By Neil Evans
Selections based on a good track.
Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m)
We start the Showcase Cup day meeting over the short course, and lightly raced four-year-old 1. Panuara Boy is the one to beat third up in his first full prep. Has sat on speed and only gone down narrowly in two runs back and strikes peak fitness now. Has the early tactical speed to offset a wider draw, and the jockey who steered him home on debut last July gets back aboard.
Dangers: Resuming colt 6. Sir Havachat is drawn even further out but also boasts early speed and has trialled well. 2. The Sherpa is over the odds first up with gear changes and two trials. Include 3. Managua and 4. Rayock in wider exotics.
How to play it: Panuara Boy to win; Odds and Evens: Split
The Ballina Cup is the feature of the eight-race Showcase meeting.Credit:Fairfax
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m)
Same distance for the maidens, and improving three-year-old 6. Supidoman can go one better after being run down here resuming on Boxing Day. Had trialled well leading in, but that was his first start for nearly six months so will come on plenty from that.
Dangers: Despite a wide draw, promising 4. Bean Groovy is the logical threat after getting home late on debut in metropolitan company over the border when found trouble. Will likely settle well back again but watch for him thundering home. Speedy four-year-old 3. Toy Boy Run is also right in the hunt having just been edged out when resuming at Coffs over a shorter trip.
How to play it: Supidoman to win and box exacta 3,4,6; Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1590m)
Still with the maidens, but out over a middle distance. Keen at the value here aboard honest five-year-old 8. Mahomes chasing a breakthrough win in his 33rd start. Worked home well in two consecutive runs around this district before doing too much work from the wide gate only six days ago. The quick back-up is a good stable sign, and he draws to get a much softer run over a bit more ground.
Dangers: Progressive Qld four-year-old 5. Jimmy Giggle is a stand-out threat second up from an ideal trailing draw. 7. King Tereus resuming from the inside draw and 11. Elmita with a 2kg claim head the rest.
How to play it: Mahomes each way and quinella 5 and 8; Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1900m)
Wide open battle here over further with many chances. Tough mare 8. Beef Week Princess is ready to pounce again deep into the prep. Placed twice in her last two and loved the way she attacked the line under a big weight at last time. This is stronger but dropping 3.5kg from a softer draw over further. Only needs clear air from the 400m to produce a superior closing burst.
Dangers: Tough 2. Dorset Coast circled early last time from midfield before surging away to win a weaker race. He’s hard fit having campaigned since early spring, and carries weight well. Similarly, 3. Kingstar Bullet has been racing against stronger and a reliable weight carrier. Gets back out to a more suitable trip having beaten all bar the winner in two of her last three and is comfortably over the odds. Junior claiming rider is the query. Gold Coast-based 4. Jetfoil has been finding the line in shorter trips and makes his debut at the track. Included in trifectas and first fours 5. Savaheat back in trip with winkers replacing blinkers; front-running mare 6. Rahaan; and 7. Vantastic who draws the fence fifth up.
How to play it: Beef Week Princess to win; Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1300m)
Progressive four-year-old 1. Al Ash Lad only needs his share of room from the turn to break through here second up. Stuck on well chasing home at Ipswich three weeks ago and will again roll forward into the leading group in what looks a weaker race.
Dangers: 2. Nano Star is a clear threat having hit the line well in a deeper metro field 16 days ago. 8. Southern Highlands gets a soft run at his fourth start. 13. Revontulet can improve into her second start over 100m further.
How to play it: Al Ash Lad to win; Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1000m)
Good quality and depth in this sprint, with several strong chances. Progressive mare 11. Palawa Kani has taken big strides winning her last two up to CL3 level, both times coming from midfield. This is tougher, but she can again settle back off a good speed and produce a sustained finish. Over the odds.
Dangers: Toowoomba eight-year-old 1. Let’s Party Marty has been through four stables in two states but maintains a smart fresh record. Faces a big task, though, drawn off the track with a big weight and rookie claiming jockey. Watch for a big first-up run from 2. Parkesville who comes to hand quickly and was dominant in a recent trial. Include 4. The Billionaire third up; 8. Star Magnum resuming off an open class trial win; and 9. Light Of Boom who draws to get a soft run around midfield; in trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Palawa Kani each way; Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BALLINA CUP (1590m)
Plenty of chances in the feature Cup over a middle distance. Gold Coast five-year-old 6. Mix hasn’t missed a place in his last four, including a spectacular last-to-first performance at Eagle Farm nine days ago. Looks well treated back down to 58.5kg here, just may need to get rolling earlier coming back to a smaller and tighter track.
Dangers: Smart five-year-old 5. Spangler is a big threat fourth up. Charged home to win at Canterbury two starts back before against finishing hard in metro BM 78 company. The down side is a far inferior rider gets on from a a very tricky draw. Capable 4. Sagacious is one of a few runners over the odds having finished best to claim a BM 85 third up. Christmas Cup winner at this track 8. The Tyler is hard fit and another strong each way hope from a soft trailing draw. Home track mare 9. Lasting Kiss heads the rest.
How to play it: Mix each way; Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1400m)
Can’t go past talented and rising Coffs three-year-old 6. Olakau’atu off a dominant first-up CL1 win at home. Has enough early speed to take advantage of a low draw, and as long as he gets room from the 350m, boasts superior closing acceleration.
Dangers: Home track mare 8. Chickerartie was dominant from barrier to box here fourth up in a weaker race and drops 1.5kg for this deeper test. Honest 4. Regal Edition is next best.
How to play it: Olakau’atu to win; Odds and Evens: Evens
BEST BETS: Race 1 (1) PANUARA BOY; Race 5 (1) AL ASH LAD
BEST VALUE: Race 6 (11) PALAWA KANI
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au
