Footy is back and I think this year it’s the backrowers who will have a huge influence on either the rise or fall of almost every club.
Backrowers play such an influential role because they’re your 80-minute guys who have crucial jobs in both attack and defence.
There’s never one singular reason teams are successful because things like form, injuries and suspensions all contribute to the result.
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But I think a trend is emerging that success is becoming increasingly dependent on the quality of your backrowers.
Here I’m predicting my three teams that will rise and three that will fall or plateau in 2024 and I think it will largely be due to their numbers 11, 12 and 13.
RISE
Parramatta Eels
Parramatta had a lot of bad luck in 2023 with distractions coming left, right and centre with everything from prolonged contract negotiations to suspensions to injuries.
They lost their No. 9 (Reed Mahoney) to the Bulldogs and signed one who was out all year (Josh Hodgson). And how many times did the ball just not fall their way?
Back in 2022 when they made the grand final, their two form players were the backrowers Shaun Lane and Isaiah Papali’i.
Papali’i then left and Lane copped a series of unlucky injuries last year that restricted him to just a handful of games.
The Eels have since recruited backrower Kelma Tuilagi from Manly and J’maine Hopgood keeps going from strength to strength, while Ryan Matterson won’t start this season suspended.
I think that backrow puts them in a really good position to play consistent footy and finish well inside the top eight.
North Queensland Cowboys
The Cowboys had that incredible season in 2022 thanks to the emergence of Jeremiah Nanai, Reuben Cotter and Heilum Luki.
They all had massive performances which allowed other players like halfback Chad Townsend to do their job.
Then in 2023, Nanai’s injuries had a massive impact on his performances and Luki was coming back from an ACL.
Throw in fullback Scott Drinkwater’s suspension and it all had a major effect on the club’s results.
Cotter has now been named captain which will have a massively positive impact on their season, while Nanai and Luki are full fit and will be different players to last year.
Manly Sea Eagles
Nobody doubts the talent of Josh Schuster and if he can reach his potential in 2024 and if he can do it playing in the backrow this year then Manly can go deep.
Haumole Olakau’atu is a weapon who will play Origin one day soon, but he needs a second-row partner in crime.
Either Schuster or Ben Trbojevic needs to step up this season and if they can, with Jake Trbojevic at lock, the Sea Eagles will be the real deal.
If you look at Manly’s premiership teams of the past, they’ve always had a strong backrow.
If those boys can get going it will allow the likes of Tom Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans and recruit Luke Brooks to shine.
FALL
Brisbane Broncos
Rising forward Jordan Riki was arguably one of the form backrowers of the competition last year.
Riki emerged as a really consistent player for the Broncos and having only just turned 24 he has a huge future ahead of him.
Riki’s second-row partner last year was Kurt Capewell who is an experienced premiership winner and just so reliable on the edge.
Between Riki, Capewell and Pat Carrigan performing, it allowed those around them to also play their best footy.
When the Broncos lost Carrigan to suspension at the back end of 2022 it had a massive impact and cost them a finals spot.
Now they’ve lost Capewell (Warriors) and three other grand final players in Tom Flegler and Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins), plus Keenan Palasia (Titans).
Teams think they’re playing last year’s ladder, but they’re not, every team changes and is dealt different cards and has to evolve every year.
Considering all that, I don’t think the Broncos will be as successful this year and I’m tipping them to miss out on the top four.
And a big contributing factor to that will be the decision to let Capwell go a year early after already losing two of their forwards.
But sometimes you’ve got to take a step back before you can go forward.
Young guns like Brendan Piakua, Xavier Willison, Ben Te Kura and Deine Mariner will all get more minutes this year which will help set up Brisbane for sustained success.
It might look like a step back right now but if they can stay the course the Broncos will be in a really good position for 2025.
PLATEAU
Newcastle Knights
Ponga got all the accolades in 2023 but their most consistent performer all year was Tyson Frizell who wound the clock back.
Frizell, 32, re-emerged in the Origin arena and his second-row partner Lachlan Fitzgibbon had a breakout season.
It was no surprise all their shape and points came on the left-hand side of the field, he just had an uncanny ability to score tries and set them up.
Now that Fitzgibbon has gone to the Super League, they need to find the next emerging backrower to partner with Frizzell.
They need to work out what Dylan Lycas can do better than Fitzgibbon. But I will say their English recruit in backrower Kai Pearce-Paul looks incredible, he is massive.
This is not the same Knights team as last year but I still think they can play finals if they can find that consistency early in the season that they found in the back half of the season.
A bounce back from Daniel Saifiti after an inconsistent 2023 due to injuries will see the locals back selling out McDonald Jones Stadium once again.
Penrith Panthers
The only reason I’ve put the Panthers under plateau is because you can’t go any higher once you’ve reached the mountaintop.
But a huge amount of their success or decline will depend on whether Isaah Yeo can maintain his level in 2024. Watch that space.
But back to my earlier point – and people lose sight of this in the matrix of rugby league – every year is a very different competition.
Everyone talks about Penrith needing to replace players, but they’re not playing the 2023 Broncos or the 2023 Knights this year.
The Panthers lose players each year but so does every team, so it’s not like they’re at a massive disadvantage.
If I had to put money on a team this season it’s them. However, I’m just not quite as confident as I was last year that they will win the competition this year.
