By Neil Evans
Track likely improving Soft 6 and rail out 3m
Race 1 – 12.50pm: 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m)
We start with the three-year-old sprinters on an improving track that should get well back into that middle soft range. Testing affair with a few chances, although at some value, like Warwick Farm-based 8. Good Lieutenant second-up and back in distance. Failed to run home in a more than handy maiden when resuming and drawn in a slower part of the track. Fitter now, and much better suited here getting to the outside of runners. Was scratched from Gosford on Tuesday to be saved for this.
Racing returns to Kembla Grange on Tuesday.Credit: Getty
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 1. Kunnese who wasn’t far away on debut at Hawkesbury, and key gear changes have been made. Watch the betting closely on locally trained 4. Monte Out’n’about who debuts in winkers behind an even country trial; while 6. Aqua can improve sharply dropping in class at her second start.
How to play it: Good Lieutenant to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 – 1.25pm: 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1200m)
Another age affair, this time the babies locking horns, and it’s an open and competitive market. Keen on Grunt gelding 7. Rhythm Of Love on debut for the John O’Shea yard. Has been right on the winner’s heels in two recent trials, and he’s bred to thrive in soft ground.
Dangers: Drawn the fence, beautifully bred Kingman colt 4. King Colorado is a threat on debut for another powerhouse city stable. Given three trials, winning the latest comfortably in soft ground. Keep very safe 2. Fightertown who reloads off a month’s break and nice trial win, with blinkers going on. Similar for improving Russian Revolution colt 10. The King who can peak at his third start, with winkers added. Brave Smash colt 6. Master Miyagi who was right behind King Colorado in his last trial; and 16. Snowman first-up off a trial if he gets a run; both go into exotic plays.
How to play it: Rhythm Of Love each way and first four 2,4,7/ 2,4,6,7,10,16/ 2,4,6,7,10,16/ 2,4,6,7,10,16
Race 3 – 2pm: BENCHMARK 68 HCP (2000m)
Change of pace here out over the longer journey, and all aboard progressive five-year-old 1. Funambulist at the value who can improve into his second-up run over 400m further. Bred to stay all day relishing rain-affected ground, and well treated only 3kg over the minimum weight after the jockey’s claim.
Dangers: There’s a sense of timing here fourth-up out to this journey with ultra-honest 2. Roccaforte after going down narrowly in his last two. Tough Canberra four-year-old Loose Love was taken straight to the front in a weaker race at Orange, stayed out in the better ground and bolted home by five lengths. Capable of running out this longer trip, and gets nice weight relief, but this is a far better race. Watch for improving three-year-old 8. Mindspace hitting the line late deep into the prep; while consistent and fit 10. Roseirro heads the rest.
How to play it: Funambulist to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 – 2.35pm: PROVINCIAL 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1300m)
Provincial-based Astern filly 5. Lady Gold can pounce first-up for nearly five months. Fitted for this with a strong synthetic trial over 1175m, and fresh last prep made up good late ground in a similar field when well backed from a double figure quote. The more the track dries out the greater her chance is.
Dangers: Progressive and lightly raced 1. Iron Man is the immediate threat third-up in his first full prep. Has hit the line in two provincial runs this prep, and blinkers back on from a soft draw is a big pointer. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Currency Lad improving into his second-up run; while both 4. Tsarism resuming behind a quiet trial; and 9. Doraskaya second-up; both add further value into trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Lady Gold to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 5 – 3.10pm: MAIDEN HCP (1300m)
Keen on metro three-year-old 3. Emancipist resuming for a strong metro stable. Was consistently in and around the money last prep, and has trialled well enough.
Dangers: Big watch too on progressive filly 7. Silent Raindrops third-up who draws to get a soft run; while her stablemate 4. Little Cointreau resumes from the inside draw, off two quiet trials; and lightly raced 6. Princess Mary is first-up behind an impressive trial win, although may start in Race 7.
How to play it: Emancipist to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 – 3.45pm: CLASS 1 HCP (1300m)
Tough and wide race, with a stack of chances, but no better value than emerging Godolphin three-year-old 5. Chopin third-up. Has hit the line hard from well back in two provincial BM 64 runs, and this looks a very winnable race from a nice trailing draw.
Dangers: Keep safe talented Ocean Park three-year-old 4. Grebeni who resumes for a strong metro yard off a quiet trial run. A drop back in trip and being ridden a little quieter can help 10. Estilete fourth-up; while 9. Resistible has chased home the winner in two provincial runs this prep, and winkers are off again. Include 1. Herb deep into his prep; and at even bigger odds 12. Keikoku third-up with a key jockey change; in wider exotics.
How to play it: Chopin to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 – 4.20pm: MAIDEN PLATE (1500m)
A tactical middle-distance battle for the maidens, but sticking strong with Tavistock three-year-old 7. The Englishman despite flopping first-up off an eight-week break at Newcastle when backed into an odds-on favourite. Gets out over a furlong further here, and only needs to reproduce those runs in metro company form early in the year to be the one to beat.
Dangers: Resuming and lightly raced 6. Princess Mary has also been accepted in Race 5, but likely to start here in a race with a little less depth over more ground off that 1000m trial win. Keep safe 5. Galactic Legend down in weight fourth-up from a better draw; while 11. Vegas On Fire improves into her third start.
How to play it: The Englishman to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 8 – 4.55pm: BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1500m)
The most open race on the program is saved for last. The time is ripe for tough closing provincial mare 10. Prize Draw to strike fifth-up. Has been working home late from the second half of the field all prep against slightly superior rivals, and winkers come off for this.
Dangers: Expecting a bold run up front from hard fit 1. Flower Moon fifth-up with blinkers going on as long as she can get over from the wide barrier. Keep safe progressive city three-year-old Invincible Legend who comes off a dominant provincial maiden win second-up, although the inside ground late in the day here is rarely the place to be. Include lightly raced filly 12. Mistress fourth-up finally getting back on better footing; while honest 2. Ruban Bleu at double figure odds; and home track mare 3. Nautical Miss second-up; both go in wider exotic bets.
How to play it: Prize Draw each way. Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS
R6 5. CHOPIN
R7 7. THE ENGLISHMAN
BEST VALUE
R8 10. PRIZE DRAW
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au
