By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 5 and rail out 6m
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m)
We open with the maidens on a track that will continue to firm, with sunshine finally replacing earlier rain. Keen on home-track filly 11. Dolce Bella 24 days since running home OK on debut here when hard in the market. Wasn’t easy to make up ground that day, and with that experience jumping from a softer draw and carrying 1kg less, she can break through.
Racing returns to Goulburn on Thursday with an eight-race card.Credit:Fairfax
Dangers: You couldn’t miss the first up closing run of 5. Raider Eightyeight at Canberra a fortnight ago, and naturally a bit more ground suits. Another one trained on the track, 12. Stormy Witness returns off a 10-week freshen up and quiet trial; while at bigger odds 1. Great Week and 9. My Little Viking both add value to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Dolce Bella to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 2 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2140m)
Well out in distance we go, and after three runs back this looks at the mercy of well-bred metro four-year-old 1. I Am The Empire by prize UK staying sire Camelot. Has been in the money all three runs this time, twice in much deeper provincial company, and looks well treated carrying half a kilo less than he did in a BM 64 at Newcastle.
Dangers: Big watch at the value around four-year-old 5. Poker Dice, who looms as the quinella runner fifth-up from a good trailing gate. Worked home OK last time in a race with more depth, and in-form Sydney apprentice takes over in the saddle. Include in wider exotics, 2. Inti deep into his prep; and 7. Bonus Tempus, who will enjoy the significant step up in distance.
How to play it: Quinella: 1 and 5. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m)
Another one primed to go around at a very short price, resuming home-track three-year-old 2. Atmospheric Rock needs only clear air from the 300m to strike fresh. Has been placed in four runs to date against stronger, and swept home here to win his only previous fresh run. Has been fitted with a deliberate quiet trial. Bred to thrive in soft ground being by Your Song.
Dangers: Metro-based and impressive first-up country maiden winner 5. The Seven Seas shapes as the quinella runner; while 3. Russian Assassin third-up; 4. Bully For You who was disappointing second-up when easy in betting; and 7. Discreet Miss fourth-up; can all fight out the minor end of the prize.
How to play it: Atmospheric Rock to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1000m)
The five-furlong dash is right up the alley of Randwick three-year-old 2. Troika second-up. Settled well back from a wide gate and finished only fairly on a wet Beaumont track when resuming, but firmer ground and bigger track are significant plusses here.
Dangers: Got enough time for honest filly 5. Rebel Love, who has been fair in slightly deeper company three runs this prep and gets blinkers added. Keep safe 8. Graceful Force third-up for a leading city stable, with blinkers also going on; while third-up runners 7. Just Wai down in class; and 11. Sun Kiss resuming from the inside draw; are both capable of running into a place.
How to play it: Troika to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
Staying at the short course for a Heat of the Rising Star, and there’s good depth here. Like four-year-old metro mare 2. Squiggles resuming off an 18-week break behind two quiet trials. Was around the money in deeper company last prep, and is already a fresh winner for a stable that likes to get them ready. By Shalaa, so any cut out of the ground is a bonus.
Dangers: Promising home-track filly 8. Namid reloads after missing a run a couple of weeks back. Launched her career with a comfortable all-the-way win in a weak country maiden, and looks fairly treated at the weights after the claim. Respect for 4. Evanora suited over the short trip, and the more it dries out the better she’s served. Include local mare 1. London Gal fifth-up; and 7. Tablet second-up; in trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Squiggles to win. Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 6 MAIDEN HCP (1500m)
Open race with plenty of chances, but leaning heavily towards metro three-year-old 3. Passionate Rebel who is ready to win at his third start. Was well backed when finishing OK on debut in the country before failing to finish off in better provincial company. Less depth here, and wants a surface with some give in it.
Dangers: Keep very safe 2. Fierce Legend second-up after leading for a long way in a handy Canberra maiden. Deep into his prep, and with an edge in race fitness, 1. Sizzler goes up a hefty 5kg in weight, but finds a thinner race after holding his own against city opposition; while stablemates 5. Domingo with blinkers coming off; and 8. Aunt Roberta who drew the fence; are both market watches resuming behind two quiet trials.
How to play it: Passionate Rebel to win. Dangers: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1300m)
Nearly always a stack of chances at this level, and this one is no different. After one fair closing run back in tougher metro grade, seven-year-old 4. Reoffender looms as the one to beat. Can settle back around midfield from a wider draw, and saves his best form for rain-affected ground.
Dangers: Big watch on 6. Reggie’s Folly peaking fourth-up from a softer draw. Similarly, local mare 7. Our Baez looks well placed on the speed map fourth-up and coming through some very handy form lines. Keep safe 9. My Girona sneaking down in the weights third-up; while both 5. Eberlee second-up in suitable ground; and home-tracker 11. Ribeauville resuming off a quiet trial; are also in the each-way mix.
How to play it: Reoffender to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m)
We finish over the mile, and it shapes nicely for underrated South Coast five-year-old 2. Lights On The Hill fourth-up. Liked how he hit the line late from well back in a handy CL2 19 days ago when stepping up to this distance, and right at his peak now.
Dangers: Emerging local filly 8. Arts Object surged home from just off the speed to claim a similar graded race for the girls here 11 days ago, and carries the same weight. Must include progressive and lightly raced 4. Zabellsareringing who finished hard in a CL1 three weeks after sweeping home from well back for an impressive maiden win. Watch the betting on ex-Qld mare 1. Evita La Vie resuming for her first start in the new country NSW stable, with blinkers back on. Included in exotics home tracker 7. Neidr Dawn with blinkers replacing winkers deep into the prep.
How to play it: Lights On The Hill each way. Odds and Evens: Evens
BEST BETS
Race 1: (11) DOLCE BELLA
Race 4: (2) TROIKA
BEST VALUE
Race 5: (2) SQUIGGLES
