Australia remains in the box seat to claim a spot in the World Test Championship final this June – unless disaster strikes in India, or there are repeats of last time’s time-based stuff-up.
The ICC’s attempt to create a Test-based world crown, given the impracticalities of a ODI or T20-style tournament using the format, saw the Aussies rob themselves of a chance of glory in 2021.
In the inaugural series New Zealand defeated India by eight wickets in the final in Southampton, after the Kiwis were gifted a spot by their trans-Tasman rivals’ slow over rate. Australia finished third in the league table, but would’ve made the final if not for a deduction born out of the Boxing Day Test against India in late 2020.
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There’ll be no exact repeat of that scenario in 2023, with New Zealand already well and truly eliminated from the race for the final, along with Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Pat Cummins’ Australian side is just one win away from locking up a spot in the final, claiming a dominant position on the league table.
Cummins, when asked about the World Test Championship ahead of the Sydney Test, said they have been more motivated by the crown in this tournament than the previous one.
“It was still a new concept, so even things like overs rates, it wasn’t really spoken about as importantly as perhaps what we think about it now,” Cummins said.
“Every point is vital. It’s been a big driver for us over the last couple of years. I think playing a final in London against India, say, at a neutral venue, that’s really exciting.”
Four wins and a draw across the Test summer against the West Indies and South Africa, who were second coming into the just-completed three-Test series but now rank fourth, have placed the Aussies well on top.
CURRENT WORLD TEST CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS
1. Australia – 75.56%
2. India – 58.93%
3. Sri Lanka – 53.33%
4. South Africa – 48.72%
5. England – 46.97%
6. West Indies – 40.91%
7. Pakistan – 38.09%
8. New Zealand – 27.27%
9. Bangladesh – 11.11%
Teams are ranked based on the percentage of possible points won during their Test matches – a win is worth 12 points, a tie worth 6 each, a draw worth 4 each and a loss worth 0.
There are then deductions based on slow over rates, primarily impacting India and England in this second tournament.
India has been deducted five of its 104 points while England has lost a whopping 12 of its 136 points – losing eight points alone for a slow over rate in the first Ashes Test in December 2021.
Based on results so far and remaining matches before the June 2023 final at The Oval, England would not be able to qualify even if they hadn’t received those deductions, but they would’ve been narrowly in fourth rather than well back in fifth.
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Australia has been the dominant Test side through this current league, losing just once (against Sri Lanka at Galle in July 2022), with all other teams having lost at least four times.
But the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy tour, which will see Australia play four Tests in India beginning February 9, is set to determine who makes the final.
As mentioned above, Australia needs just one win to cement a spot in the World Test Championship final.
While South Africa can mathematically still qualify, with a two-Test series against the West Indies to be played at home across late February and early March, the favourites to face Australia in the final are India and Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka still has a two-Test series in New Zealand left in mid-March, while India has the Border-Gavaskar series.
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If India wins at least three Tests (without any points deductions) against Australia it will qualify, but could fall as low as fifth if it loses the series 0-4.
While the scenarios are complex, in one example, a 2-0 series win for India would mean they make the final as long as Sri Lanka doesn’t win 2-0 over New Zealand.
In a sense Sri Lanka has an advantage because it has fewer chances to drop points, though at the same time it would make losing even one Test against New Zealand incredibly costly.
Either way the most likely scenario will see Australia, likely just days before the five-Test Ashes tour begins at Edgbaston, facing either India or Sri Lanka in neutral English territory – a fascinating prospect.
