By Nick Berney
Race 1 – 1:15PM GEOFF STEINMETZ COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)
1. Elite Quality was $2.8-$2.4 late in the trade last start at Port Macquarie and was given no peace when leading at a fast pace. That race rated highly relative to the day and the decisive margins throughout confirmed the quality. The gelding will need luck from the draw but step back in distance is ideal, the blinkers go back on and expect him to run boldly. Each-way.
Dangers: 12. Venatic had every chance first-up at Taree but raced well. She will be fitter for that effort, and the anticipated genuine tempo will suit. The filly profiles well for this race, and is a definite chance. Debutante 7. Dreamers Maid won a recent trial at Coffs Harbour and is a market watch. 4. Pixie Hallow was solid first-up and add 5. Bella Tarouga to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Elite Quality E/W. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
The Kempsey Cup is the feature race on an eight-race card.Credit:Fairfax
Race 2 – 1:50PM SEA BREEZE HOTEL – SOUTH WEST ROCKS SHOWCASE MAIDEN HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
6. Willinga Karisma wasn’t suited last start after getting too far back in a moderate tempo and was blocked at critical stages in the final straight. She hit the line hard into third place, running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting in 11.53, and that race rated highly relative to the day. The three-year-old filly is ready to peak third up, receives a significant barrier change and will be hard to beat with even luck.
Dangers: 11. Star Of Yamba will get back but is a consistent type, and if he gets luck, expect him to savage the line. 3. Sukhbir resumes and has trialled well enough. He is a key late-market watch. Add 12. Tosen Army to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Willinga Karisma WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 – 2:25PM CRYSTALITE SHOWCASE MAIDEN PLATE (1450 METRES)
5. The Winter Sun was solid first-up 15 days ago at Hawkesbury in a high-rating race relative to the day. The gelding profiles well for this, where he will be fitter for that effort, is suited up in distance, and has produced his peak figures second up. He is coming out of time/sectional merit races throughout his career and is ready to break through for his maiden win.
Dangers: 7. Foxy Baroness is on an upwards ratings spiral this prep and tried hard into third last start at Gosford. He brings a fitness edge, is proven on the rain-affected ground and receives a senior rider. 12. Crashnbash and 10. Ad Astra Magic are both coming out of time races and must go in all exotics.
How to play it: The Winter Sun WIN. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 4 – 3:05PM KEMPSEY MACLEAY RSL BENCHMARK 74 HANDICAP (1900 METRES)
5. Proost is in career-best form and is on an upwards ratings spiral this prep. The mare has won her last two in style and put her rivals away in domain fashion four days ago at Ballina. She will need to improve again to make the grade, but her profile suggests she can step again.
Dangers: 2. Torowoto started $8 in the Coonamble Cup, which was run at Dubbo, and he had excuses. Prior to that start, he won dominantly, and if he could repeat that figure, he’ll be in the finish. 1. Continuation has struggled this prep but drops in grade here and is a key market watch. Add 3. Vanbari to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Proost WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 – 3:40PM O’DONNELL & HANLON COUNTRY BOOSTED BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1450 METRES)
Forgive 6. Eurellydidit’s last start where he had excuses and was sharply back in distance. The gelding has raced in stronger grade for most of his prep whilst having factors against him. He has drawn to get all the favours with a significant barrier change, is proven on the rain-affected ground and can rate to win. Over the odds. Each-way.
Dangers: 10. Polished got too far back last start at Lismore and ran on well in a fast time race. He brings a competitive last-start figure and expect him to hit the line hard. 2. Four Egos is a consistent type, rock-hard fit and a last-start winner. 5. Pendleton drops in grade and is suited up in distance.
How to play it: Eurellydidit E/W. Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 6 – 4:20PM JACK HOWARD MEMORIAL SHOWCASE BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
3. Pacheco was honest last start running second at Muswellbrook in a solid time race. The gelding has been consistent all prep and brings a fitness edge to this event. Expect him to roll forward from the soft draw, Aaron Bullock sticks, and he has a strong starting price profile.
Dangers: 2. Monterey Zar is first-up off a 496-day break and has trialled well enough. He is a key late-market watch, but undoubtedly has the ability to win. 12. Sippin Season was perfectly ridden last start at Coffs Harbour to win, but a repeat of that effort can put him in the finish. 6. Luz Long will be fitter, and 4. The Fossil can sprint well fresh.
How to play it: Pacheco WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 7 – 4:55PM AKUBRA KEMPSEY CUP (1450 METRES)
1. Hit The Target chased a fast tempo last start at Newcastle and tired late after working hard early. Prior to that start, he was suited but won well and did it easily. The slow/even tempo anticipated suits the eight-year-old, where he produces his career peak figures, and he maps to control the pace. Expect him to be hard to catch from barrier 1.
Dangers: 5. Valley’s Sister ran well last start at Taree and is a consistent performer in this grade. 9. Casirina drops significantly back in distance, which is some query, but he has multiple winning figures for this event. 3. Mikado has been racing well at the metropolitan level, adding 4. Standing Bear to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Hit The Target WIN. Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 8 – 5:30PM STEVE KEIR MEMORIAL – BENCHMARK 66 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
3. Buck Pharoah resumed at Port Macquarie 12 days ago and defied a significant betting drift from $2.8-$4.5 late in the trade. He hit the line hard to score, running one of the fastest final 200m sectionals of the meeting in 12.48. The four-year-old will be fitter from that effort, brings strong form lines to this event and is an ultra-consistent type. Some query back in distance, but the anticipated fast tempo can offset that.
Dangers: 2. Whatyoulookingat resumes and won a recent trial dominantly at Port Macquarie. She is a 1000m specialist and will roll forward and give a sight from the inside draw. 10. Tobasco started $3.20 in a similar grade race last start and raced ok. Add 7. Markwell Dreamer and 6. Phule to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Buck Pharoah WIN. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Best Bet: Race 8 (3) Buck Pharoah
Next Best: Race 2 (6) Willinga Karisma
Best Value: Race 5 (6) Eurellydidit
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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