Dave Rennie was on the money about one thing when he announced his team to take on the All Blacks for Thursday’s Bledisloe Cup opener in Melbourne.
The Wallabies coach said they were “confident” they could beat anyone “when we perform well”.
He is right, the Wallabies can beat any international side in Test rugby. The question is, however, which Wallabies side will turn up?
Consistency has been the Wallabies’ Achilles heel over the past decade and is reflected by the winning percentages of the three most recent coaches – Ewen McKenzie, Michael Cheika (50 per cent) and Rennie (40.7 per cent) – since Robbie Deans (58.1 per cent) was sacked in mid-2013.
Those numbers have accurately reflected the Wallabies’ past four Tests, where they had fine victories over Argentina and South Africa but also slumped to unflattering defeats against the same opposition.
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Making a fast start will be essential. Under Rennie, the Wallabies have won just two of 15 Tests when trailing at half-time. And Rennie’s side conceded the first points in six of seven Tests this year.
Key to defeating the All Blacks will be winning the collision area.
The Wallabies’ three victories this year were built on the back of quick ball at the ruck, which allowed Nic White to bounce out at halfback.
It allowed Noah Lolesio to finish the opening Test of the year against England in Perth by standing flatter and running, while against South Africa in Adelaide he ran with the ball with conviction.
While in Quade Cooper’s sole game against Argentina in Mendoza he was able to run with the ball in two hands and put Jordan Petaia into open space. Later in that match, Hunter Paisami also found space, with the Los Pumas defence on their heels.
Yet, during the heavy defeat to the Springboks earlier this month, the Wallabies were smashed in the collision and consequently lost the breakdown battle on both sides of the ball. It allowed Siya Kolisi to dominate the area, with the Springboks captain and flanker twice stealing the ball, with Matt Philip in the sin bin inside the opening 20 minutes, thereby stifling the Wallabies’ attack.
Rennie has attempted to address the issue by opting for the bigger presence of Pete Samu at openside flanker, with Fraser McReight asked to provide tempo and onball presence in the second half.
By making the change at No. 7 however, the Wallabies have removed their best source of winning the ball back, with McReight not only leading the tackle count (35) throughout the Rugby Championship but also pilfers (2).
Playing the percentages and winning the battle up front will be essential against Ian Foster’s All Blacks. If they can’t measure up front, squeeze the All Blacks in tight and operate their rolling maul successfully, it won’t matter who is in the backline.
All the focus has naturally been on Bernard Foley’s return after a three-year Test exile, with many bemoaning the state of the game in Australia that Rennie felt compelled to call-up the former Waratah rather than turning to the next generation of playmakers in the absence of Cooper (Achilles), Lolesio (concussion) and O’Connor (dropped/ankle).
The reality is Foley, like many of his teammates of the time, are unfairly judged by the mess the previous administrations left the game in.
From the drawn-out culling of the Western Force to the Israel Folau saga that divided the Wallabies, Foley was the chief playmaker in a side that was pulling in different areas.
As was seen by the Manly Sea Eagles’ cliff dive in the NRL this year following their jersey controversy, where they failed to win a game in seven matches after pushing ahead with a pride-inspired strip, off-field issues can prove destabilising.
Foley was overplayed at the Waratahs and burned out when he left Australian rugby at the end of 2019, but he was still the man who kicked NSW to their first Super Rugby title in 2014 and led the Wallabies to a World Cup final a year later.
Since moving to Japan he has become rejuvenated and learned from playing inside former All Blacks star Ryan Crotty.
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It says something about the game in Australia that players, particularly in the backs, continually return home “better” players when they spend time overseas, while others like Rory Arnold, Will Skelton and Scott Fardy are considered national treasures by their clubs overseas and seldom come back.
At 33, he is four years younger than Johnny Sexton and a year younger than Dan Carter when he led the All Blacks to World Cup glory in 2015. He is also the same age as Cooper was when the maligned playmaker carved out his own incredible comeback.
Jake Gordon’s selection will help Foley, with the halves pairing previously teaming up at the Waratahs. He should pose a threat to the All Blacks’ big men around the ruck, with his sniping ability a feature of his game.
The concern for the Wallabies is their lack of size in the backs, with Tom Wright the tallest at 1.86m tall.
With Samu Kerevi injured and Suliasi Vunivalu bizarrely being looked over, the Wallabies don’t have a single back with any height or significant size. It is an area the All Blacks could exploit, with Jordie Barrett’s height and Caleb Clarke size forces to be reckoned with.
While the All Blacks are coming off a 53-3 victory over Argentina, Australia’s trans-Tasman rivals have shown they are fallible.
No longer do they have an aura about them, while selection has dogged them since midway through the last World Cup cycle.
Cracks, meanwhile, have appeared when pressure has been exerted for long periods of time. Scoreboard pressure will be essential for the Wallabies to succeed under the roof in Melbourne.
If the Wallabies can continually tick the scoreboard over, they stand a chance. If they can’t, the Bledisloe Cup will remain on the other side of the ditch for the foreseeable future.
