By Neil Evans
Track Heavy 10 and rail True
Race 1 – 12.55pm: 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1200m)
We open a showcase meeting with the maidens on a track deep into heavy territory with more rain predicted. With the benefit of a tidy soft track debut against better opposition, improving filly 8. Miss Thatcher can strike at her second start. Settled back last at Kembla before making up a stack of ground, and the extra 200m is a natural plus, with a gear change made.
Racing returns to Wagga Wagga on Thursday.Credit:Jenny Evans
Dangers: Big market watch on Canberra-based Smart Missile debutant 5. Missile Leader who was strong through the line in a recent heavy track trial, and bred to relish these conditions. Gap to the rest headed by another first starter, provincial colt 7. Seventies Hit who found the line well in a trial and drew to get cover; while Victorian 7. The Kid heads the rest at his second start.
How to play it: Miss Thatcher to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 – 1.35pm: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
Well-bred Victorian mare 8. Allegorical has a real edge in heavy ground and can make it two straight at the track. In a change of tactics, she led from barrier to box in similar conditions here 18 days ago, and from a low draw looms as the one to stop dropping back to the shorter trip.
Dangers: Liked the way Albury five-year-old 1. My Bold Boy stuck on hard after leading on the synthetic at Ballarat first-up and is even better suited back on turf here where he led for a long way in a CL2 the start prior. Capable mare 7. Moon Dancer resumes off two quiet trials and is also bred to handle the ground; while both 4. Chillie Cod third-up; and 6. Miss Elsie May fourth-up; go in trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Allegorical to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 – 2.10pm: CLASS 1 HCP (1000m)
Still over the short course, and that shapes beautifully for lightly raced mare 8. Rosie’s Gift who resumes behind a quiet heavy-track trial. Beat a handy maiden field from the front fresh last time, and while drawn to control the tempo up front, is also capable of sitting just off the speed.
Dangers: The betting will tell a story with Wangaratta visitor 1. Xtrayya who won narrowly at home on debut in heavy going, and has since been gelded. Home track filly 7. Supido Beauty bounced to the front on debut at Gundagai on a bog track and hung on for a narrow win. Right at home in these conditions having previously won a wet track trial, but is under the odds against a few of these. Included in exotics local four-year-old 4. Sir Savaluca who is hard fit and draws well; and another debut winner in heavy ground from over the border 5. Tomboulder who drops in weight.
How to play it: Rosie’s Gift to win and trifecta 1,7,8/1,4,5,7,8/1,4,5,7,8. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 – 2.50pm: CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m)
Improving Canberra mare 12. Witness To Love is primed to break through back down on the limit weight and deep into her prep. Has tracked the speed before finishing okay in her last two, and bred to thrive on heavy tracks.
Dangers: Despite being beaten a whisker in tougher provincial grade first-up, prepared to risk improving five-year-old 3. Ribeauville up 2kg over 100m further. Keep safe 1. Medal who is searching for this distance third-up. Well-travelled mare 10. Flying Justice steps up in journey, and has always saved her better runs for rain-affected going, and the stable doesn’t venture to these parts too often; while expect sharp improvement from 6. My Brother Bob fourth-up.
How to play it: Witness To Love each way. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 – 3.25pm: CLASS 3 HCP (1200m)
Wide open and weak race for this class. Like improving Canberra mare 6. Hauteur if she backs up in six days from a disappointing second-up run at home in a much stronger BM 70 Federal. That was her first run on a very heavy surface since switching from Victoria, and she looks well weighted in this on a significant drop in quality. Over the odds.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by second-up BM 74 winner 1. Free State who is building a sound record on rain-affected ground. Keep safe tough six-year-old 4. Smiler Marshall who has been given 26 days since a game effort beaten under three lengths in a much deeper Highway run on a heavy track. Consistent mare 9. Mathrin who has only missed a place twice from nine starts in heavy going; 10. Big Steve who surged home to win a BM 58 third-up; and 11. Decker who resumes off a handy soft track trial; are all capable of running into the minor end of the money.
How to play it: Hautier each way. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 – 4.05pm: BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m)
Back out to the mile and there are a stack of chances in this. Now tough and lightly raced provincial four-year-old 12. Steve Steve Steve has won a second race at this track across only five starts, he can take the next step. Went to the front on a Heavy 10 rating here 18 days ago and boxed on enormous through the arguably inferior ground. Drops 2kg for this tougher test, and likely to be ridden a little quieter from the draw. Thrives in the heavy and capable of winning a midweek metropolitan race.
Dangers: Lightly raced five-year-old 6. Lawyer’s Delight has more than enough ability and comes back from deeper Highway grade, but the inside draw does him no favours on the map, and an inferior rider takes over. Provincial five-year-old 7. Victory At Omaha won two straight up to CL3 level before being swamped in a deeper race at Kembla, and all his best form is in rain-affected going. Keep safe too underrated mare 9. Sky Diamonds who will relish the longer trip third-up; while both 2. Bell’s Innocent and 13. Choccy Gaf; go in wider exotic bets.
How to play it: Steve Steve Steve each way. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 – 4.40pm: OPEN HCP (1200m)
Tough Victorian eight-year-old 2. Yeldarb is ready to win again carrying his lightest weight in a long time. Hit the line strong in two heavy track runs at Bendigo either side of a metropolitan flop, and the little drop in distance is a plus. Has a 30 per cent winning strike rate on heavy ground from 19 starts, and was scratched from Sandown on Wednesday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Typically, in these conditions, they’re queuing up. Promising Victorian five-year-old 8. Magnetic draws to either lead or sit right behind and will give a big sight rising in distance third-up. Was only swamped in the last few strides by a smart one here 18 days ago after bolting in the previous run in similar grade, and is bred to thrive on heavy ground. Must include 9. Seventh Seal who has also built an impressive record from 25 starts on all ground, and draws to get a cosy trail right behind the speed. Both 1. Bombdiggity down in class third-up; and talented Canberra mare 3. Calescent second-up with a smart wet track record; are knock-out chances.
How to play it: Yeldarb each way and box trifecta 1,2,3,8,9. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 – 5.15pm: 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1200m)
The older maidens bring us home in another very testing and open sprint. Keen on another Matt Dale-trained visitor from Canberra, four-year-old mare 13. Sheila who can make a big statement on debut. By Cox Plate winner Adelaide, she Impressed with a recent heavy track trial win, and a senior country jockey has been booked.
Dangers: Expect sharp second-up improvement from 4. Lockup The Kittens; while Victorian 5. Rupp peaks at his third start. Big watch on improving mare 8. Chaotic Beauty who draws wide, but that may be the place to be late in the day, and she flashed home from last at big odds first-up from a lengthy break. Lightly raced metro four-year-old 6. Spot On Ready third-up; and improving mare 10. Grand Sassy fourth-up; head the rest.
How to play it: Sheila to win. Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS
R2 8. ALLEGORICAL
R8 13. SHEILA
