The Eels have rattled the Panthers this season as the only side to beat them twice and they have the blueprint to make it a trifecta on Friday night.
Penrith host their arch rivals to open the finals and the winner earns a preliminary final berth while the loser heads to an elimination final.
Parramatta handed Ivan Cleary’s Panthers their first loss of the season in Round 9 with a gutsy 22-20 victory, before thrashing the reigning premiers 34-10 in Round 20.
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Panthers halfback Nathan Cleary was sent off in that second fixture for spear tackling Dylan Brown and returns from his five-week suspension on Friday night.
Penrith have been near perfect in 2022 and locked the minor premiership up with two weeks to spare — but are yet to beat the Eels.
While other coaches may be scratching their head wondering how they can beat the reigning premiers, Parramatta look to have cracked the code.
Fox League’s Cooper Cronk believes the Eels have been able to best the Panthers this season by dominating three key factors.
Here foxsports.com.au breaks down how the Eels have been able to beat the best team in the competition.
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FACTOR 1: THE MIDDLE
The Eels pride themselves on their forward pack’s no-nonsense approach.
The front row pairing of Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard strikes fear into the hearts of rivals and their impact is crucial to Parramatta’s success.
In both wins over the Panthers this season, the pair have combined for over 270 running metres and recorded nine tackle breaks.
Cronk believes a strong start in the middle forwards is crucial to besting Penrith, allowing the Eels to get their “mojo” and fire on all cylinders.
“If you are going to beat a team like Penrith, you need to match them in the areas they excel at,” Cronk said.
“I think the physicality of Parramatta in those victories, RCG and Junior Paulo really bashing down the front door, gaining momentum.
“For Parramatta, they seem like if they get their mojo in their power forward pack, that filters through the rest of the team.
“I think the start of Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard have a big confidence and emotional attachment to the way Parramatta perform.
“If they start well, the rest of the Eels team feel like they are in the contest, and if they don’t then they feel like they need to go to other options and cut corners, going away from what works for them.”
FACTOR 2: SHUT CLEARY DOWN
Every team aims to shut down their opposition’s best player — but in the case of Nathan Cleary, it usually decides the result.
Cleary is Penrith’s mastermind and his kicking game backs teams into corners consistently.
The 24-year-old is one of the world’s best players, which puts a target on his back every week and for the Eels are no exception.
“One of the keys to stopping Penrith is competing in all the areas they do well at, pressure Cleary,” Cronk said.
In this year’s Origin, the Maroons came away with stunning upset in the series decider after targeting Blues halfback Cleary all night.
Cronk explained that line speed around the ruck will be a crucial factor, likening the approach to how Queensland were able to starve NSW’s playmakers of time.
No doubt, Brad Arthur would have been taking notes.
“You have to put pressure on Cleary’s kicking game, like Queensland did in Origin,” Cronk said.
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“What they did, they were super intense and aggressive with their line-speed around the ruck.
“They pressured Cleary with their last plays and gave him limited space, and again it came down to moments.”
But Cronk issued an ominous warning to the Eels ahead of Cleary’s return from suspension.
“He is the type of player that is plotting and scheming his return, he is not the type of kid to be sitting on the lounge watching Netflix,” Cronk said.
“He has been every waking minute, doing something to make himself better.
“He is a star of the competition and while it isn’t ideal to be sidelined for a period of time, someone like Nathan will be using this time to his advantage and could be primed for a return to dominate the comp.”
FACTOR 3: WIN THE MOMENTS
Big games come down to big moments.
Finals have long been decided by players putting their hand up and owning their moment.
Whether it be Johnathan Thurston kicking a match-winning field goal, or Scott Sattler’s try-saver – these plays decide the game.
Cronk explained in the Panthers and Eels first clash this season, Parramatta were able to deliver in the big moments when the game was tight.
“Parramatta and Penrith probably had similar completion rates, defensively Parramatta scrambled well and defended incredibly well in those games,” Cronk said.
“You have to have more of your jerseys in the picture in the big moments.
“The first game was close, and Parramatta scored two tries in quick succession, one from a bomb that Dylan Edwards didn’t catch, and the other a Ryan Matterson step.
“When I say about moments, that game was close, the Eels got given half an opportunity and took both of them.”
Cronk also believes to beat the Panthers, Parramatta need to pick out the “little signs” that highlight instability.
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In the Origin decider, the Blues were under pressure and two Penrith players made crucial mistakes.
Cronk believes Stephen Crichton and Jarome Luai’s late brain fades came from scoreboard pressure.
“When big games are close, scoreboard pressure builds, and I think one of the first signs that pressure was building was Luai threw a ball off his own tryline that went into touch,” Cronk said.
“Then Stephen Crichton off-loaded the ball back into the in-goal and Angus Crichton dived back on it.
“They are little victories that say the opposition is second guessing themselves, so whether it is NSW or Penrith, you have got to do the hard parts with more intensity over longer periods of time.
“Then when it goes to the deep end of the game, other teams start second guessing themselves.
“When you see those little signs, it is time to strike.”
HOW GOOD ARE THE PANTHERS?
Rarely in the NRL history has a side been so dominant. They’ve won 62 of their past 75 games and clinched two of the past three minor premierships.
The Panthers are $2.25 favourites to win back-to-back premierships, dwarfing the next line of betting – their bogey team the Eels at $6.
Penrith’s success comes down to one element of their game according to four-time premiership winner Cronk.
“The majority of their success comes down to how physically prepared they are,” Cronk told foxsports.com.au.
“Their training intensity is near or above game pace, because when they get into game mode, it seems when teams start tiring or going backward, they stay consistent or even go to another level.
“Their system defensively has stacked up for a long period of time, the best defensive team for two or three years straight.
“What their defence does, because it is so robotic and systematic, even if you aren’t playing well, if you do the hard parts of the game like defence, you can leave a game close or keep it close for someone to come up with a play to win it.
“It is going to be difficult for any team to break down Penrith because they are so well drilled and physically ready.”
But Parramatta have been able to do it not once but twice this season and Penrith’s star-studded line-up must learn from the losses.
