And then there were four.
Will it be Todd Payten and North Queensland’s home-grown heroes marching from 15th to a grand final, or Parramatta inching ever closer to ending rugby league’s longest live premiership drought?
Will it be rookie coach Jason Demetriou and the game’s most magnetic man Latrell Mitchell, or a Panthers side that has lost 10 games in three years?
Whichever way the preliminary finals are carved up, a main course storyline to salivate over awaits with this weekend’s match-ups just as enticing.
Cowboys v Eels
The recent history: A 35-4 thumping in 30-plus degrees Darwin humidity put North Queensland’s credentials on the map in May. Dylan Brown turned out at centre as Parramatta scrounged for outside backs and faded dramatically after a scoreless first 30 minutes.
The main man: Dylan Brown. More than anyone else in blue and gold, Brown’s emergence as a top-shelf playmaker – ranking inside the NRL’s top 10 for try assists (17), line-break assists (16), and line engaged runs (110) – is the difference for Parramatta this year.
Twice in the first half against Canberra he swung from the left-edge where he and Shaun Lane create havoc to draw Jack Wighton into defensive error, creating two tries down the right. A genuine game-breaker.
The stat: 9.18 kilometres. In those draining Darwin conditions that so sapped the Eels, Reuben Cotter’s GPS unit clocked him churning through the kind of numbers usually reserved for elite fullbacks. Cotter was playing prop and made 54 tackles without a single miss. When the whips get cracking, he’s the one holding them.
The breakdown: The middle men take centre stage in Townsville, not least because more often than not the big boys are where Parramatta either command or are conquered.
Reuben Cotter has been a revelation for the Cowboys.Credit:Getty
A power game amped up by offloads often overwhelms defences and Parramatta do as they please – see eight offloads inside the first 20 minutes and a 22-0 score line against Canberra on Friday night.
When an opposition pack can hold their own though, as Penrith did in week one of the finals, the Eels can be susceptible through the middle themselves. Cotter’s leg speed and Jason Taumalolo’s metre-eating will be key.
So too the respective kicking games; Chad Townsend will fancy a crack at Waqa Blake’s right wing, doubly so with frequent flyer Kyle Feldt circling.
Townsend and Tom Dearden are a more conservative pairing than counterparts Mitch Moses and Brown. Scott Drinkwater instead provides unpredictable flavour from the back.
The bench is the other wildcard. Brad Arthur has backed Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo’s big minutes for years now to effectively play a 15-man game and keep a utility and middle forward fresher than most.
Todd Payten took a similar approach in week one against Cronulla – of the 93-minute thriller, bench men Griffin Neame (seven minutes) and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (four minutes) were all-but kept on ice.
Panthers v Rabbitohs
The recent history: Penrith prevailed 26-22 a month ago, and by rights South Sydney’s errors and missed tackles shouldn’t have allowed them to get that close. But that’s the beauty of a team featuring Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell – what you know about rugby league can often go out the window.
Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker are the Rabbitohs’ trump cards.Credit:Getty
The main man: Cameron Murray. For all the brilliance of Mitchell and Walker, it’s Murray who is the Rabbitohs’ offensive heartbeat as a lynchpin lock to match Isaah Yeo’s influence.
His leg speed around the ruck keeps defenders honest – especially close to the try line – while his prowess as a ball-playing link man takes pressure off rookie No.7 Lachlan Ilias and heightens the Rabbitohs’ short-side plays.
The stat: 433. South Sydney’s average kick metres are the lowest of any team in the NRL by some margin and trails Penrith (531 per game, fifth) by almost the length of the field.
The breakdown: Penrith’s superior yardage game has them holding the aces on paper. Especially when it comes to the back three and Nathan Cleary’s kicking game.
No team starves their opposition of quality ball better than the Panthers. Any lapses by Ilias and Walker when they kick long will give Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o scope to run the Panthers into another decider.
Keeping a lid on their early carries and Yeo’s ball-playing are key to a Rabbitohs upset.
With time and space, Cleary and the backline guns he commands don’t need an invitation. Pressuring Yeo as their point-of-contact is the simplest means of limiting those slick edge shifts, though that doesn’t make it easy.
Jai Arrow’s regular hassling of Cleary and Campbell Graham’s defensive reads are especially critical for a South Sydney defence that held its goal line superbly against Cronulla.
If the Rabbitohs’ own power game can keep pace with Penrith, Mitchell’s sleight of hand, as much as his brutal running game, can create points from anything.
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