By Neil Evans
Selections based on a soft track
Race 1 CLASS 3 HCP (1450m)
We start the cup meeting with a good contest on a track that should continue to improve back into soft range. Was very impressed with the second-up win of progressive mare 3. Empress Zou at Coffs when sustaining a strong finishing burst from well back in BM 66 grade. A little more depth here, but the small distance rise and soft rating are both right up her alley, and the top country jockey takes over.
Dangers: Improving 2. Rhythm Is A Dancer put three wins together up to country BM 58 grade before scratched at the barrier last time. Kept up to the mark with an easy trial and in well at the weights after the jockey’s claim. Keep safe 5. What A Peach third up and one of three accepted Scott Singleton-trained runners. 4. Remorseless heads the rest fourth up from the inside draw.
How to play it: Empress Zou to win; Odds and Evens: Split
Muswellbrook has an excellent eight-race card for cup day.Credit:Fairfax
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1280m)
The wrap on debutant Mikki Isle-sired three-year-old 2. Florino is big enough to see him make an instant statement here. Was strong through the line in a recent provincial heavy track trial, and the Messara/Bullock combination is on show again. Scratched from Newcastle on Thursday to be saved for this.
Dangers: Improving 4. Leica Storm can threaten second up over more ground and carting 1kg less. 7. Jody Girl from a soft trailing draw and 8. Bit Of A Step with winkers added can both put value into exotic plays.
How to play it: Florino to win; Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 3 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m)
Plenty of chances here and early positions will be critical. Like progressive three-year-old 3. Exonumia to go back-to-back after tracking the speed and finishing best to claim his maiden second up at Scone. Stays at the journey, and looms as the superior wet tracker in the race.
Dangers: Right on the top selection’s heels is 4. Devil’s Inn who hit the line hard second up after being ridden quieter, and even better suited getting to the bigger circuit. 6. Thorpe resumes as a gelding off a near 12-month spell for the Annabel Neasham stable. Won on debut as a two-year-old. Honest 1. River Rocket with a 3kg claimer offsetting the big weight and, at bigger odds, 8. Stormy Pluck are both capable of fighting for minor money.
How to play it: Exonumia to win and box exacta 3,4,6; Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m)
3. Takara Star is all set to make it two straight at the track fourth up in her first full prep despite drawing the outside gate. Worked over to sit just off the leader here three weeks ago before sailing home with plenty in hand. Had previously come through a strong provincial Midway formline, and this is far from deep.
Dangers: 1. Midori Fuji resumes off two quiet trials and has plenty of ability on his day. 6. Smart Shot back on preferred soft ground and 8. Successful from a soft draw head the rest.
How to play it: Takara Star to win; Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 5 WAYNE HARRIS OPEN HCP (1280m)
8. Ceasefire was stiff not to win first up when hitting the line late under 61kg in a country BM 68, and dropping right down to the 55kg limit here for this tougher test a month between runs over a touch more ground is ideal.
Dangers: 4. Damaged hit the line from well back second up in metro BM 72 company and should relish this bigger and longer straight. 13. Border Control has been in and around the money for most of this prep and finished well in a Midway BM 72 for older gallopers 20 days ago. 12. Abuela off a first-up CL1 win and 3. Confessed resuming after two trials can sneak into the minor money.
How to play it: Ceasefire to win; Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 6 SKELLATAR SPRINT (1000m)
Now for the feature sprint which is generally a strong form race. Among a few chances, smart five-year-old 3. Ice In Vancouver can hit the ground running first up since early spring. Was competitive up to BM 90 metro company last prep and proved he’s ready to roar again bolting in a recent Tamworth trial in good time. Has a 45 per cent win rate from just 14 starts, and 60 per cent success on soft ground.
Dangers: Speedy mare 5. Tucson Valley fourth up and back from BM 72 city company is a clear threat. 2. Burning Crown fresh with gear changes, 4. Miss Jay Fox also first up off two eye-catching trials, and 6. Fumiko third up and also back from metro level are exotic plays.
How to play it: Ice In Vancouver to win; Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 7 MUSWELLBROOK GOLD CUP (1500m)
2. Sibaaq is third up and dropping back from group 2 company where he found the line well over the same trip. Was placed in three straight runs last spring up to 1800m, including the feature Big Dance and Five Diamonds, and blinkers going on is a further boost. Draws to get a nice trail around midfield and handles all conditions.
Dangers: Big watch on high class six-year-old 4. Hosier resuming from the inside draw off two trials. Won the Coffs Cup and a metro BM 88 in succession last prep and has a smart fresh record. Last start mid-week BM 78 winner 10. Journalism reads over the odds, dropping down to the 54kg limit. 1. Gem Song second up off a quiet trial is well capable of running into the money.
How to play it: Sibaaq each way; Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m)
4. Restrictions is crucially back a furlong in trip third up. Came off a year-long break after departing Hong Kong to lead all the way at Wyong before being found wanting over 1200m. Has the early speed to get across from the gate and will give a tremendous sight in what is a thin race.
Dangers: Big watch on talented Outreach provincial four-year-old 1. Uzziah resuming off two trials. 3. Clifton Springs irst up with gear changes and 7. Small Town third up are best of the rest.
How to play it: Restrictions to win; Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS: Race (1) 3. EMPRESS ZOU; Race 4 (3) TAKARA STAR
BEST VALUE: Rae 7 (2) SIBAAQ
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au
