Predicting the order: How the first round of the AFL draft might play out

3. North Melbourne

George Wardlaw (midfielder – Oakleigh Chargers)

There is a chance the Kangaroos select Sandringham Dragons forward Harry Sheezel here instead, but both boys are bound for Arden Street. Wardlaw is the only other player, aside from Ashcroft and Cadman, who recruiters think would have made for a fitting No.1 pick. An explosive, physical and powerful, Patrick Dangerfield-type midfielder who will add to North’s emerging on-ball brigade.

4. North Melbourne

Harry Sheezel (forward – Sandringham Dragons)

Sheezel is exactly what the Roos’ attack has long lacked – a classy, creative forward who oozes confidence and kicks regular goals. He is so promising he might even be taken a pick earlier, with Wardlaw potentially selected one selection later, and will become the AFL’s first Jewish draftee this century. Should be part of Alastair Clarkson’s plans from the get-go and is capable of going through the midfield in bursts but is considered more valuable as a forward.

5. Essendon

Elijah Tsatas (midfielder – Oakleigh Chargers)

This is where the mystery begins. Will the Bombers pick the talented Tsatas or South Australian Mattaes Phillipou, a mid-forward match-winner full of bravado? No one outside of Adrian Dodoro’s list team knows for sure, but it will be one of those two unless Essendon find a trade partner. New coach Brad Scott was among the Bombers crew who visited Tsatas and his Essendon-supporting family at his home last week. The query among recruiters is whether he can become a genuine inside midfielder – and not just an outside one – but most believe he can and his performances have been top-notch.

6. Gold Coast

Bailey Humphrey (midfielder/forward – Gippsland Power)

The Gippsland Power captain has firmed as the Suns’ top pick across the past week or so after some early hype for West Australian Reuben Ginbey. They travelled to Ginbey’s home town last week to interview him, and have also shown interest in Jhye Clark, but Humphrey is the popular choice to go here. A knee injury interrupted Humphrey’s campaign, but he bounced back with a torrid run of form to stamp himself as one of the best players in this year’s draft. Tough, skilful and equally impactful up forward or through the midfield.

7. Hawthorn

Cameron Mackenzie (midfielder – Sandringham Dragons)

There is intrigue here as well, with the Hawks set to choose between Phillipou, Victorian Cameron Mackenzie and Ginbey. They met with Ginbey on Sunday. List boss Mark McKenzie is on record as saying a bigger-bodied midfielder would complement last year’s additions, including Josh Ward and Connor Macdonald. Jhye Clark has also been a player of interest but isn’t of the same physical stature. Mackenzie is the player most rival clubs overwhelmingly expect Hawthorn to take, after bringing in 188-centimetre midfielder and ex-Cat Cooper Stephens in the trade period.

8. Geelong

Jhye Clark (midfielder – Geelong Falcons)

Is this too obvious: a local product joining the Cats with the selection they scored for taking on former Sun Jack Bowes’ hefty contract? Clark, who is fairly or not likened to Joel Selwood, has been linked to Geelong ever since they nabbed this pick. He also has the runs on the board for the Falcons and Vic Country to be deserving of this status. But the Cats, too, would seriously consider Phillipou if he gets to them, as they would Tsatas, Mackenzie and West Australians Ed Allan and Ginbey. There has also been some talk about key defender Jedd Busslinger.

9. West Coast

Reuben Ginbey (midfielder – East Perth)

Ginbey has admirers as early as Gold Coast’s selection, but most expect him to get to his home-state club, although Hawthorn are the danger. The Eagles split their No.2 pick as part of the trade period mega deal in return for two first-rounders and quickly dispelled the belief they were eyeing off two Western Australians. But that’s how it might work out, starting with Ginbey, a big midfielder who is versatile enough to slot into a defensive role as well. It would be a surprise if the Eagles went in a different direction, but there is a risk fellow local Allan – son of ex-Docker and Hawk Ben – won’t make it to their second selection. Busslinger is another WA player in this range.

10. St Kilda

Mattaes Phillipou (midfielder/forward – Woodville West Torrens)

The Saints will happily snap up Phillipou if Essendon and Hawthorn both pass on him. This selection could depend on which player ends up slipping through, whether it’s Mackenzie, Tsatas, Phillipou or even Clark. Any of those will make for a worthy pick for the start of the next Ross Lyon era. League rule changes in the past two years meant they could match a bid on Mackenzie only if he tumbled outside the top 40 selections, which won’t happen. But St Kilda love Elijah Hewett, so don’t rule out a shock selection.

11. Carlton

Ollie Hollands (midfielder – Murray Bushrangers)

In a draft with many questions, Hollands – brother of Gold Coast’s Elijah, a top-10 pick two years ago – continues to be predicted as a Blue. That suits the tireless runner just fine, since he is a Carlton fan. Hollands would complement coach Michael Voss’ suite of inside midfielders and projects as a wingman at AFL level, although that might be selling him short. Allan is the other possibility here. There is a slim chance someone unexpected tumbles through to the Blues’ selection, but Hollands and Allan seem the best fits. This is also the earliest pick a Jaspa Fletcher bid would come.

12. Brisbane Lions (matching Western Bulldogs’ bid)

Jaspa Fletcher (midfielder – Brisbane Lions Academy)

This would be a nightmare for the Lions but not entirely unexpected, given the at-times testy trade relations between these parties across the years, most recently with Josh Dunkley. The son of Adrian Fletcher scored an invitation to the draft’s opening night and is as good as certain to attract a bid somewhere in the first round. If it’s not Carlton or the Bulldogs, then he’s not expected to make it past Collingwood’s selection. The prolific on-baller earned All-Australian honours this year and will be Brisbane’s second father-son addition. The Dogs may instead opt to draft key defender Busslinger here or could even trade the pick to Melbourne, who are believed to be keen on Allan.

13. Western Bulldogs

Jedd Busslinger (key defender – East Perth)

The Bulldogs have veterans Liam Jones and Alex Keath to hold the fort down back, but Busslinger would give them someone to invest in for the longer-term. A serious shoulder injury ended Busslinger’s season prematurely, but he had already proven himself as a quality interceptor by then. He would add to the club’s WA stocks, which include Aaron Naughton, Tim English, Jason Johannisen, Riley Garcia and Arthur Jones. Phillipou won’t be there but would be of interest if available, as would Hollands and Allan.

14. West Coast

Ed Allan (midfielder – Claremont)

This year’s biggest draft bolter, and has interest much earlier than this, including from Geelong. Doesn’t qualify as a father-son option for Hawthorn or Fremantle despite his father Ben, the Dockers’ inaugural captain, playing for both clubs. Allan is an endurance machine and at 194 centimetres could be a major weapon for the club that nabs him. Elijah Hewett is the wildcard here and his high upside has a number of clubs’ attention. The Eagles have insisted they won’t necessarily go local with both their first-round picks, so it will be interesting to see what they do. Busslinger could also be an option if he is still up for grabs. Another player linked to them at this pick is key forward Matt Jefferson, who would make sense after Josh Kennedy’s retirement and with Jack Darling being 30.

15. Melbourne

Matt Jefferson (key forward – Oakleigh Chargers)

Jefferson is consistently linked with this Demons pick but industry sources are also aware of how highly they rate Allan. If West Coast take Jefferson; expect Melbourne to swoop on Allan – and vice versa. They have also spoken to the likes of Carlton and Western Bulldogs about moving up the order, seemingly with Allan in mind. Jefferson proved a regular goalkicker this year, but there are queries in some quarters on his competitiveness. Would join Jacob Van Rooyen as the targets of the future for the Dees and be a long-term replacement for Ben Brown and Tom McDonald. The only other player who comes up as an alternative option is defender Jakob Ryan.

16. Sydney Swans

Josh Weddle (key defender – Oakleigh Chargers)

Weddle, like many others in the AFL industry, believes he is bound for the Swans. The versatile defender is tall and athletic enough to play on various types, making him an attractive option for Sydney, who will lose Dane Rampe to retirement in the coming years. The Swans are open to trading one of their two first-round picks, in the hope of gaining a quality future selection, so plenty could change here. They and the Giants are set to make five of the next six picks – excluding potential trades and bids – and have their eyes on similar players, including small forward Jacob Konstanty. This might be too early for ruckman Harry Barnett.

17. GWS Giants

Jacob Konstanty (Small forward – Gippsland Power)

This pick is in St Kilda’s sights, but they would have to give up a future first-round pick to prise it from the Giants. West Australian Elijah Hewett is the target if the Saints pull off the deal, while Essendon are also eyeing off Hewett and are keen to climb from No.22. But assuming GWS hold on to the selection, Konstanty looms as the player they will draft. The Giants need more small forward depth, which they partly addressed in trading for ex-Demon Toby Bedford after losing Bobby Hill. Forward-half pressure was something they lacked in 2022, so Konstanty would fit in well with the fit-again Brent Daniels. They were previously linked to Jefferson, but he is likely to be off the board.

17. Collingwood

Jakob Ryan (defender – Glenelg)

Another player who has long been tipped to land at one particular club, in this case the Magpies. Melbourne are the only club ahead of them who could beat them to the punch on the medium-sized defender, whose best traits are his running capacity and kicking. Small forward Charlie Clarke has also been raised as a possibility of landing at Collingwood, while ruckman Harry Barnett might be an option after Brodie Grundy’s departure and the lack of big men on the list. Ollie Hotton is more likely at one of their later picks. If no other club has bid on Jaspa Fletcher, then the Pies are considered a good chance to place a bid, while they have floated this pick to opposition clubs.

18. Adelaide (matching Sydney Swans bid)

Max Michalanney (defender – Norwood)

This is earlier than the Crows would hope, but rival clubs believe this is where the Swans have their father-son prospect Michalanney in their draft order. Could it be payback for not getting the return they wanted from the Jordan Dawson trade? Either way, Adelaide will match and have enough draft points to not go into deficit. The Crows will hope Sydney trade this pick because a bid may not come in that scenario, although the Swans could even place the bid with their earlier selection. Michalanney is the son of Norwood great Jim Michalanney and someone who can defend various types.

19. Sydney Swans

Harry Barnett (ruckman – West Adelaide)

The clear-cut best ruckman in this year’s draft crop and someone the Swans are keen on, if they retain this selection. There are several clubs who would love to secure Barnett, and he won’t still be available at Sydney’s next pick (unless, of course, they trade down to the 20s). This is where the draft starts getting a bit murky and clubs will begin to differ more on their player assessments. High-upside forward Brayden George, who will sit out next year recovering from an ACL rupture, is another option here, especially given the Swans can afford to be patient. Rivals don’t expect them to grab another defender if they already draft Weddle.

20. GWS Giants

Brayden George (forward – Murray Bushrangers)

It’s unclear which of their suite of selections the Giants will offload, but George is someone they could punt on. The highly talented forward almost certainly won’t play next season because of the ACL tear he sustained in August. But he was rated a potential top-10 pick before his injury and plans to add a midfield string to his bow in the future. GWS have also shown interest in fellow forwards Charlie Clarke and Olli Hotton, as well as Darcy Jones, a 175-centimetre midfielder who may become a forward at AFL level.