Max Verstappen has won the world championship with four rounds to spare, a title victory so emphatic you’d be forgiven for wondering what could possibly be motivating the also-rans to strive for those final few percentage points of performance from here until Abu Dhabi in November.
Except there’s plenty still to fight for this season.
For Ferrari and Charles Leclerc it’s pride after such a strong start to the season came to nothing.
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For Mercedes it’s hope after tumbling from an eight-year streak of constructors championships to a so-far winless campaign.
There’s reputation at stake further down the field too, and there are drivers still fighting for their careers.
The main title fight might be over, but there’s always something on the line in Formula 1.
THE CONSTRUCTORS CHAMPIONSHIP — BUT REALISTICALLY SECOND PLACE
Ferrari is yet to concede defeat to Red Bull Racing in the constructors championship, but it’s almost certain to see its unlikely title challenge come to an end this weekend.
RBR leads the Scuderia by 165 points with 191 points remaining. At the end of the United States Grand Prix weekend a maximum of 147 points will remain.
Ferrari therefore needs to outscore Red Bull Racing by 19 points — a one-two with both Verstappen and Perez off the podium — to take the battle to Mexico the following weekend, where it would then need both rival cars to DNF all the way to the end of the year to have a shot in Abu Dhabi.
It is, in other words, a very tall order.
Ferrari has undoubtedly made its peace with defeat by now — indeed team principal Mattia Binotto said earlier this year that he wasn’t even aiming to win the title anyway — but what it absolutely cannot do is slip behind Mercedes and finish third.
The Italian team leads the German marque by a healthy but not boastful 67 points courtesy of the Silver Arrows falling off the radar this side of the mid-season break, having been only 30 points ahead after Hungary.
Verstappen wins it all in Japan! | 02:30
Mercedes has also adopted something of a tail-down position since then too. The supposedly friendly Singapore circuit delivered it its worst result of the entire season, among some truly demoralising single-lap performances.
But in race trim and particularly in unusual circumstances the W13 is capable of keeping the Ferrari cars within reach. A little bit of luck could see the points gap shrink a little too quickly for Maranello’s comfort.
This weekend’s race has been earmarked by George Russell as one at which his car could prove competitive thanks pretty much exclusively to the esses that join the first and second sectors and also the slower third split, notwithstanding that the rest of the track is mostly straights.
Playing against it, however, is that this circuit is notoriously bumpy — so much so that it’s he to have its surface treated twice in the last couple of years.
The work done to the track ahead of 2022 was approved by MotoGP’s field of riders, albeit they admitted that it wasn’t perfect. It doesn’t take bumps to large to upset the W13, so the team’s weekend will hinge almost complete on this.
Ferrari, however, may encounter trouble of a different kind. It’s forecast to be in the low 30°C range all weekend, and this track is already a tyre killed. Combined with Ferrari’s generally higher degradation, the red team might find itself strategically hamstrung for this race.
Ferrari will of course be aiming to end the season with some wins, but it can’t take its eyes off Mercedes in the rear-view mirror.
SECOND IN THE DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Could Charles Leclerc, who sprinted to a 34-point championship lead after just three rounds, really not finish so much as second in the standings by the end of the season?
At the moment he’s third on the table and one point behind Sergio Perez.
His last-lap escape over the last chicane at Suzuka, which ultimately cost him second place to the Mexican after penalties and handed Verstappen the title, is what put him there.
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It’s an interesting comparison between these two drivers, because while Leclerc has clearly demonstrated more speed over the season, taking nine poles to Perez’s one, Perez has been on par in race configuration.
Both drivers have missed three chequered flags, but all three of Perez’s stoppages have been for reasons outside his control, whereas one of Leclerc’s DNFs was his self-inflicted crash in France.
Leclerc has three wins to Perez’s one, but that could so very easily have been two had the timing of the safety car in Saudi Arabia not cost him so dearly after leading the race from pole.
Neither driver has finished lower than sixth, though of their six non-podium finishes, Perez is on average half a place further up.
Of course missing from the headline stats are the penalties Leclerc’s had to take for his engine failures and the strategy mistakes that long ago cruelled his chances of taking on the almost flawlessly engineered Verstappen campaign, but saying that takes nothing away from Perez, who’s made the most of the opportunities presented to him.
With the battle for second reset to effectively zero points, Perez taking second place with what is now clearly the faster car would be a logical conclusion, but it would be a gut-punch for Leclerc given his early-season lead and an indictment on his and Ferrari’s inability to seize the opportunities that come their way.
And their will be opportunities in these final four races they can make the most of to grind out second place. Not doing so would inescapably have to be considered a failure.
THE PRICKLY BATTLE FOR FOURTH
The battle for the somewhat disparagingly titled ‘best of the rest’ honours has become surprisingly personal in recent years.
McLaren and Alpine are both nominally grandee teams long fallen from grace. The former is a Formula 1 original, while the latter is the Renault-backed — and therefore French government-backed — manufacturer behemoth. Neither should be so enmeshed in the midfield, and both are desperate to prove they can recapture their past glories.
Against this backdrop was McLaren snatching Daniel Ricciardo from Renault in 2020 with a year still to run on his contract, and this year it managed to pinch rising star Oscar Piastri from Alpine’s driver academy for 2023, costing the French team two star signings.
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But Alpine is just about getting its own back on track as the far more consistent performer, with only technical problems marring its campaign, most notably in Singapore, where both Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon retired with power unit problems.
For one race it reversed these teams’ positions on the table, with McLaren taking a slender lead for fourth, but regular programming was resumed in Japan, with Alpine restoring a 13-point lead.
Nonetheless, the momentary reversal of fortunes was opportunity enough for Lando Norris to attempt to reopen old wounds.
“They are so much quicker than us, I have no clue how we are still fighting them in the championship,” he said in Japan.
“They are in another league to us at the minute. I‘m happy we’ve been able to fight them so far into the season; it shows we’ve done a very good job in other areas — in reliability, in maximising our performances, in taking opportunities — and [are] not making mistakes.
“They must have done a lot worse than us in all of those areas to only just be ahead of us in the championship with the car they have.
“It‘s not a big fight at the minute because they are so much quicker, but we’ll keep trying and limit the points loss to them.“
A backhanded compliment for the ages.
Norris has been taking this tack all year, and this time Alpine finally bit back.
“Lando loves to keep quoting that, doesn‘t he?” Alpine sporting director Alan Permane said, per Autosport. “But we only need to just be ahead.
“I‘m not quite sure why he keeps on. I guess we’ve got him rattled.
“We‘re much more focused on Mercedes and trying to beat Mercedes. We’re trying to get ourselves onto that sort of level.”
It was a decent response and not entirely inaccurate. Alpine has troubled Mercedes several times this season, including in Japan, where Ocon managed to keep Hamilton at bay for the entirety of the shortened wet-weather race.
At certain circuits the Alpine is at the very tail end of the frontrunning group. While failing to secure fourth might be frustrating, the pace the team’s exhibiting this year will be seriously heartening in exchange.
Really McLaren needs to do its talking on the track in 2023.
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It’s not only McLaren and Alpine at it further down the grid. Aston Martin , courtesy of a rare double-points finish in Singapore and Sebastian Vettel’s superb sixth in Japan suddenly has an unlikely chance to relieving Alfa Romeo of fifth in the standings.
The green team trailed by just seven points and is the in-form team of the two. Aston has scored in all but two of the last nine races; Alfa Romeo has picked up a solitary 10th place in that time.
Haas is also battling to keep eighth ahead of AlphaTauri. The teams are tied, with the American squad ahead only on countback, but the Red Bull junior team is having a better run of things since the break and would be favourite to take the place.
Both battles have millions of dollars at stake as well as pride. Every point and every position counts.
AN F1 CAREER
There are only two seats available in Formula 1, and one of them is currently occupied by a driver in the frame to keep it.
Mick Schumacher is the Haas incumbent and out of contract at the end of the season. The fact he hasn’t been renewed with only four rounds remaining speaks to the trouble he’s in.
Ramping up the pressure is the fact that the team has sounded out a potential replacement. While Guenther Steiner has said several times that he’d be happy to offer the seat to Daniel Ricciardo, behind the scenes Nico Hulkenberg has reportedly been canvassed as an alternative, with Kevin Magnussen said to be happy to partner the German veteran.
But the team also insists that no decision has yet been made. Just earlier this week Steiner told RTL, “It‘s still 50-50. Nothing has been decided yet.
“We will logically not make a decision between Austin and Mexico simply because time is not there. The next time would be the week after Mexico, because we don‘t have a race then and have more time to deal with it.”
Haas is in a tricky position. Schumacher hasn’t fired in the way the team had hoped in his second season, but Hulkenberg or even Antonio Giovinazzi aren’t especially inspiring alternatives. It’s why the decision continues to be pushed out.
Team owner Gene Haas put it bluntly.
“We‘re just waiting,” he told The Associated Press. ”We need Mick to bring some points and we’re trying to give him as much time as possible to see what he can do.
“If he wants to stay with us, he‘s got to show us that he can score some more points. That’s what we are waiting for.”
But that’s a seriously invidious position for the 23-year-old. Not only has he scored points only twice in his F1 career, but the team itself hasn’t scored in seven races as the rest of the midfield passes it by — indeed neither driver has finished higher than 12th in that time.
It’s also at the mercy of the improving AlphaTauri team, which is likely to drop it to ninth in the standings.
Schumacher must also feel disappointed to have had a points-paying position thrown away by a strategy gamble in Japan, particularly given the high price put on a top-10 finish for his career prospects.
Young Schumacher won’t be the only driver driving for his future this weekend.
Logan Sargeant will be on track for Williams in FP1, when he’ll become the first American since Alexander Rossi in 2015 to take part in an official session. He’s lined up to take the second Williams seat so long as he scores the necessary superlicence points at the final Formula 2 round at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix next month.
IndyCar champion Alex Palou will also be on track, taking control of a McLaren for the first practice hour.
Robert Schwarzman will be in one of the Ferrari cars this weekend, as will 2024 prospect Theo Pourchaire for Alfa Romeo.
Antonio Giovinazzi will get his second run in a Haas to try to make his case for a return to the grid next year.
HOW CAN I WATCH IT?
Every practice session, qualifying and the race of the 2022 United States Grand Prix is live on Kayo and Fox Sports.
FP1 is at 6am (AEDT) on Saturday ahead of FP2 at 9am.
FP3 is at 6am on Sunday, with the pre-qualifying show live from 8am ahead of Q1 at 9am.
The United States Grand Prix pre-race show starts at 4:30am before lights out at 6am.
