The mid-season break is behind us, and on the evidence of the first day of practice at the Belgian Grand Prix, so too is the European summer.
Formula 1 was subjected to what might be termed classic Spa-Francorchamps weather. Sometimes wet, sometimes dry and sometimes both depending on where you were standing around the track, conditions made getting a read on the circuit difficult.
Max Verstappen set a blistering pace in FP2, more than 0.8 seconds quicker than Charles Leclerc, but neither will start on the front row owing to engine penalties.
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It will therefore fall to their teammates to bear the flag for their teams, but Carlos Sainz was 0.3 second slower than Charles Leclerc in fifth, while a rear wing problem left Sergio Perez 1.8 seconds slower than Verstappen in 10th.
The crucial second practice session was run in an ambient temperature of just 17°C, with the track barely 3°C warmer. The Pirelli tyres — the supplier has brought the middle range of compound to this race — struggled to get up to temperature in the weather, which meant most teams battled to nail set-up before the end of the day.
More to the point, intermittent rain meant track running was significantly disrupted through both sessions. Long-run data was extremely limited, with most drivers setting little more than two laps on full tanks and therefore generating little information on expectations for Sunday.
Further, with the weather set to warm marginally and dry substantially in the next two days, what the teams learnt on Friday could yet prove misleading anyway.
Predicting the competitive order is therefore anyone’s guess ahead of qualifying.
EVERYONE GETS A PENALTY, BUT SOME CAN BETTER AFFORD THEM THAN OTHERS
The only thing we know for sure is that the battle at the front will be missing its two biggest protagonists, with Verstappen and Leclerc foremost among a gaggle of drivers set to start near the back of the grid for a variety of power unit and gearbox penalties.
This is the second time this season Leclerc will start out of position, having suffered terminal power unit failures in Spain and Azerbaijan. He recovered to fifth after starting from the back in Canada.
Ferrari, however, admitted in Hungary before the mid-season break that it’s yet to figure out the cause of its litany of engine problems, and though it has some countermeasures in place, those temporary fixes didn’t prevent Carlos Sainz’s engine from grenading itself in Austria.
Verstappen, on the other hand, will be hoping this will be his first and only power unit penalty, his Honda engine having been largely reliable this season.
The title-contending pair will be joined at the back by Lando Norris, Esteban Ocon, Valtteri Bottas and Mick Schumacher. Zhou Guanyu is also likely to take new engine parts on Saturday and earn himself a penalty.
The Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is one of the tracks traditionally elected to serve grid drops given its long straights and DRS zones make recovering places in the race easier than at other circuits.
It also sets up a driver for a hopefully penalty-free run to the end of the season, with nine grands prix left, including this weekend’s race.
That’s good news for Leclerc and Verstappen. Assuming Zhou joins the list of the penalised — and there may well be others who join between now and qualifying too — the two title contenders will likely start as high as 14th and 15th.
Most of the cars starting behind them are also decent midfield machines, which will also go some way to easing their recoveries.
But regardless of the circumstances softening their sentences, there’s no escaping the fact that Verstappen can still better afford to sacrifice a race than Leclerc. His 80-point advantage can sustain three DNFs in a row without being overturned, giving him confidence that this weekend’s race will have no major effect on his championship trajectory.
The Monegasque, on the other hand, will be no less up against it in the race for having his first few overtakes accounted for in the grid order. The pressure will be on him to make the most of this week’s unusual arena for the title fight.
SAINZ AND PEREZ LEFT TO FLY THE FLAG
Verstappen’s dominant FP2 performance wasn’t replicated by any of the other frontrunners, meaning it’s wide open between Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez to contend for victory despite having been well off the pace.
“It is true that Verstappen looked pretty quick today, especially in FP2 with the new soft,” Sainz admitted. “In the long run we were closer, but he seems to be on it this weekend and we’re going to have to extract the maximum out of it.“
But the Spaniard said Ferrari had taken a wrong turn on set-up in FP2 that, if reversed, would see him return to competitiveness ahead of qualifying.
“Honestly, today I was comfortable and happy with the car,” he said.
“I was very happy with the car in FP1. In FP2 we did some changes that we knew might not have gone in the right direction, but if you give me back the car from FP1, I’m pretty sure we can be on the pace tomorrow.”
Perez also contended that he had more to show, having had his FP2 disrupted by rear wing problems.
“We will see what we are able to pick up in the data, but I think we are looking good and can be competitive, so we just have to make sure we get everything right for qualifying and the race,” he said.
In ordinary circumstances this should be a straight fight between two drivers battling for status and respect, with their title hopes long since extinguished, but given the unusual nature of the weekend so far, they might not have things all their own way.
MERCEDES GETS A GOOD SHOT AT A FIRST VICTORY
Having two victory contenders starting so far back represents a golden opportunity for Mercedes to score that long-awaited first victory of the season.
Or at least it should.
Fresh off its second double podium in Hungary and George Russell’s shock pole position there, Lewis Hamilton and Russell were sixth and eighth, 1.3 seconds and 1.5 seconds off the pace respectively.
It was a puzzling lack of performance on a weekend the team needs to pull out the stops to capitalise on the frontrunners fighting with one arm tied behind their backs.
“We’re just not very quick,” Hamilton said. “I don’t know why.
“We’re going out and giving it everything we’ve got. It could be tyres, it could be tyre temps, it could be wing level, it could be a multitude of things.
“It doesn’t feel disastrous out there, it’s just we’re a long way off.”
Russell noted that tyre temperatures in cool conditions have been a problem for the W13 all season and that unlocking the rubber could be a shortcut to the front.
“I think we’ve struggled with it quite a lot this season, to get temperature into the tyres,” Russell said. “I struggled quite a lot today with that on very compound we used.
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“You can find a huge amount of performance when you get it in the right window, so there’s a little but of optimism there, but for the sure the gap to max and the Ferraris is pretty extravagant.
“But we’ll all be working flat out tonight to try and get on top of it.”
Russell cautioned that Hungary levels of performance shouldn’t be expected, however, with little commonality between the Hungaroring and Spa-Francorchamps.
“We’re pretty used to having bad Fridays, so let’s see if we can turn it around, but I don’t think there’ll be any guarantees we can find the performance that we found in the last race,” he said.
“It’s a totally different circuit. We’re low downforce here, Hungary was max downforce. It was hot there, it’s very cold here today, drizzling every single time I was out on track — not really any comparable settings you can carry over.”
But the clock is ticking, and letting a race like this slip past would be a major blow to the team’s season.
