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They say all good things must come to an end, that champions won’t be champions forever.
And, as the rain fell at Carrington Park last Saturday night, there seemed a sobering sense that things will be different at Penrith this year.
How different exactly? Well, even after a loss to the previously winless Tigers, it’s still too early to answer that question.
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Hynes and Luai in Blues No. 6 battle! | 04:01
Because while all good things will come to an end and the Panthers won’t be champions forever, there is reason to believe Penrith could still make history this season.
But if the Panthers are to become the first team to win three premierships in a row in the NRL era, it will look very different to the record-breaking dominance of years past.
It’s not so much that Penrith is not a title contender in 2023. Far from it, in fact.
Blowout wins over Manly and Canberra are proof of just how far the Panthers can go, if they get it right. For the first time in a long time though, Penrith hasn’t got it right.
They’ve taken the wrong option, lost games they usually wouldn’t and generally lacked the poise and polish that made them a premiership powerhouse. James Graham put it best while speaking on Triple M last Sunday.
“They’ve been so far ahead, that’s what people have become accustomed to,” the English veteran said.
“I think now they’re back in the pack. The pack is bigger and with their best 17 on the field they’re a chance but they lose a couple of players and they’re just like any other team.”
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It’s not as simple a case as the hunter becoming the hunted either. The Panthers have been the hunted for a few years now and still maintained a level of intensity to drop only four games last year.
Already, Penrith has lost just as many in the space of nine games in 2023. But there is one thing that has changed, outside of the obvious holes left behind by Apisai Koroisau and Viliame Kikau.
The Panthers aren’t starting games as well as they had in the past and that is giving opposition teams an edge, confidence that they are in with a shot against the defending champions.
It’s a surprise given how strong Penrith started games last year and something coach Ivan Cleary conceded to reporters earlier this week.
“I feel like we’ve brought the best out of everyone,” Cleary said.
“But we’ve helped that, to be quite honest. Particularly in the starts of games, we have only had the one game against Manly where I would say that we started in the first half to the kind of level we would like.
“So, that’s a lot of games where we haven’t and then we’ve had to battle and when you’re doing that you keep the opposition confident.”
The Panthers have led at halftime in just three of eight games this season compared to 18 of 26 last year where, you guessed it, they won all 18.
Now, heading into this weekend’s Magic Round clash against the Warriors, Penrith is at risk of losing three-straight games for the first time since the end of the 2019 season.
That season, of course, being the last one the Panthers found themselves out of the top eight and out of the premiership picture entirely.
So, what’s behind Penrith’s fall back to the pack and what are things they are doing well that could still keep the Panthers in contention come the first week of October?
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It’s hardly groundbreaking analysis to point out that the Panthers are missing the threat of Koroisau at dummy-half, but it also can’t be ignored at the same time.
The tandem of Mitch Kenny and Soni Luke could work given Penrith started Kenny in some games last year to get through the defensive work early, freeing up Koroisau to take advantage of tired forwards through the middle.
But an injury-interrupted pre-season and concussion against Parramatta has limited Luke’s minutes and hence his ability to find his rhythm in first grade.
In spite of that Luke has shown glimpses of the craftiness that had teammate Spencer Leniu calling him as a “miniature Api” in an interview with foxsports.com.au last year.
The 27-year-old already has two try assists, one linebreak assist and, crucially, four forced dropouts from an average of just 35 minutes on the field this season.
Those forced dropouts are particularly important as they are just one example of the variety he offers Penrith’s attack when compared with Kenny, who has just one try assist.
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For coach Cleary, the focus will be on continuing to build up Luke’s minutes until he is confident and comfortable to fill a similar role to that of Koroisau last year.
Otherwise, the Panthers risk falling into the same trap they found themselves in between 2016 and 2019, where they cycled between six different starting hookers in the search for a long-term option.
In further proof of how big a loss Koroisau is, he fell just six try assists and eight linebreak assists short in the 2022 season of what all six managed starting in those four years at Penrith.
As for the loss of Viliame Kikau, that has impacted five-eighth Jarome Luai’s game more than anyone else and in turn left Nathan Cleary to shoulder even more responsibility in attack.
Cleary leads the NRL’s halfbacks for line engagements (144) this season while ranking second for total try involvements (20) and third for possessions (511).
Luai, on the other hand, has 41 line engagements, four total try involvements and averages 39 possessions per game.
To put that in context, here are how Luai’s numbers rank against five-eighths from Cronulla, North Queensland and Parramatta — last year’s other top-four teams.
Jarome Luai: Line engagements (41), Total try involvements (4), Possessions (39)
Dylan Brown: Line engagements (96), Total try involvements (14), Possessions (51)
Matt Moylan: Line engagements (63), Total try involvements (17), Possessions (43)
Tom Dearden: Line engagements (44), Total try involvements (7), Possessions(62)
Kikau’s dual threat as a runner and ball player meant Penrith, and more specifically Luai, was better served giving him early ball and letting the Fijian international put the defence in two minds.
Now that responsibility has fallen onto Luai and he did well to execute on a set play last weekend that started on the right edge and ended with a Tyrone Peachey try.
But Luai’s ball-playing, particularly in the opposition red zone, will need to improve for the Panthers to pose more of a threat.
Of course, Penrith’s average attack this year is not on Luai alone.
In general, the Panthers have become too predictable with the same set plays that were far more successful in the past because they were delivered with precision and speed.
A lot of that comes back to sharp service out of dummy-half, something Koroisau offered.
Shrewd new addition Zac Hosking could play a role in addressing Penrith’s lack of potency close the line, with sharp hole running that makes him an immediate threat for the defence.
Although Hosking has been used as a decoy over eight times in three of Penrith’s past five games.
PENRITH’S AVERAGE ATTACK
Run metres: 1525 (1st)
Tackles inside opposition 20: 33.9 (2nd)
Red zone ratio: 13.6 (13th)
Points scored: 22.9 (7th)
Tries scored: 3.9 (9th)
Linebreaks: 4.3 (10th)
If there is one thing saving Penrith at the moment though, it is its defence, which rates right up to the top of the league across the board.
The Panthers also, as evidenced above, are having no problems getting into opposition territory and a lot of that comes back to the run metres their outside backs generate.
Brian To’o (175) and Sunia Turuva (149 metres) ranks first and fifth in the league for average run metres among wingers while Edwards (166) only falls behind Seb Kris for fullbacks.
PENRITH’S BRICK WALL
Points conceded: 13.9 (1st)
Tries conceded: 2.4 (1st)
Linebreaks conceded: 2.3 (1st)
Run metres conceded: 1306 (2nd)
Missed tackles: 24.5 (2nd)
And while several teams are dealing with injuries at the moment, the returns of James Fisher-Harris, Liam Martin and Spencer Leniu in the coming weeks will help.
Fisher-Harris returns for the Panthers this week after missing the past four weeks with a knee injury and since the start of 2018 Penrith has won only 54 percent of games without the Kiwi international compared to 74 percent with him
The Panthers were guilty of trying to go around the Tigers far too often last week in Bathurst, seemingly ignoring the wet conditions and coughing up cheap possession as a result.
It was not a one-off either though, with Penrith making the same mistake even in its pre-season World Club Challenge game against St Helens.
With losses to Brisbane and Parramatta also coming in rain-affected games, it had Graham wondering whether adjusting to wet weather could be Penrith’s Achilles heel.
“I just wonder if playing in the rain not only affects their style but also gives the opposition the ability to jam and stop the ball getting to the edge a bit,” Graham said on Triple M.
“I think that’s what St. Helens did, I was watching that game closely live and noticed there was a real aggression on the edge and on the Penrith shifts. I think generally they are missing a few players as well.
“When you’re missing those type of players that have such an emphasis on line speed, aggression in defence and attacking with your defence, you’re going to lose that spark and the players they’re bringing in just likely don’t have the capabilities.”
Fisher-Harris, Leniu and even Martin on the edge are the kind of no-nonsense forwards who run hard and straight, something Penrith was lacking dearly last week against the Tigers.
Although Fisher-Harris looked a shadow of his usual self before being sidelined through injury, averaging 75 run metres — the lowest in his career since 2017.
Fisher-Harris was just one of several Panthers who competed in last year’s Rugby League World Cup and Gorden Tallis questioned on Triple M last week whether that may be partly to blame for Penrith’s slow start to the season.
“They’ve had a really tough start,” Tallis said.
“They had Parramatta, Brisbane, a World Club Challenge and a lot of their players have come back from the World Cup. They’ve had a pretty hectic start and they’ve been up for it. They’ve won two competitions.
“They are the elite, everybody guns for you, everybody wants you as a scalp. You can’t win every game.”
Tallis is right. No team has won every game this year and that in itself is the biggest reason why there is no need to panic at the foot of the mountains just yet.
The Panthers have been far from their best and still sit in seventh place on the ladder, admittedly with two bye points already up their sleeve.
But the broader point is that no other team has really announced themselves as an outright contender in the same way Penrith had in the past few seasons.
Only last weekend South Sydney romped to a 32-6 win over Brisbane, the competition’s previous bench mark.
And just a fortnight ago Penrith seemed destined to beat that same Rabbitohs team if not for some late Alex Johnston magic.
A finish fit to begin ANZAC Round… | 00:51
It’s why former premiership-winning halfback Cooper Cronk is not reading too much into Penrith’s underwhelming start to the season.
All good things may come to an end but it is far too early to declare this the end of what has been one of the most dominant forces in the NRL era.
Sure, they may not be the same Panthers team with the same ruthlessness that resulted in two-straight premierships. But that doesn’t mean they can’t win another. They’ll just have to work even harder.
“I’m not worried at all,” Cronk told foxsports.com.au.
“As a fan of what Penrith have done for a long time I wouldn’t be worried at all.
“They have lost five games this year including the World Club Challenge all by four two points or less. I think two or three have been field goals.
“They are still the best defensive team in the competition.
“Yes Api Koroisau moved on and he is dynamic, but they have still got the Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary combination to control that middle third of the field.
“The big thing for me with Penrith is not what they are doing now. It is how they play four weeks out from the end of the season.
“I think that is the key. They can hover between wins and losses for the next period of time, but if they are healthy with four weeks to go and their best players play well in Origin and their energy tank is still high, I would still be very confident if I was a Penrith supporter.”
