By Brad Gray
RACE 1 – 11.20AM: ATC BOOKMAKERS RECOGNITION DAY HANDICAP (1100m)
Like what we’ve seen from 5. Armed Forces in his two trials. Chris Waller swept the two-year-old group 1s over the Sydney autumn but, ominously for his rival trainers, this is typically when his second wave of gun juveniles emerges. Armed Forces has shown good natural speed in his heats before taking cover and hitting the line. The barrier looks perfect giving Joao Moreira the chance to park in the first dozen. 1. Sovereign Fund has the benefit of race experience and he has already won two races. That saw him jump a $6.50 chance in the 2YO Magic Millions Classic. It didn’t work out for him there, covering ground from the wide draw. He has trialled nicely since then, winning a Randwick heat. He’ll settle in the first couple. 11. Dipsy Doodle ran third in a deep Kensington midweeker before dominating her rivals at Warwick Farm. It simply comes down to how much work she is forced to do to cross.
How to play it: Armed Forces to win.
Spiranac, who looks like value in the fifth at Rosehill on Saturday, wins the Tamworth Country Championships in 2021 Credit: Bradleys
RACE 2 – 11.55AM: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1400m)
2. Preemptory was given a perfect ride to win at Randwick last start but he was dominant at the finish. If anything, he was going away again on the line. That was despite being eight weeks between runs. The four-year-old is even better set up out to 1400m with that run under his belt. He had been dogged by bad luck prior to last start, which he brings upon himself with his racing style, but few here can match his finish – as we saw last start – when he gets clear running. 1. Bianco Vilano made up a stack of late ground in the Country Championships Final last start, ploughing through the heavy conditions. He matched motors with I’ve Bean Tryin’ in the concluding stages and we’ve seen that horse come out and win a benchmark race since while the winner Sizzle Minizzle ran fourth in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Has the full 63.5kg to lump.
How to play it: Preemptory to win.
RACE 3 – 12.30PM: MIDWAY HCP (1500m)
You simply have to overlook the last start performance of 10. Miracle Spin. It was too bad to be true. The Matthew Smith-trained gelding was forced to trial after that performance and looks to be back on track, cruising to the line at Warwick Farm. He has been given four weeks to cope with the drop back from 2200m to 1500m. It was over this same track and trip first-up that he should have won a Midway, if not for bombing the start. He has started no longer than $6.50 in any three of those starts. Happy to take the punt that he can reproduce his best form in a race with a dozen genuine winning chances. The Four Pillars winner 1. Oakfield Arrow can float in and out of form but she’s well set up to surprise at odds once more. She won a Midway third-up last preparation coming off a similar second-up run. The only difference this time in is that it was in group race.
How to play it: Miracle Spin each-way.
RACE 4 – 1.05PM: ALAN DAVIDSON HANDICAP (1200m)
18. Anagain’s strike rate warns that she is a mare you need to approach with caution. However, there is enough in her early price to take the leap of faith that she can bring up the second career win that has proven so elusive. It’s not due to a lack of talent, that’s for sure. Her racing style just requires a lot to go her way. Like the scenario on Saturday where she can be cuddled up for much of the race from the low draw before being ridden for luck late. If she gets the splits at the right time, her rivals will know she is there as she possesses a brilliant turn of foot. 10. Flag Of Honour is entitled to be favourite on the depth of his three-year-old form over the spring with fourths behind names like Golden Mile, Williamsburg and Communist. Finds James McDonald first-up and has trialled well, winning his latest heat at Gosford. 14. Lavish Empire has more upside than any of his rivals with just three starts to his name.
How to play it: Anagain each-way.
RACE 5 – 1.40PM: HENRY NOONAN HANDICAP (1200m)
The track condition is significant for 9. Spiranac. The drier the better. The lightly-raced six-year-old hasn’t been given much respect in the early market, posted as the race outsider. Her first-up run last preparation was outstanding at Rosehill. That was over 1100m from last in the run and after a 44-week lay-off. Her run was equal to that of the winner 3. Fox Fighter on merit. Fox Fighter is a sectional star every time he runs. It was no different first-up at Hawkesbury, savaging the line behind Malkovich in near-track record time. His Rosehill record reads 7:2-1-3. 4. Conscript is 35 weeks between runs with no official trial but he maps to get a lovely drag into the race via 8. Kipsbay. He doesn’t grab any headlines but his record of 17:7-2-3 says he should never be underestimated.
How to play it: Spiranac to win.
RACE 6 – 2.15PM: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1800m)
10. Solar Apex got too far back in the Muswellbrook Cup first-up but he worked to the line to finish midfield. The five-year-old has been much more dynamic on top of the ground in his past couple of preparations. Like the four weeks between runs as the son of Deep Impact has raced well fresh in the past. Throw into the mix Joao Moreira jumping on and the low gate, and it looks to be a scenario where Solar Apex can figure in the finish. 9. Shameless Miss can show up fresh over 1800m. She was excellent first-up last preparation over 1400m taking ground off Superium and Coal Crusher. Has trialled well on two occasions. 3. Quality Time has a fitness advantage over his two aforementioned stablemates. Would’ve liked to have seen a touch more from him in the JRA Plate but perhaps we blame the brutal lead speed.
How to play it: Solar Apex each-way.
RACE 7 – 2.55PM: VALE DEAN HOLLAND HANDICAP (1500m)
Can’t find a lot speed in this race so the wide gate mightn’t be as daunting as it looks on paper for 2. Kayobi. He has offset wide draws in the past with positive rides. The four-year-old jumped a firm favourite in the Provincial Midway Championships Final three weeks ago and despite travelling sweetly in the run, he didn’t let down on the heavy track. Want to give him another chance back on firmer footing. 8. Floating had his chance at Randwick in Midway company last start but he too produced a grinding finish to work home into third without really threatening. Out to 1500m and onto a drier track can see him bounce back too. James McDonald sticks. The blinkers go back on 10. Miss Madison and she won second-up last preparation, beating Short Shorts off a similar set-up. First-up, tickover trial, bang. She is dangerous at big odds.
How to play it: Kayobi to win.
Sonora won at Randwick in February and gets another favourable set-up on Saturday.Credit: Getty
RACE 8 – 3.35PM: NSW BOOKMAKERS CO-OP HANDICAP (1300m)
10. Sonora maps to get the perfect run. That’s largely why she finds herself on top in a very competitive mares race. The four-year-old was brilliant when winning over 1300m at Randwick last preparation, in what was a near-identical race to this. That performance was fourth-up. She is first up here but is only nine weeks between runs so should hold some residual fitness. The daughter of So You Think has trialled since then and although beaten almost seven lengths, liked how she coasted to the line in a fast heat behind two of the quickest sprinters in Sydney in Malkovich and Spaceboy. 2. Short Shorts was undone by a heavy track at Randwick last start. That saw her fail to replicate her blistering first-up win at Kembla Grange. One of her career-best performances came at Rosehill last preparation, over 1400m. She went straight to the front and just kept on running. It’ll be catch me if you can from barrier 1.
How to play it: Sonora to win.
RACE 9 – 4.15PM: KERRIE BORGER HANDICAP (1400m)
The market has been quick to dismiss the chances of 3. Military Expert. He had so much against him first-up and was entitled to fade out of the finish. He was posted deep throughout and it was on a track closer to heavy than soft. As for his chances tomorrow, he has drawn to settle in the first couple and he has improved sharply second-up in his past two campaigns. Second-up last preparation he gapped Uncle Bryn and So Si Bon before being narrowly beaten by Gentleman Roy and then running third in the group 1 Toorak. Long story short, he is better than a benchmark level horse but wasn’t given the chance to show that first-up. The progress 7. Democracy Manifest continues to make suggests that he’ll find himself in group races shortly too. That has been built into his price here, however. Hard to beat but this is tougher.
How to play it: Military Expert to win.
RACE 10 – 4.50PM: BILL MURPHY HANDICAP (1300m)
We’ll have nine races to assess how the track is playing to this point so if it’s advantage leaders 11. Huesca will be very hard to beat. If he had mustered quicker last start, he’d have won. The four-year old just couldn’t get going in the early stages to find the front. That saw him settle in an awkward spot just worse than midfield without any cover. Thought his effort to still only be beaten by a narrow margin was courageous. 10. Robusto’s two career wins have been over 1300m. Should get the chance to camp midfield and blend into the race at the right time. He looks dangerous fresh given the set-up. 3. Excelladus attacked the line to win over an unsuitable 1100m journey first-up at Warwick Farm which flags that he has returned as well as ever. This is more in his sweet spot as far as distance ranges go. The knock is that he does have a history of underperforming second-up.
How to play it: Huesca to win.
