On Saturday, the 2024-25 European club season comes to an end with the traditional closer, the UEFA Champions League final. Held in Munich this year, the head-to-head is a tantalizing one that few expected: the “born again” Paris Saint-Germain, led by manager Luis Enrique and a young, hungry squad, taking on wily veterans Inter Milan, who have a unique formation, plenty of savvy stars and an underrated tactician in Simone Inzaghi.
Both teams have taken down giants to reach the showpiece finale — PSG eliminated Liverpool and Arsenal in the knockout rounds, while Inter Milan fended off fancied Barcelona and Bayern Munich to punch their ticket — and now face a winner-take-all showdown.
So who will win, and what storylines are bubbling under the surface? ESPN writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Julien Laurens, Tom Hamilton and Bill Connelly walk you through what to watch for and give their picks for who will claim the prize Saturday night.
A final of youth vs. experience
The contrast is evident. Inter’s likely starting XI have an average age of 30 years and 4 months; Paris Saint-Germain’s is 24 and 7 months. Inter have eight players who featured the last time they were in the Champions League final, two years ago; Marquinhos is the only PSG starter to have played in a Champions League final at any time in his career.
That’s the most obvious difference between Saturday’s finalists, and what impact it will have will depend heavily on how the game is played.
A higher tempo evidently favors the fresh legs of PSG, whereas a slower, nervy grind ought to give Inter the edge, at least on paper. But both sides are far more multifaceted than they appear. Both can play a possession game, poking and prodding until the right opening appears — witness Ousmane Dembélé‘s opener against Arsenal, a result of 26 passes — but both can be direct and hit you going north-south. PSG have the speed of Dembele, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola; Inter have the chemistry of Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martínez, a rare front tandem in the modern game.
It’s not as simple, therefore, to liken it to a basketball game and suggest Inter want fewer possessions and PSG want more, because both coaches can and do mix things up. Rather, perhaps precisely because these teams are managed by two of the best around, we might see some myths get buried Monday night. Inter might show that the parameters of fitness and athleticism have changed and that top pros can go strong into their early 30s. PSG might show that experience is overrated relative to game intelligence and tactical instruction.
So don’t just boil this down to experience vs. athleticism. There’s much more to it. — Marcotti
Battle of the superstar, MVP goalkeepers
The Champions League is usually all about the superstar forwards and their ability to win games out of nothing, from Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to Mohamed Salah and Vinícius Júnior, but this time around, it could be decided by the goalkeepers.
Dan Thomas is joined by Craig Burley, Shaka Hislop and others to bring you the latest highlights and debate the biggest storylines. Stream on ESPN+ (U.S. only).
PSG have flooded teams with pure quantity: For the entire competition, they’re fifth out of 36 Champions League teams in shots per possession and third in shots allowed per possession. They’ve attempted 45 shots worth at least 0.2 xG and allowed 20, a plus-25 margin that ranks first. They just do more than their opponents: They’re first in ball recoveries (48.6) and take-ons per match (27.7), second in direct attacks (sequences starting in the defending half and producing a shot within 20 seconds) and third in buildup attacks (sequences that contain 10 or more passes and produce either a shot or a touch in the box).
In short, they play like the young and endlessly aggressive team they are.
Inter, meanwhile, fill the role of the collective sturdy veteran. They win with quality over quantity: They attempt only 13.6 take-ons per match (35th), but they win 49.7% of them (third). They force 8.8 high turnovers per game (27th) but score 0.6 goals per game from them (ninth). They’re 15th in shots per possession but eighth in xG per shot, and they’re 22nd in shots allowed per possession but first in xG allowed per shot. Opponents have attempted more shots than them, but looking specifically at shots worth 0.2 xG or more, they attempt 2.3 (12th) and allow only 1.3 (third).
Inter force you to expend energy attempting to beat them with individual brilliance, and if you do so, they are almost always ready with a counterstrike. Just ask Bayern and Barcelona. PSG will almost certainly control large portions of the pitch and this match, but Inter are more likely to score from set pieces, more likely to win the ball in the air and almost certain to create random, high-quality opportunities that give them a chance at Champions League glory. — Bill Connelly
The omen of first-time winners in Munich
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Dumfries: Champions League is the moment for Inter
Inter defender Denzel Dumfries and goalkeeper Yann Sommer look ahead to the Champions League final against PSG.
Munich has staged four previous European Cup/Champions League finals — three at the Olympiastadion, one at the Allianz Arena — and the German city has proved to be lucky for those teams aiming to be crowned European champions for the first time. That might be great news for PSG.
Nottingham Forest won the first of their two European Cups with a 1-0 victory against Swedish champions Malmo in 1979, while Marseille became the first (and so far only) French club to win Europe’s biggest prize by defeating AC Milan 1-0 in the Olympiastadion in 1993. Four years later, Borussia Dortmund made the short trip to Munich to take on reigning Champions League kings Juventus in their first-ever final, but despite the odds favoring Marcello Lippi’s formidable team, Dortmund cruised to a 3-1 win.
Bayern Munich faced Chelsea on home ground in the 2012 final, but despite facing the English side in their own stadium, Bayern could not break the sequence of first-time winners in Bavaria as Chelsea sealed the first of their two Champions League titles with a penalty shootout victory at the Allianz.
So will three-time European champions Inter be able to deny PSG a first Champions League title in Munich this weekend, or will Luis Enrique’s team keep the sequence going?
One more bit of good news for PSG: Marseille clinched a French victory in Munich in 1993 by defeating a team from Milan in their second attempt at winning the competition. PSG face another team from Milan in Munich, one that’s also aiming to win the Champions League on the second attempt. — Ogden
Two incredible full backs, but only one can win
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Can PSG be inspired by the Munich UCL final good luck charm?
Julien Laurens and Mark Ogden discuss what PSG will need to do to beat Inter Milan in the Champions League final.
Back in the summer of 2021, Achraf Hakimi and Denzel Dumfries passed like ships. Hakimi had enjoyed an incredibly successful 2020-21 season at Inter Milan and helped Antonio Conte’s side to the Scudetto. At the end of that term, he departed for PSG.
Hakimi’s replacement? Dumfries, signed for €15 million, a fraction of the eventual €71 million Inter Milan collected for Hakimi.
But now they’re back on the same pitch, and it’s no exaggeration to say the pair have been outstanding in this year’s tournament.
Dumfries was integral to Inter’s remarkable win over Barcelona in the semifinals, scoring twice in the first leg (including on that scissor kick), and then managing to tee up Lautaro Martinez for their opener in the return fixture in Milan. Hakimi has kept a close eye on Dumfries, saying last week: “He’s a great player. One thing I like about him is that he’s very strong in the air, while I’m terrible.” Then came the little dig, however, with Hakimi saying it’s “easier” to play wing back in a 3-5-2 than to handle a back four role.
Hakimi has been consistently regarded as the best right back in world football, and he has enjoyed another superb season for PSG, even scoring the winner against Arsenal in their semifinal.
The two had very different paths to the top: Dumfries played amateur football to age 18 before progressing to PSV and then Inter Milan, while Hakimi came through the Real Madrid academy. But if you look at the stats comparison between the two this season, they are close on many metrics, such as ground duels won and tackles per 90 minutes. Then comes the nuance: Hakimi has made 3.67 interceptions per 90, compared with Dumfries’ 1.27, and Dumfries has been far more dominant in the air (winning 71% of aerial duels to Hakimi’s 47%).
They are very different types of players, but one thing binds them: their desire to get into attack and influence the match. Which one will have the defining moment Saturday? — Hamilton
It’s prediction time! Who will win, and by what scoreline?
Inter Milan 2, PSG 1: As soon as Inter and PSG confirmed their spots in the final, I predicted a 2-1 win for Inter, and I am sticking with that. I believe PSG are the better team and more exciting to watch, but Inter are a tough, uncompromising side with a cutting edge up front, so I am backing their resolve over PSG’s flair to seal the win. — Ogden
Inter Milan 2, PSG 0: They knocked out the champions of Germany and Spain, so why not make it a trifecta with the champions of France, too? The bookies fancy PSG, and you can see why. But if the game comes down to set pieces (where Inter have an edge) and intangibles (experience, sure, but also the ability to get back up after being punched in the face), Inter can shade this. — Marcotti
Inter Milan 1-0 PSG: Ultimately, their experience will prevail and they will score on a set piece to clinch their second Champions League crown, leaving PSG waiting a little longer. — Laurens
Inter Milan 3, PSG 2: This is going to be tight, but Inter will edge it. They have the most underrated manager (Simone Inzaghi) in world football, and their ability to arm-wrestle the tightest matches into victory will come through again. — Hamilton
PSG 1, Inter Milan 0: We’ll just play the odds here. Inter will inevitably create a couple of good chances, but PSG will create more of them. — Connelly
