By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 5 and rail True
Race 1 – 12.20pm: MAIDEN PLATE (1000m)
We start the country meeting with a big field of maiden sprinters on a track that will continue firming up and may even get back near a Good 4. Improving filly 7. Himorher did more than enough closing off well on debut in a better race. Was a dominant trial winner prior, and stays at the trip and weight here for a leading trainer/jockey combination.
Racing heads to Gunnedah on Tuesday.Credit: Jenny Evans
Dangers: Expecting a much better run from Caravaggio filly 8. Samita who did it tough from the draw in slicker company on debut. Watch the betting on debutant American Pharoah filly 12. Villa Treville who has been given five weeks since a narrow trial win; while at a big price 2. Rembroy on debut from a nice draw; and provincial mare 5. Cateechee fifth-up; are both capable of getting into the minor money.
How to play it: Himhorher to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 – 12.55pm: CLASS 2 HCP (1600m)
Decent depth on show in this mile battle. At the value, keen on tough four-year-old 8. Rebel’s Edge who is ready to win deep into the prep, and back in grade. Finished off late in consecutive BM 66 and CL3 runs before settling much closer and was only beaten a long neck in a deeper race at Scone. Winkers come off, and a senior country rider takes over.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for 1. Dimension who rarely runs a bad one, and is also hard fit. Swept home as a hot favourite to win a thinner race two starts back before just fair in tougher grade 15 days ago. Big chance, but is weighted to his best. With two wins from his last three in weaker company, 4. Cherry Blue shapes a shade over the odds here with a 2kg claim; while both 5. Capaldi who came from a mile back to win a weaker race over further at Mudgee; and honest mare 9. Sunchaser, who is also deep into the current campaign and jumping from the inside barrier; can add plenty of value into exotic bets.
How to play it: Rebel’s Edge to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 – 1.30pm: MAIDEN PLATE (1250m)
It doesn’t get any easier in this maiden, with little separating the main chances. If ever one is ready to break through, it’s capable mare 14. Miss Chapeau third-up. Did her best work late when resuming before being ridden upside down from the front last start and didn’t finish. Much better when she settles well off the speed, and winkers replacing blinkers is a significant gear adjustment.
Dangers: The same can be said for another mare, 13. Lago’s Daughter who finished off okay resuming, although that is shaping as a weak form race. Has a 50 per cent strike rate in the placings from 12 starts, and the more the track dries out, the better she is. Right on their heels is improving 3. Jukebox Edition who draws to get a soft run, and has finished close-up in her last two. Gap to the rest headed by 8. Zoucan Toucan racing without winkers for the first time.
How to play it: Miss Chapeau to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 – 2.05pm: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2050m)
A sharp drop in grade from a handy on-speed gate is the recipe for capable mare 4. Avalicious to return to winning ways. Stepped up from consecutive close second placings around this level to a deeper BM 82 at Tamworth where she boxed on okay after leading, and much better served back in this company.
Dangers: Stablemate six-year-old 6. Harwok’n’zoff is over the odds, placed in his last two, and right behind the top selection 23 days ago. Keep safe too 7. Loves Rules who has disappointed this prep, but will find this a little easier jumping from the inside draw. Both 8. Rubiland up in weight after charging home to beat the top selection last start at double-figure odds; and 11. Spoke To Rajiv from a soft draw; can run into the money.
How to play it: Avalicious to win. Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 5 – 2.45pm: MAIDEN HCP (1400m)
The early speed map and tactics will play a big role in this, with some of the better fancies drawn wide. Improving three-year-old 2. Flying Miracle can peak fifth-up here over a bit further. Improved sharply last start, and his form earlier in the prep was good on firm ground. Just needs to tuck in from the tricky barrier, but the more the sun shines, the bigger his claim. Over the odds.
Dangers: Little or no doubt progressive 8. Vis I Do is the most talented runner in the field after motoring home to just miss in a better maiden second-up, but he’ll need the early breaks drawn even wider. Must keep safe 6. Rupert’s Boy resuming for a second prep off a forward trial; while 10. Ravalawa is the best of the rest dropping in weight fourth-up.
How to play it: Flying Miracle each way. Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 6 – 3.20pm: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
Back to the sprint trip, and this stacks up ideally for speedy four-year-old 4. Shikanic who returns for his first run in 19 weeks. Hasn’t publicly trialled, but has a smart fresh record and will come to hand around a suitable smaller track.
Dangers: Big watch on 1. Clifton Springs who draws the fence, and has been campaigning okay against much tougher opposition all prep, and big weight offset by a 4kg claim. Another one resuming, 9. Dolly Jayne returns with a stack of gear changes, including blinkers back on, and has trialled okay. Resuming ex-Victorian filly 3. Cannoli having her first NSW run for leading country trainer Cody Morgan; and 6. Test Of Faith third-up; are both in the each-way mix at bigger odds.
How to play it: Shikanic to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 – 3.55pm: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m)
One of the toughest and widest races on the program, but no greater value than improving five-year-old 14. Oh No Bro who can pounce here fourth-up. Has charged home late from near last in his last two, and while this is a level higher, he carries 4kg less, and can settle a little closer back up in distance.
Dangers: Must include progressive three-year-old 9. Smart Shot also fourth-up after doing his best work late in a deeper BM 58 at Muswellbrook. Tough 1. I’m On Break was strong through the line resuming, and while he normally comes off a peg second-up, is still over the odds after the claim. Include in all exotics, 2. River Rocket who draws the inside with a 2kg claim; 10. Order Of Merit is finally back on firmer ground; and bottom weight last start winner in weaker class 20. Flying Pretty if she sneaks a run.
How to play it: Oh No Bro each way. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 – 4.35pm: CLASS 1 HCP (1250m)
Plenty of chances in the closer as well, but keen on lightly raced provincial filly 7. Akauwheo who resumes for a second prep behind two trials. Came to hand quickly in handy company last spring, and she has more than a touch of quality against this lot.
Dangers: Keep safe 1. Ever Bella who is very fit with blinkers back on, and ran home okay in the tougher Jardel Cup at Tamworth. Watch the betting on resuming ex-Victorian 3. Untouchable Ed at his first run for the new Tamworth stable, but has to overcome a horror draw; while 4. Bean Rocking is clear best of the rest having not finished further back than fourth in his last five.
How to play it: Akauwheo to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS
R6 4. SHIKANIC
R8 7. AKAUWHEO
BEST VALUE
R2 8. REBEL’S EDGE
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au
