There are three other teams left in the World Cup and the Matildas have beaten them all in the past nine months. See where we’re going with this?
A fortnight ago, when Australia had lost to Nigeria, a campaign beyond even the group stage felt a precarious notion.
A semi-final appearance at a home tournament, then, was deemed improbable. No host nation since the United States in 2003 has reached the final four, and certainly not one missing a captain and two concussed players and bereft of strikers.
Nine nations sit above 10th-ranked Australia in the FIFA rankings and many of those were considered possibilities to lift the trophy – and that’s before mentioning 11th-placed Japan’s unexpectedly brilliant run.
But something has happened over the past three weeks.
The world’s top two in Germany (No.2) and America (No.1) went out in the group stage and round of 16 respectively. Brazil (No.8) also did not make it out of their group.
Australia regained one forward in Mary Fowler and ousted Olympic gold medallists Canada (No.7), then regained another in Sam Kerr and removed Denmark (No.13), and had almost a full squad at their disposal to see off France (No.5).
Then Spain got rid of the Netherlands (No.9), and suddenly a very complicated puzzle appeared solvable. And the Matildas would know – they have solved this one before.
England’s Lauren Hemp scores in front of a hostile Colombian-heavy crowd during Saturday night’s quarter-final win.Credit: Getty
The other semi-final will take place between Sweden (No.3) and Spain (No.6) on Tuesday in Auckland. Tony Gustavsson’s Australia defeated the former 4-0 last November and the latter 3-2 in February.
Whichever the Matildas meet in a hypothetical final will come with a tried-and-tested blueprint of how to overcome them.
Which brings us to the opponent they must beat to get there: world No.4 England. The same England that Australia defeated 2-0 in April.
England and Australia have floated in parallel orbits this tournament, threatening to collide in the round of 16 before bouncing off in opposite directions of the draw.
That both avoided each other then is the reason both are here now. Of course, it had to be this way. Of course, this great sporting rivalry would be renewed with so much at stake and is on a far more even keel than it would have been considered a year ago, or nine months ago, or last week.
It is difficult to overstate the important place the Lionesses hold in English hearts.
Last year’s European Championship triumph on home turf was their first major tournament victory since the men’s 1966 World Cup. In other words, the women did what the men could not for 56 years and counting.
It was the culmination of decades of women’s growth in a football landscape that was for centuries dominated by the men.
And, much like the Matildas mania which has overtaken Australia, England was swept up in the trophy’s significance.
England’s Chloe Kelly celebrates after scoring England’s second goal in the European Championship final at Wembley in front of more than 80,000 fans.Credit: AP
So was the world. By the time the World Cup draw was conducted in October, England had usurped back-to-back reigning champions the US as favourites to win it.
However, just as there is a growing feeling this may be Australia’s time, there has been a niggly sense England may have already had theirs.
Captain Leah Williamson is sidelined with an ACL injury, as are fellow standouts Fran Kirby and the Beth Mead, the Euro 2022 player of the tournament and top scorer.
Coach Sarina Wiegman’s breakout star, Lauren James, is serving a two-match suspension for standing on Nigeria defender Michelle Alozie in the round of 16.
That is not to say England are not still strong, and cannot still win.
Australia’s Charlie Grant heads the ball past Lucy Bronze to score against England in April.Credit: Getty
Both the players and Wiegman, after coming from behind to seal their quarter-final 2-1 over Colombia, felt their experience in front of a hostile Stadium Australia crowd doubled as a preparation of sorts for what is to come at the same venue on Wednesday night.
“We expect a similar crowd for Australia. That’s incredible. We are really looking forward to it. We know that it’s an away game. Let’s try to [use it as] an inspiration,” Wiegman said.
The key difference is the majority of that crowd mostly clad in Colombian yellow were a mixture of the country’s diaspora, neutrals and Australians supporting their newest, most loved “second team”.
This time Australians will be supporting their first team. The one that has disrupted the sporting establishment, pushed back news bulletins and demanded special match broadcasts on international flights.
What that means in terms of advantage and disadvantage depends from whose camp one views the tie. Support can equate to pressure, but it can also conjure the unthinkable – like a marathon penalty-shootout win over France.
Whichever way you swing it, the wind of more than 75,000 at your back is a better problem to have than a headwind of the same number.
England will know the sea of green and gold will probably be more polite than frequenters of the Long Room at Lord’s, but they will also have observed a parochial appetite for booing whenever an opposing player touches the ball.
“They’re a world-class team and they’re going to be very difficult to come up against,” said Matildas veteran Clare Polkinghorne, who played in defence against England in April.
“But we’re definitely looking forward to the challenge, and we know if we play to our potential we’ve got belief in what we can do.”
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