It is an immense quirk that we get about 10% of the way through the soccer season before the rosters are actually locked into place. It’s difficult for an American sports fan to grasp, I’m sure. In college football, rosters are mostly set three months before the season starts. In professional sports, you’ve got a trade deadline — which more-or-less matches the purpose of soccer’s January transfer window — but you don’t see blockbuster trades two games into the season. But in soccer, we already saw pretty dramatic shifts in expectations before we even knew for sure who would be playing for, say, Chelsea and Manchester United.
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With the transfer deadline only days away, however, we can begin to make some assumptions regarding who is playing for whom. We can also draw conclusions (until January) regarding a team’s strengths, potential vulnerabilities and the players who will have the most significant impact on both the Champions League and the top league races on the continent.
Here, we’ll focus on that last part. Here are the 25 most important players — to both their teams and to Europe’s top prizes — of the 2022-23 soccer season.
Keys to a top-four finish (and success in Europe, too)
Obviously we’ve had to grow accustomed to the fact that not many teams will actually contend for their league’s crown in a given season. (Italy is arguably the exception to that rule, but we’re not exactly far removed from Juventus‘ nine-year title streak there.) But the race for the top four in England, Germany, Spain and Italy — with spots in the Champions League on the line — can be wonderfully chaotic.
Here are some of the players who could have the most impact on said races and, in some cases, potentially control their team’s destiny in this season’s European competitions.
25. Sheraldo Becker, FW, Union Berlin. Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen have all disappointed out of the gate to some degree, and only one team has been able to match Bayern Munich‘s 10 points four matches into the Bundesliga season: that’s right, it’s Union Berlin.
Urs Fischer’s squad is dramatically outperforming its expected goals (+0.8 xG per match, 2.8 actual goals), and we know by now that regression-to-the-mean will kick in at some point. But if Union can continue to get enough production from the tandem of Becker (four goals from 1.0 xG, two assists from seven chances created) and American newcomer Jordan Pefok (two goals from 0.7 xG, two assists from seven chances) along with their customarily stingy defense, they could have a legitimate shot at a top-four finish and a first-ever Champions League appearance.
24. Martin Odegaard, MF, Arsenal. He’s 23 and he joined the Gunners permanently barely a year ago, but he has already become captain and Arsenal has responded with an incredible start: four matches, four wins.
It is sometimes difficult to statistically measure a midfielder’s impact, but Odegaard is hustling (7.9 ball recoveries per 90) and creating (0.79 goals and assists per 90), and he’s one of only three Premier Leaguers to have produced at least 30 progressive passes, 20 progressive carries and four shots on goal thus far. The other two: Manchester City‘s Kevin De Bruyne and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes. That’s good company.
If Arsenal makes its first Champions League appearance since 2017 next season — or hell, if the Gunners threaten to win their first EPL title since 2004 — Odegaard will be the No. 1 reason why.
… exploding up-field, setting up a tap-in goal for Jeremie Frimpong and reminding everyone that, despite losing their first three matches of the Bundesliga season (and losing to a third-division team in the DFB Pokal), Leverkusen has more speed and terrifying attacking potential than almost anyone in Europe.
19. Steven Bergwijn, FW, Ajax. Sometimes transfers just don’t work out. After exploding for 19 league goals and 22 assists over about one-and-a-half seasons for PSV Eindhoven, Bergwijn moved to Tottenham, where he managed just seven goals and five assists over about two-and-a-half Premier League seasons. He moved to Ajax in July, and with manager Erik ten Hag leaving along with a number of stars — attackers Sebastien Haller (Borussia Dortmund) and Antony (Manchester United), plus Lisandro Martinez (Manchester United), Noussair Mazraoui (Bayern) and Ryan Gravenberch (Bayern) — Bergwijn has quickly become a focal point of the new Ajax attack. And he has four goals in four matches to show for it.
Ajax will likely have to beat Napoli and Rangers to advance to the Champions League knockout rounds (assuming Liverpool wins the group as forecasted) and if Bergwijn maintains this form, they could not only pull it off, but maybe advance a little further too.
Honorable mention: Romelu Lukaku (FW, Inter Milan), Benjamin Sesko (FW, FC Salzburg), Tanguy Nianzou (DF, Sevilla), Liel Abada (FW, Celtic), Goncalo Ramos (FW, Benfica), Nuno Tavares (MF, Marseille)
The future stars
We have recently witnessed star turns for two of the most impressive teenage soccer players of all time — Kylian Mbappe (now 23) and Erling Haaland (22) — but they’re already old news. (Kidding. They’re very high on this list.) The next generation of 20-and-under stars is nipping at their heels.
We’ll be talking a lot about this quintet in the months and years to come.
Koulibaly not only has to become a high-level Premier League defender — he probably will, as he’s already proving to be strong in both intervention and buildup play — but he also has to stay in the lineup if Chelsea is to avoid serious depth issues in front of Eduoard Mendy.
9. Thiago, MF, Liverpool. You know what you’re getting with Thiago Alcantara. When he’s fit, he’s going to serve as one of the best passers in the world, someone who completes a 35-yard long ball like it’s a casual 10-yarder. He is unafraid of making some physical interventions when he needs to, and he can completely transform an attack. He’s also going to get hurt a lot: since becoming a regular at Barcelona in 2011-12, he has topped 2,000 league minutes just twice, and he’s averaged just 1,696 since joining Liverpool. Oh yeah, and he got hurt 51 minutes into this season.
Liverpool entered the season knowing it might have midfield depth issues, and injuries to Thiago and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain have meant that 36-year-old James Milner has already appeared in all four league matches. That seems unsustainable. Thiago should return soon, and it would behoove everyone if he was able to actually stay in the lineup for a while.
5. Darwin Nunez, FW, Liverpool. Granted, his torrid start was obstructed by a pesky “got himself suspended for three matches for head-butting an opponent” issue in the draw vs. Crystal Palace, but including the Community Shield win over Manchester City, Nunez has produced two goals and an assist in just 127 minutes of action and 44 touches. Liverpool essentially traded Sadio Mane (who left for Bayern) for Nunez, and it’s not hard to see that working out just fine over the course of a full season.
Despite a wonky start — two draws and a loss to Manchester United — Liverpool still flashed just about the highest ceiling in Europe in the 3-1 win over City and a 9-0 embarrassment of Bournemouth that got Cherries manager Scott Parker fired (and, incredibly, came without the services of either Nunez or the still-injured Diogo Jota). Once Nunez gets completely acquainted with his surroundings, he could raise that ceiling even higher.
