By Nick Berney
Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 – 12.40PM: MUSWELLBROOK COAL COMPANY COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN HANDICAP (1280m)
12. Neddy wasn’t suited to settling at the rear of the field in a very slow tempo last start at Narromine, but he charged home to run second and ran some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting. He races well on a quick back-up, receives blinkers for the first time and the bigger track suits. Additionally, he brings a competitive last-start figure and can be in the finish.
Eight races are set down for Friday at Muswellbrook.Credit: Fairfax Media
Dangers: Expecting sharp improvement from 4. Gumagawax who had factors against last start at Newcastle in a high-rating race. He is still learning, but the extra ground is ideal and is a knockout chance. 10. Crux Rebellion finally struck a dry track first-up at Port Macquarie and tried hard in defeat after racing wide. He will be fitter for that effort and will roll forward. 2. Whoforgotspud will have benefited from race experience and Aaron Bullock sticks. Market watch on debutant 1. Mazita, who won a recent trial at this track.
How to play it: Neddy and Gumagawax both to win.
Odds and Evens: Evens.
Race 2 – 1.15PM: GODOLPHIN TIARA BENCHMARK 74 SHOWCASE HANDICAP (1450m)
4. Diva Diva had the blinkers on for the first-time last start at Wyong, but she had excuses. The mare was held up at a key stage, losing momentum, but to her credit, she closed off well enough in a solid time race relative to the day. She brings strong metropolitan/provincial form lines, maps to have all favours from barrier one and is proven at the distance.
Dangers: Forget 2. Denetta’s last start in the Polytrack Provincial-Midway Championship Final (1400m), where she was 35 days between runs and struck a very testing track. She drops significantly in grade and has previously won at this track. 5. What A Peach has been racing well this campaign and receives winkers for the first time. She maps to stalk the pace and expect her to sprint hard. 6. Takara Star has run time, winning her last two starts. She jumps sharply in distance and grade but brings the best last-start figure. 3. Maly Malt won a recent trial under a tight hold.
How to play it: Diva Diva to win.
Odds and Evens: Evens.
Race 3 – 1.50PM: BOYLE ESTATE AGENTS PROFESSIONALS MUSWELLBROOK SHOWCASE BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1750m)
6. Turnaround Time has progressed well this preparation from a ratings perspective and is ready to peak fourth-up with a strong platform. The gelding raced wide throughout last start at Mudgee but kept trying to the line. He is a rock-hard fit, proven at the distance and receives a significant barrier change allowing him to have a much more economical run through transit. Each-way.
Dangers: 3. Midori Fuji raced well first-up at this track, then had no luck last start at Orange, albeit starting a well-fancied $2.50 favourite. He is still relatively lightly raced and expect improvement third-up. 2. Jimmy Manolo is a consistent galloper and a last-start winner. 10. Rothrock bolted in last start at Port Macquarie and was eased down. She must step up in grade but will roll forward and give a sight. 5. Heika was heavily backed on debut and can excel at 1750m but has been well-found in early markets.
How to play it: Turnaround Time each-way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 4 – 2.25PM: SCONE EQUINE HOSPITAL SHOWCASE STAR KINGDOM 2YO C&G HANDICAP (1000m)
1. Chevron brings a significant race experience edge into this assignment and has trialled well recently at Randwick under a tight hold. The colt has strong form lines around names like Red Resistance and Cafe Millenium from last preparation. He looks to have returned improved, and with a positive race set-up expect him to race well fresh.
Dangers: 6. Metallic Ruler showed style to win a recent trial at Beaumont. He did it easily and can sprint hard on debut from a soft draw. 2. Edited By got too far back first-up at Hawkesbury but ran on well, indicating he could step off that performance. 3. Kiribati has trialled well enough and is a key late-market watch.
How to play it: Chevron to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 5 – 3.05PM: ARROWFIELD SHOWCASE MISS FINLAND 2YO FILLIES HANDICAP (1000m)
1. Line Of Law resumes after a 139-day break and has won two trials leading into this. First-up last prep, she showed speed leading at a genuine tempo and gave a sight in a high-rating race. Further, repeating that effort/figure will make her hard to beat in this event. Expect her to roll forward from barrier one, and she gets in well at the weights after the claim for apprentice Jett Stanley.
Dangers: Debutantes 8. Lyrical Beauty and 4. Altisima won recent trials at Muswellbrook and are both wound up to run well here. Key late market watches. 2. Gerety won well first-up last prep at Coffs Harbour and was immediately spelled. Another first starter from the Kris Lees yard is 5. Bangetta, who has a favourable map.
How to play it: Line Of Law to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 6 – 3.40PM: MANGOOLA COAL COUNTRY BOOSTED SHOWCASE BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP
(1280m)
Lightly raced improver 6. Kissaki is on an upwards ratings spiral, and all key indicators suggest she can step off her last performance. The three-year-old bolted in to score at this track/distance 18 days ago and ran fast overall time relative to the day after adjustments. Further, the clock backed her visual acceleration and late strength, with the filly recording the fastest final 200m split of the meeting. She has a positive race set-up, brings the best last-start figure and will be hard to beat with even luck.
Dangers: 1. Remorseless has had factors against his past two starts in stronger grades, and he can bounce back here. Moreover, he is coming out of time/sectional merit races and back to a dry surface suits. 5. Shen Gui led at a fast pace last start at this track/distance and battled well to hold fourth. 9. Holly Road raced in the inferior ground last start and will be fitter for that effort. Add 4. Lucifer’s Reward to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Kissaki to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 7 – 4.20PM: MUSWELLBROOK RSL SHOWCASE LONE PINE CHARGE (1000m)
4. Le Melody, who resumes, won a trial at Scone in style and ran the fastest overall time relative to the morning. Further, she went through the line full of energy and defeated Quilting, who subsequently raced well at the metropolitan level. The Cody Morgan-trained galloper has a fantastic record/SP profile, and her peak figures have come first-up on the dry ground. The four-year-old will roll forward from gate one and be hard to catch.
Dangers: 5. Luna Rocks is another lightly raced galloper who has also trialled well. She has talent, maps to have all favours and a definite chance. 3. Big Happiness fended off late challengers to score first-up last campaign at Gosford and 6. Upside brings a race fitness edge. Market watch 1. Tucson Valley who has a big weight but can give a sight.
How to play it: Le Melody to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Race 8 – 4.55PM: VIATEK NSW JERRYS PLAINS CUP BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1500m)
1. Media Man has a strong record at this track/distance, and he raced well last start, albeit getting too far back in the run. He has been consistent in stronger grades all campaign and receives a much more positive race set-up here. The five-year-old receives a significant barrier change allowing him to settle closer, plus Aaron Bullock rides for the first time and has multiple winning ratings. In addition, the anticipated genuine tempo will suit and expect him to savage the line. Each-way.
Dangers: 4. Bob is first-up and has had two solid trials. He isn’t a usual proven fresh performer but is well placed here and has strong form lines. 12. Elegant Poetess was 38 days between runs last start and ran on well. She is improving throughout her prep and the dry track suits. 9. Blue Jager is suited second-up and 3. Gold Witness is on a 10-day back-up with a positive map.
How to play it: Media Man each-way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
BEST BETS
R7 4. LE MELODY
R4 1. CHEVRON
BEST VALUE
R1 12. NEDDY and 4. GUMAGAWAX
