Phantom draft: Who will get a guernsey at your club?

McKercher would be a No.1 candidate most years – he was that good this past season. Has breakaway speed from stoppages and can hurt opposition teams on the outside with his run and carry, plus long left-foot kicking. Like the AFL’s best mids, McKercher is a regular goalkicker. A joint Morrish Medal winner and Larke Medal runner-up, he performed strongly at every level he played at and barely put a foot wrong.

Otherwise: The Kangaroos traded up to the No.1 selection, placed a bid on Gold Coast academy product Walter, somehow scored Reid in the improbable scenario West Coast overlooked him, or picked Zane Duursma instead.

3. Gold Coast (matching North Melbourne’s bid)

Walter will be a fantastic partner in attack for Ben King, Jack Lukosius and co. He is already physically developed, plays a combative style on offence and defence, loves to tackle, and is a strong contested mark who kicks bulk goals and has a good set shot routine. He and Reid are the only back-to-back under-18 All-Australians in this draft class, illustrating how many runs he has on the board and the special talent he boasts.

Otherwise: North Melbourne opted to pick Duursma, Curtin or Nick Watson instead and leave Hawthorn to bid on Walter.

4. North Melbourne

There might not be a silkier, classier player available this year – and he will become the third member of his family to graduate to AFL/W ranks, behind brother Xavier and sister Yasmin. Younger sibling Willem is on the way, too. A brilliant player to watch in full flight, Duursma projects as a forward who can give his team midfield minutes, too. He can mark overhead or outsmart his opponents with his leading patterns, and is equally deadly on the run, where his elusiveness makes him difficult to tackle.

Otherwise: The Roos already picked him at No.3, and Hawthorn are placing a bid on Walter here. They could also have thrown a curveball by picking Curtin or Watson instead.

5. Hawthorn

Who cares about his lack of height or positional versatility? Certainly not recruiters, many of whom will tell you he is as good as guaranteed to be a future All-Australian small forward who will eventually join the rare 500-goal club. With Luke Breust entering his twilight years, Watson can learn off the Hawks great initially before taking over as the best small forward at Mitch Lewis’ feet, alongside Jack Ginnivan. Capable of the miraculous, overflowing with skill, and was the leading goalkicker at the under-18 championships.

Otherwise: The Hawks swapped picks with the Demons to move two spots lower and grab an extra future first-rounder, or they selected Curtin to bolster their tall defensive stocks. They also expressed interest in Duursma, Connor O’Sullivan and Nate Caddy.

6. Western Bulldogs

A budding star midfielder who is the ultimate professional and put together a season arguably unrivalled by any of his draft peers, including winning the Larke Medal as the best player at the under-18 championships. He is a proven ball-winner with unerring consistency and already dealt with close tags, particularly in school football. Sanders is a beast in the contest, an excellent kick, tweaked his running patterns to be more damaging, and looms as someone who can make an instant impact.

Otherwise: Hawthorn picked Curtin, and the Dogs could not resist the chance to pair Watson with fellow small forward Cody Weightman. There is always the possibility someone else slides to them, too.

7. Melbourne

The win-now Demons love the speedy, skilful and athletic winger who could instantly help with their outside run and much-scrutinised forward-50 entries. Windsor broke into this draft territory with a good mid-year carnival, followed by an impressive finish to the season that answered some questions lingering from a slower start. He can run all day, constantly presents as an option for teammates, showed he is not afraid to tackle, and averaged almost a goal per game at Coates Talent League level.

Otherwise: Melbourne switched spots with Hawthorn to grab one of Watson or Sanders at pick five, leaving the Hawks to pick Curtin, O’Sullivan or Caddy here. The Dees may also pick Curtin at this spot, or accept West Coast’s future first-rounder in the hope it ends up being the No.1 selection next year.

8. GWS

Joins Windsor as the steepest draft climbers since mid-year. The Tasmanian talent burst onto the scene as a mid-sized interceptor down back, including earning under-18 All-Australian selection, before kicking nine goals across two matches late in the season to turn even more heads. He even spent some time in the midfield. Leake is part of a strong crop from the Apple Isle this year and has plenty of admirers, who view him as someone with match-winning ability at the next level.

Otherwise: Windsor and Curtin made it past the Demons, and GWS take one of them instead. Caddy and O’Sullivan could be tempting, too. The other options all involve trades: the Giants will consider accepting West Coast’s future first-round pick, or switching places with Adelaide. Leake could still be available at the Crows’ current selection.

9. Gold Coast (matching Geelong’s bid)

Some clubs rate this Suns-bound big man among this year’s best four or five prospects, such is his potential and array of assets. The under-18 All-Australian ruckman was incredibly one of three players to stop the clock inside six minutes in the two-kilometre time trial at the draft combine, and has kicking skills more common for on-ballers. Read could comfortably fill a role at either end of the ground but also presents as effectively an extra midfielder once the ball hits the ground.

Otherwise: The Cats choose not to bid here, and either pick someone without an academy or father-son connection or make a trade. But Read will be the second of Gold Coast’s academy cohort to receive a bid.

10. Geelong

Curtin is highly unlikely to fall any further than this, especially given West Coast are feverishly trying to get a club to accept their future first-round pick, so they can match the local rising star with Reid. He is best known as a defender, but has played some eye-catching games as a big-bodied midfielder and can go forward as well. Some recruiters believe his preference is to stay in Perth, which may be part of the reason he is still available, while there are talent scouts who rate him in the top three this year.

Otherwise: The Cats let Curtin go past them as well, and grab one of Caddy, hard-running Darcy Wilson or O’Sullivan instead.

11. Essendon

This looms as a fascinating call between Caddy and O’Sullivan, if both are still on the board. Caddy has a pretty long AFL-related lineage, including dual premiership-winning ex-Tiger Josh, but it is his combination of aerial marking prowess, athleticism and agility that makes him such an intriguing prospect. Even had centre-bounce stints this year. Caddy’s fans believe he is tall enough to be a key forward at AFL level, and he would provide welcome support for Peter Wright and Kyle Langford at Tullamarine.

Otherwise: O’Sullivan is the man here, arriving in the same off-season as free agency acquisition Ben McKay to shore up Essendon’s defence. One unlikely option is Curtin’s tumble continuing, which would give the Bombers cause for pause.

12. Adelaide

Wilson is one of the best runners and athletes in this draft class and enjoyed a prolific season in the Coates Talent League, mostly as an on-baller and winger but also in attack, where he booted 16 goals in 11 matches. Projects more as an outside midfielder who can play across half-forward in the AFL, with his running ability – he finished second in the two-kilometre time trial at the combine – looming as a wonderful complementary piece to the Crows’ midfield arsenal.

Otherwise: O’Sullivan is the alternative, given Adelaide just lost Tom Doedee and rely on Nick Murray and Jordon Butts as key defenders, although Josh Worrell is waiting in the wings. It might depend on if the Crows can move up for Curtin. Leake is another possibility if he was available.

13. Melbourne

The Demons are keen enough on Tholstrup that they travelled to Esperance to interview him. The fact he spent most of the year playing senior WAFL football would be a tick for Melbourne, who are trying to win a second premiership under Simon Goodwin. Tholstrup will start his AFL career mostly as a forward who can perform defensive assignments, but the hope is he will develop as a midfielder in the longer term. His energetic, easygoing personality is also seen as a plus.

Otherwise: O’Sullivan, again, looms as an option here. The Dees may not expect the Allies’ under-18s MVP to be up for grabs. He would give them a developing key defender behind soon-to-be 32-year-old Steven May, as well as protection against Harry Petty departing next year. Could Windsor sneak through? Leake and Caddy are other options if they slide.

14. Gold Coast (matching Sydney’s bid)

The third of the Suns’ academy prospects looks set to attract a bid here. The diminutive midfielder has fans inside the top 10 after a standout campaign where he won contested possessions and clearances for fun and stood up in the biggest of moments. Rogers was named the AFL Academy’s best player across matches against Carlton and Port Adelaide’s VFL sides, made the under-18 All-Australian team and had VFL exposure. He is viewed as a team-first player and coach’s dream.

Otherwise: The Swans might bid on Bulldogs father-son forward Jordan Croft first, or simply not bid at all, although the rumblings suggest that is unlikely. Gold Coast and the Dogs will match regardless.

15. Western Bulldogs (matching Sydney’s bid)

The Dogs’ father-son prospect will be at the Kennel, it’s just a matter of when the bid comes. Croft’s athleticism and movement for his size, on top of some standout games throughout the year, make him an exciting prospect. He will join a strong crop of talls at the Bulldogs, including Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Sam Darcy and Jedd Busslinger, who were first-round selections in the past three years. There was some extra investigation into Croft’s concussion history, but the Dogs are confident it won’t be an issue.

Otherwise: The Croft bid might have come a pick earlier, or the Swans will let someone else bid on him and prioritise the player they will actually get.

16. Sydney

This would be a dream result for the Swans, but there is a strong chance the promising key defender is gone by now, with an army of clubs, starting with Hawthorn, liking the versatile big man. O’Sullivan entered the under-18 championships with recruiters wanting to see more from him, and he delivered in spades, including being named an All-Australian and winning the Allies’ MVP. Gobbles up intercept marks at a high rate, performs well as a lockdown defender, boasts excellent endurance, and can swing forward as a change-up.

Otherwise: O’Sullivan is off the board, and Sydney need to look elsewhere. The player most often linked to them is Northern Knights ruckman Will Green, who could develop behind recruit Brodie Grundy, while Wilson or Tholstrup could be available here. There’s been noise about Sandringham Dragons midfielder Charlie Edwards, too.

17. St Kilda

The Saints will desperately hope one of the higher-rated prospects slips through to them. There are mixed reports on DeMattia, but his supporters rate his leadership – he co-captained the Stingrays and Vic Country – and versatility, and believe he is one of the safer options once the draft gets this deep. The underage Australian cricket representative played mostly as a midfielder this year, but projects as a small forward or defender in the AFL, where his speed will be put to good use.

Otherwise: Wilson would almost certainly be the pick here if he makes it through, which is a decent possibility, while Tholstrup has long been linked to the Saints. Arie Schoenmaker, Edwards and Riley Hardeman are other names to watch.

18. Hawthorn (matching Adelaide’s bid)

The Hawks’ father-son prospect, whose father Luke is the club’s football director, is unlikely to make it past the Crows’ second selection – assuming they retain it – but this is a fair landing spot for an athletic key defender with upside. The ability to match a bid on McCabe possibly makes it easier for Hawthorn to choose Watson over Curtin. Had some injury interruptions this year and his form was good rather than brilliant, but his raw assets in genuine key-position height and speed, plus marking ability, make him appealing.

Otherwise: A bid on McCabe could come earlier, but it would be a surprise if he lasted much longer if Adelaide doesn’t jump in. The Hawks will match at this point.

19. Adelaide

Perhaps no player surged more in the last months of the season than the Bendigo-raised midfielder. Melbourne Grammar cricket commitments ate into the start of his football campaign, and he started at half-back with the Dragons, but a breakout midfield performance against Dandenong Stingrays during school holidays was the start of his rise. Edwards has a bit of a funky kicking style, but it does not harm his effectiveness, and his mix of endurance, height and smarts impress recruiters, who think he has major upside.

Otherwise: Hardeman is another player the Crows have expressed interest in at this stage of the draft, but is there where Essendon try to trade back in to grab the WA defender? Schoenmaker is another option here, along with athletic ruckman Taylor Goad and possibly DeMattia.

20. North Melbourne

Hardeman has links to various clubs, including the Roos, but he could even slide into the second round, such is the unpredictability with this year’s draft. His kicking skills are seen as a strength and would give North more penetration off half-back, but they also sometimes come up as a query among the recruiting fraternity. Hardeman captained WA at the championships and was one of his state’s best players, with his intercepting talents another weapon in his arsenal.

Otherwise: DeMattia is the likely pick if he is available. Charlie Edwards and Phoenix Gothard are other options. They love ruckman Green but can probably get him at one of their next two picks. Lance Collard is in the mix on talent, but is viewed by many clubs as too great a flight risk.

21. GWS Giants

This is too early for some, but the Giants never worry about what others think. They like late-blooming Jiath, who is eligible to join Hawthorn as a Next Generation Academy prospect if he makes it beyond pick 40. Like older brother Changkuoth, he is a defensive dasher and interceptor who takes the game on and is considered to be more advanced than his sibling at the same age. Jiath is still raw and there is certainly some risk involved for whichever club grabs him, but the upside is there.

Otherwise: The Giants would love Edwards to fall to them, and he would likely be prioritised over Jiath if available. DeMattia, Bulldogs NGA defender Luamon Lual and Gothard are also in the Giants’ mix here.

22. North Melbourne

The main threat for the Roos’ hopes of drafting Green seems to come from Sydney, but they are keen to grab a ruckman with one of their three picks in this section. He was the starting ruckman in the Coates Talent League’s team of the year, and Vic Metro’s No.1 big man at the under-18 championships. Green’s height, running ability, ruck craft and rate of improvement mean he is in strong consideration to be the second ruckman off the board, behind Gold Coast academy player Read.

Otherwise: If Green is gone, they have done their work on Goad and Mitch Edwards as well, so one of them could be in contention as well. North may instead pick a key defender such as Wil Dawson, who has ruck height, or rebounding backman Hardeman.

23. North Melbourne

After losing Ben McKay in free agency, the cupboard is pretty bare down back for the Kangaroos, especially with Griffin Logue recovering from his ACL setback. Dawson won’t be an instant solution, and comes with some risk, but North’s bevy of high picks means they can take a punt. He started the season as a ruck-forward, but ended it as a key defender, where his competitiveness, aggression and marking ability came to the fore. Hauled in six intercept marks against the Allies at the under-18 championships.

Otherwise: Ollie Murphy is another supersized key defender the Roos could consider, or they could opt for Schoenmaker – if still available – to fill a different defensive role.

24. Gold Coast (matching Collingwood’s bid)

And the Gold Coast quartet is complete. Graham scored an invite to draft night, and the AFL would love a photo with all four academy prospects as first-round selections. But this is no token bid: Graham is an excellent athlete with blistering speed and toughness who illustrated he can play as a midfielder and defender throughout this year. It was only because of the Allies’ enviable midfield depth that he was shifted to half-back at the under-18 championships.

Otherwise: The Magpies might bid on Sydney academy midfielder Caiden Cleary first. Either way, the Suns will not hesitate matching a bid on Graham.

25. Sydney (matching Collingwood’s bid)

Rival recruiters keep coming back to Cleary’s raw numbers when assessing where he fits – and those numbers were pretty spectacular, particularly at the under-18 championships, after which he was named an All-Australian. He is not blessed with speed or known for his kicking, but he is very good in the contest, has a knack for finding the Sherrin and finished equal-fifth in the two-kilometre time trial at the draft combine. This bid might be earlier than the Swans would like, but they will match.

Otherwise: The Pies might play nice and let Cleary slide a bit more, but the word is he would not fall any further than Richmond’s second-round selection.

26. Collingwood

Most clubs outside Western Australia appear unwilling to take the risk on drafting Collard, whose mercurial playing style – at ground level and in the air – is likened to the Magpies’ Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill. Collingwood are seriously considering adding him to their small forward stocks, but also weighing up key-position players at both ends. West Coast hoped for a long while their NGA product would fall outside the top 40 to them, but his superb finish to the season put paid to that.

Otherwise: Key defender Murphy and tall forwards Archer Reid and Logan Morris are in the frame here. Another player linked to the Magpies is Schoenmaker.

27. Adelaide

The Crows could do with a developing ruckman behind Reilly O’Brien and Kieran Strachan, and the added bonus with Goad is he is a local. Plucked from obscurity and a basketball background in the pre-season, Goad’s rapid development throughout the year saw him rocket up draft boards. He put an exclamation mark on his pre-draft resume with a 2.97-second 20-metre sprint time at the combine, which ranked eighth overall. An investment in Goad is for the long term but his upside excites recruiters.

Otherwise: Hardeman and Schoenmaker are among the alternative options if still available.

28. St Kilda

The Saints are one of a number of clubs that have expressed interest in Schoenmaker, who is this draft’s longest, and arguably best, kick on his trusty left boot. That asset should stand up well in the AFL, too. An off-field indiscretion left him outside the Devils’ program at the start of the year, but he made up for lost time with a strong season after that. Schoenmaker has key defender height but is more of a third tall or half-backer who was a good interceptor at underage level.

Otherwise: Fellow defender Archie Roberts fits St Kilda’s bayside recruiting blueprint, while Hardeman would be considered, too, if he makes it here. They could look to add a developing ruckman, with Mitch Edwards a possibility.

29. Carlton

Moir entered the year as a potential top-five prospect in this draft class after an ultra-impressive season last year, but his inability to replicate that form, with injuries thrown in, saw him tumble down the order. Moir’s SA coach Tony Bamford told this masthead the talented teenager felt the pressure of living up to expectations this past season. There were still glimpses of his ability, and he is wonderfully skilled, and the Blues appear willing to punt on his upside, as they did with Harry Lemmey last year.

Otherwise: Lual, Roberts, Jiath and Cooper Simpson are among the possibilities here, with so much dependent on what happens before them.

Who else is being linked to clubs?

Richmond have circled forward-ruck Archer Reid – brother of Essendon’s Zach – if he makes it through to them in the second round, as part of their post-Jack Riewoldt plan and after trading Ivan Soldo. The Tigers are also linked with Jiath, Lual, running machine Aiden O’Driscoll and George Stevens. Stevens looks poised to find a home in the second round, with Essendon and Geelong also keen on him. The Cats could grab draft slider Murphy, a key defender who won Vic Metro’s MVP. Collingwood are keeping tabs on Tasmania Devils club champion Geordie Payne, and Fremantle are the club most often associated with Werribee VFL standout Shaun Mannagh. St Kilda coach Ross Lyon’s wish for more running power has seen them express interest in Sandringham’s endurance king Tarkyn O’Leary, while Port Adelaide – who won’t enter the draft until very late – are keeping an eye on Will Lorenz and Jack Callinan, who also has interest from Brisbane. The Bulldogs are also tracking Lorenz. Adelaide could pick Kane McAuliffe if their pick situation changes via trades. Could Sydney take a flyer on Eastern Ranges ball magnet Tyson Sruk, who won 37 disposals in the Coates Talent League grand final?