The Premier League resumed play barely a week and a half ago, and we’ve already seen some plot twists and increased drama. The title race is shaping up to be a tight, two-team race, a usurper is barging its way into Champions League talk, Chelsea are growing more listless by the day and nearly half the league is enveloped in relegation anxiety. Oh, and we’ve still got almost five months to go.
– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (U.S.)
In case you’ve only just begun to ease yourself back into club soccer life, Bill Connelly and James Tyler are here to lay out some of the races and stakes in England that we’ll be talking about pretty much nonstop over the weeks and months to come.
Let’s start with the obvious: Are Arsenal really going to do this? Are Manchester City still the favorites despite their seven-point deficit?
Tyler: Allow me to begin this in simple fashion. No, Arsenal really aren’t going to do this.
I say this for two main reasons: Man City are Michael Myers and Erling Haaland is Freddy Krueger. They are a nightmare lurking further down the table, persistent and unflinching in fulfilling their missions. While things look great for Gunners fans right now — look at us, five points clear! In January! — City simply won’t stop grinding out results and Haaland doesn’t seem especially bothered by obstacles in his path to goal.
Equally, you have the fact that Man City have been here several times in recent years, never once flinching in the face of having to chase down a plucky league leader. Twice, they hauled back to Liverpool after the Reds built up significant leads, benefiting on both occasions from a game in hand that Pep Guardiola’s side seized upon. Meanwhile, Arsenal haven’t been here in a generation and will be all too aware of the historical forces and factors against them. They’re a young team that’s perhaps peaking too early under Mikel Arteta who, to his credit, has been consistent in his vision and has flourished as manager thanks to support from above.
If the Gunners can’t win it this year, they can certainly stay in that mix next season.
Connelly: The best thing I can say about Arsenal’s chances is that they’ve already lasted far longer than I expected them to atop the table, so my opinions might not be particularly accurate here. With no knowledge of the history of these two teams, there’s really no reason to doubt the Gunners at the moment. They thumped West Ham United and Brighton & Hove Albion after the restart, and I think their 0-0 draw with Newcastle United said far more about the Magpies than it does them. (Newcastle are good, is what it said.)
This team has developed beautifully, and they don’t appear to be shying from the moment. Meanwhile, City drew with floundering Everton last weekend! That’s not great!
Oh, but I’m still picking City. Of course I am. They’re five points back and we’re only now hitting the midway point of the season. That they still have both of their matches against each other remaining is intriguing — Arsenal can build plenty of margin for error by splitting the points in those — but City have won four of the past five titles and added the best pure scorer in the world in August. I’m going to assume they win the title right up until they are mathematically eliminated.
(Yes, I’m going to be kind and just ignore the mixed movie references above. It did lead to me googling “Michael Myers Freddy Krueger same movie” earlier, however, so congratulations on that. And no, it doesn’t appear they’ve been in the same full-length movie. A missed opportunity there.)
If we assume Arsenal and City get two of the league’s four Champions League slots, who gets the other two?
Connelly: Former ESPN college basketball analyst Digger Phelps was famous for basically saying that everyone on the bubble for getting into the NCAA tournament would get in. Add them up, and he’d have had about 80 teams in the 68-team field at any given time.
Control is everything in soccer — whether it’s how much you possess the ball, or how organized you are without it — and Liverpool just lack any sense of serenity. Brazil 1982 were fun to watch because they would always concede goals, but with the confidence of a team that can always score one more than you. In the modern era, you can’t keep being 1-0 or 2-1 down with 30 minutes left and expect to find a similar magic. (Lest we forget, too: they needed a header from their goalkeeper in the 94th minute to beat West Brom a couple of years ago, which is how they managed to secure fourth place and Champions League football last season.)
They haven’t been quite as unfortunate with injuries as they were that season — and a few weeks without Virgil van Dijk right now might actually help — but the malaise will continue. Teams know that the Reds are at a low ebb and can be beaten; no fear factor, no good.
OK, so I’m ruling Liverpool out and I think Man United are certainly IN because they have an absence of drama, Erik ten Hag has ironed out a lot of the incompetence and the players who remain after Tropical Storm Ronaldo are happier than ever. I think Newcastle are OUT: too many draws, still a squad reliant on its first string staying fit and until they really start spending, well, how many incredible games can you get from Dan Burn before the magic runs dry? (No offense: the Magpies are a legitimate force now and are firmly in the mix from here on out.)
Who am I picking for fourth? I’m going to regret it, but I’ll go with Tottenham. While Conte’s incessant “give me more quality signings or I’ll go back to Serie A” routine is grating on fans at the moment, the results are there, Kane is back in form, there are signs that Son is trending that way as well and there’s a competency in their defending that you need at the top end of the table. They ain’t perfect, but they get results.
Connelly: It does stand to reason that if Son is suddenly full-on Son again, Spurs might stop always falling behind in matches. But I’m sticking with the Magpies, which is just incredible considering I was predicting them to go down a year ago.
Who finishes higher in the table: Manchester United or Chelsea?
Connelly: I guess I gave away my answer above. At this point, I just trust United to score. Even if or when Marcus Rashford cools off — what a run he’s on of late — they’ve got two of the league’s most creative string-pullers (Bruno Fernandes and Christian Eriksen) working relatively well together, and they’re sixth in the league in xG created.
The beautiful game lives here. Stream top leagues, tournaments and teams.
Sign up for ESPN+
FRIDAY, JAN. 6 (all times ET)
• Standard vs. Sint-Truiden (2:45 p.m.)
• Man United vs. Everton (3 p.m.)
• Valencia vs. Cadiz (3 p.m.)
SATURDAY, JAN. 7 (all times ET)
• Spurs vs. Portsmouth (7:30 a.m.)
• Villarreal vs. Real Madrid (10 a.m.)
• Liverpool vs. Wolves (3 p.m.)
SATURDAY, JAN. 8 (all times ET)
• Man City vs. Chelsea (11:30 a.m.)
• Sevilla vs. Getafe (12:30 p.m.)
• Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona (3 p.m.)
Connelly: Bournemouth had things going for a minute — they pulled 10 points from a six-match unbeaten streak in September and October — but their underlying numbers were always bad, and they seem committed to dropping like a rock now.
After that, I figure Nottingham Forest and Southampton are most likely. Forest are obviously in bad shape, and five months into the season they’re still playing like a team that needs name tags and play sheets for everyone to get on the same page. I haven’t completely given up on them because I think their individual talent level is still really solid (and because I am an unabashed Taiwo Awoniyi fan), and their Wednesday win over Southampton was of immense importance, but their odds still aren’t great (43%), per FiveThirtyEight. Southampton’s current skid certainly makes them solid candidates, too.
All three of these teams have to feel encouraged, however, by the simple fact that they’ve got company. Everton cannot build momentum, and Wolverhampton Wanderers seem to get worse every time they write a giant, new transfer check. Leicester City pulled themselves to relative safety before the World Cup break but have gone back to looking wobbly. Leeds … even West Ham … there isn’t a lot that would surprise me by how this plays out.
Tyler: I would love to see some giants (Everton, West Ham) go down and keep the Premier League looking fresh/random in 2023-24, but I think two of the positions are locked in already. Wolves are a revolving door of turmoil and indifferent form, while Southampton have used up their great escapes in seasons past: much like with Liverpool, you can only dig out so many times before your shovel breaks or you injure yourself. The Saints’ schedule is generous for a while — and return fixtures against the likes of Man United, Spurs, Arsenal and Man City are spread out over March and April — but Che Adams, Theo Walcott and James “Set Pieces” Ward-Prowse don’t produce enough attacking power to stay up.
As for that third spot, I root for chaos but I think it’ll be Bournemouth. You need goals to stay up and they’re conceding twice as much as they’re scoring. Their final five games include Leeds, Chelsea and Man United. They benefit from a crowded crop of clubs around them all struggling to get results, but unless there’s a January push for some proven forwards, it’s hard to see it making much of a difference.
That said, there’s a lovely bit of poetry in that their final game is Everton away. Wouldn’t it be cool if that were essentially a one-game playoff to stay up?
