to Lance Stroll at the end of 2018 after the team collapsed and was reconstituted by the Canadian’s father, Lawrence Stroll.
The Frenchman was still a Mercedes-backed driver managed by Toto Wolff and so spent a year as the German team’s reserve. Wolff negotiated him into a seat at Renault in 2020, though it came at the cost of losing his Mercedes-linked status. He’s since earnt a long contract extension taking him to the end of 2024.
“There is certainly something [in that],” Ricciardo said when asked if he took heart from four straight years of F1 comebacks.
“When you see other examples — and pretty good examples; Alonso or Magnussen, for example — that’s kind of reassuring.
“We’re all wired differently, and the year off could have a different effect on all of us, but actually I look at Alonso, for example, someone who loves racing all the time, and him having that time off and coming back — I feel like for me to really remove myself a bit more than maybe what he would have done will be even more powerful for me personally and what I feel I benefit from.
“That sort of stuff encourages me. It’s the icing on the cake in terms of me feeling like I’ve done the right thing.”
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IS THERE A CHANCE HE WON’T WANT TO COME BACK?
All that said, there’s the oft-cited example of Mika Häkkinen’s sabbatical — from which the Finn never returned — as a reason to think this could be the last we’ve seen of Ricciardo.
They key difference of course is that Häkkinen always wanted to call it a retirement, with only McLaren boss Ron Dennis convincing him to call it a sabbatical to take time to think about his future. Less than a year later he confirmed he wouldn’t return to F1.
The reasons are different — Häkkinen had reached the summit with two world championships and knew he didn’t have the hunger to continue, whereas Ricciardo says he has more to give — but might there still be a chance Daniel realises that there’s a life beyond Formula 1 and that he’s okay to not go back?
“I think that’s also the beauty in next year and having that time off,” he admitted. “It’ll give me that hard answer, what I truly want.”
But he added that he didn’t think his competitive nature would allow him to walk away.
“That is the one word that got me into this, it’s competition,” he said.
“Yes, I love the speed of F1 and all the other stuff that comes with it, but ultimately why I race is because I love competing. Even when I was a kid, before I was racing anything, I was competing in other things. I would throw tantrums if I would lose. Everything was a competition to me.
“That’s where there’s an element of me which is really excited to remove an element of competition in my life next year and just kind of be a little more balanced and not go through the highs, the lows and all of that.”
“But I’ve loved competition my whole life, so I don’t think that will fade away.
“I think I’ll do things next year which give me an adrenaline rush or I’ll find activities to get my highs from, but I would be very, very surprised if I watch races, especially when I’m at the track, and I’m not wishing I was out there and not wishing I was competing and stuff like that.
“Also I could watch round 1 and I’ll be like, ‘I don’t want to sit out this whole year’, and that will just build into something probably really positive for me over the course of 2023, and then if an opportunity arises in 2024, I feel like I’ll just be foaming at the mouth.”
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But “if an opportunity arises” is the key component. Because unlike the decisions he’s made since being dropped by McLaren, overcoming that final hurdle will be completely beyond his control.
It’s in the hands of the driver market, which has a habit of moving in mysterious ways.
Whether that works in his favour, we’ll have to wait and see.
