By Ray Hickson
Selections based on a soft track.
Race 1 – 12:45PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1100 METRES)
11. The King has the form lines on the board to suggest he’s the horse to beat. Ran right up to a solid trial with his eye-catching second to Libertad at Kensington. That form stacks up and he should be hard to hold out if he runs up to it.
Racing returns to Warwick Farm on Monday.Credit: Getty
Dangers: 4. Head Of The Herd has trialled nicely on two occasions and the latest was in a trial 103m shorter than the previous, so that adds merit. Draws to lead and the stable’s two-year-olds are firing. Definite chance. 3. Gustosisimo wasn’t disgraced on debut in a stronger race, finishing midfield behind Shinzo in the Pago Pago. Back in class but also back 100m, if that’s not a negative he’ll be a factor. 10. Tellez attacked the line nicely in his latest trial to win over 900m, a big improvement on his first back in December. One to keep an eye on.
How to play it: The King WIN; Trifecta 11/3,4,10/3,4,10. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 2 – 1:20PM TAB PLATE (1100 METRES)
3. Dipsy Doodle is another with appealing form around her. She was first-up and led when placed behind Kimochi and Kristilli, who ran third and first in the G2 Percy Sykes on Saturday. Fitter and clearly the horse to beat.
Dangers: 12. Rubikins is a well-bred filly out of former top mare Catkins and there was a lot to like about both her trials, even thought the latest was a very quiet one. Should relish the soft ground and is one to keep an eye on. 7. Left Field comes through the same race as Dipsy Doodle and finished a nice fourth on debut. Wide gate may be problematic, but Warwick Farm negates that to a degree. Respect. 9. Missouk trialled behind Dipsy Doodle a month ago then another handy trial at Hawkesbury a couple of weeks later. Wouldn’t be surprised if she shows something.
How to play it: Dipsy Doodle WIN; Trifecta 3/7,9,12/7,9,12. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 – 1:55PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (2400 METRES)
5. Casual Connection is the horse on the way up and he finished with purpose into second over 1800m at Hawkesbury, coming from last. Up in trip and that should suit, has a nice weight drop and chance to measure up.
Dangers: 1. Deniliquin has struck winning form, with success at Hawkesbury and at 2200m here last start. Rises 2.5kg for that latest win and that’s a challenge, but hard to ignore while in this mood. 3. Yarrawonga comes through the same race, where he was on speed throughout and just knocked up late. Fitter for two runs back and no surprise if he’s harder to get past this time. 2. Secret Glamour battled on OK up in class in the Manion Cup, beaten just over two lengths. Form is mixed, but she’s capable of winning if she finds her best.
How to play it: Casual Connection WIN; Trifecta 5/1,2,3/1,2,3; Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 4 – 2:30PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Ausbred Flirt looks the best horse in the race and returned with an excellent effort in the Birthday Card behind Zapateo. Fitter for that, 1400m suits, and she’ll be even harder to beat if the track continues to improve.
Dangers: 3. Kay Teez Command is the big market watch. An ex-Kiwi first-up for Chris Waller with James McDonald riding. Not really exposed in her two trials but won two from three in NZ and any support is significant. 2. Arale has comes back in good form and backed up a handy placing when resuming with an easy all the way Hawkesbury win at this trip. Pushes forward from the gate, and she’ll be around the mark again. 7. Newley Wed was placed on a heavy track when resuming last prep and won second-up at Rosehill. One trial leading in and capable of being in the finish fresh.
How to play it: Ausbred Flirt WIN; Trifecta 1/ 2,3,7/2,3,7. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 5 – 3:05PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
7. Money From The Sky returns as a gelding, and if that switches him on he’s more than capable of winning this fresh. Placed in all three fresh attempts, seems to be trialling well and has a big finish on him when he’s right. Good each-way chance.
Dangers: 12. Wrathful is lightly raced and after a handy effort here on debut won twice at Newcastle in impressive style. Trials have been very quiet so hard to judge, but on his potential he’s a definite chance. 16. Strombus has been thereabouts in three runs back and ducked up along the inside to place here in similar company. Wide gate not such a concern for him, and he can take holding out. 1. O’Mudgee showed a return to form could be near with a handy second-up effort here over 1300m. Down a notch in class and with the claim isn’t badly treated on his best form. Could surprise.
How to play it: Money From The Sky E/W. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 – 3:40PM EXCEEDANCE’S FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
18. Tocomah has always shown promise and went for a spell with a win at Hawkesbury, sweeping home from the back. Worked home well in his trial and would be no surprise if he put himself in the finish at odds.
Dangers: 12. Amortal was a popular winner here two starts back at 1200m then held that form with a close second at Doomben. Gate one and James McDonald again and he’s a definite chance. 3. Nasturtium has a host of gear changes as he resumes since October and has trialled up quite well. He is a good trailer and if he’s back in order then he’s more than capable of winning. 5. Lancaster Bomber had excuses for failing in a Midway at Rosehill when wide throughout so forgive that. Won well prior in Midway company and capable of bouncing back. Big watch on 8. King Of The Castle probably wants further but can see him run a big race fresh at the short trip with a view to second or third-up.
How to play it: Tocomah E/W. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 7 – 4:20PM RANVET HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
3. Lord Ardmore looks well-placed in this company second-up after a nice effort in the Doncaster Prelude, where he drew wide and gave a big start. Ideally drawn up to the mile, and second-up record is strong. Go well.
Dangers: 4. Ascension didn’t fire in the Ajax a month ago where the firm track was blamed for his performance. Form prior was excellent and getting onto a soft track should suit. Entitled to another chance. 13. Silent Agenda had a month between runs and broke through for a win over 1800m at Kensington. Drops 5kg after the claim, trained here and is usually around the mark. 8. Rondino is a handy middle distance performer resuming since the Christmas Cup. He did win off a six-week break at 1850m at Newcastle in the spring, so he’s capable of running into the placings at least.
How to play it: Lord Ardmore E/W. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 8 – 5:00PM PROVEN THOROUGHBREDS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
18. Lavish Empire is an up-and-comer who won by a big space on a heavy track on debut then backed it up with a close second in this class at Randwick on soft ground. Draws well and should run a handy race fresh.
Dangers: 20. High Plateau is unbeaten in two starts, both five horse fields at the provincials but he’s done it easily both times. Has to take the step up, but every reason to think he can from a soft draw. Respect. 13. Rita May didn’t have a lot of luck here two starts back when favourite then atoned with a narrow win over this course on March 29. If she can find a back to follow from the wide gate she can run into the finish again. 3. Excelladus has trialled up quite nicely for a return in a new stable since his Midway win in January. Probably wants 1300m or so to be most effective but does have an excellent fresh record. Keep safe.
How to play it: Lavish Empire E/W. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Best bets: Race 2 (3) Dipsy Doodle; Race 4 (1) Ausbred Flirt
Best value: Race 6 (18) Tocomah
