Two-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey Corey Brown, who won on Shocking in 2009 and Rekindling in 2017, gives us his predictions and his fascinating insights into riding in the great race with this runner-by-runner guide.
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FORM GUIDE: Every horse rated and our expert’s long-shot tip to win
ULTIMATE GUIDE: Everything you need to know ahead of the Melbourne Cup
FULL FIELD& BARRIER DRAW RESULTS
Weight: 57.5kg. Barrier: (14)
Approx Pointsbet win/place odds: $11/$3.50
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace; Jockey: Mark Zahra
This stallion ran super in the Caulfield Cup and didn’t have much luck in the Cox Plate. I think he’ll appreciate the bigger track here than those two runs, and taking the blinkers off as they’re doing might help him get the distance jump from 2040m to 3200m, but I can’t see him winning. He’s drawn well, but I can’t see him winning with his big weight. He’s got the highest international rating in the race, but that’s based on some strong runs in Europe before he came here, and the other thing is he’s only won one race, from 16 career starts. Some horses can go along and become really good horses at their end of their career – they might get a win and the boosts their desire to win, or their confidence. But that happens more with geldings than stallions. Think he faces a tough ask.
55.5kg (10)
$23/$6.50
T: Edward Cummings; J: Hugh Bowman
She’s a quality mare and her run in the Caulfield Cup was fair, but I just think she’s in a bit of a funny situation. I know she can stay and she’s been set for this race, but she had a setback early on in this preparation and I feel she’s lost her way a little bit. Hughie Bowman gets the ride, and while he’s a top rider I would’ve loved to see her regular jockey Josh Parr kept on her, just for that continuity, because I know Josh knows the horse really well. She’s not in her career-best form but she’s without a doubt a top class mare, and capable of winning a race like this. It wouldn’t surprise me to see her bounce back, but she would need to do it.
I wish I win! noses the Golden Eagle! | 00:45
55.5kg (24)
$23/$6.50
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott; Jockey: Tim Clark
This bloke ran super in the Caulfield Cup when third, and is going to love the soft track on Tuesday. He’s going really well, will be up on pace and will stay. Gai and Adrian’s horses are always trained to be very tough. He’s seven, so this is probably his last chance because he’s not going to be better at eight, but he’s a good, on-speed horses, and he has one of the best front-running riders in Australia on board in Tim Clark. That’s a hard skill to master – being able to be in front and get the tempo just right so your horse has enough in the tank at the end, but noone does it better than TC. He’s got a wide gate but has lots of time to work to the lead up the straight. You might think it’s harder to lead at Flemington than elsewhere because of its long straight, but that’s not necessarily the case. There’s big fields in the Melbourne Cup, so there’s usually lots of pressure on, which creates a fast tempo, but we have seen horses lead all the way – including only two years ago with Twilight Payment. I think he’s got a good chance.
55.5kg (11)
$11/$3.50
T: David Payne; J: Jason Collett
I think she’s got a great chance. She’s peaking at the right time, hit the line beautifully in the Caulfield Cup, she’s raced great all prep, and thought she hasn’t won past 2400m, I think she’ll love the 3200m. Last prep, when Jason was riding her, she looked more of a middle distance horse, but this time she’s been set for this race, and just looking at how she’s going about it in her races – settling really nicely, and building up and displaying good acceleration in the straight like she did in the Caulfield Cup, she looks really good. I’ve never ridden her, obviously, and we don’t have many 3200m races in this country to test whether horses will get the trip. But watching her races, and watching the replays, her whole racing style and her mannerisms give me every indication she’ll stay all day. Drawn a perfect gate and Jason’s a very capable rider.
55.5kg (7)
$51/$10
T: Annabel Neasham; J: Tommy Berry
This bloke’s form is hard to fault – very good run in the Caulfield Cup – and he’s got a great trainer in Annabel Neasham, but I just think this race might be a bit too far for him. They’ve made a gear change – putting a cross-over nose band on. That helps keep their mouths shut while they’re racing and so it helps them to settle better. So that’s an indication he’s suspect at the trip: they’re trying to give him every help they can to see out the 3200m. He’s drawn well at least, so Tommy should get him a good spot, but the way he races – really aggressively and too strongly for his own good – means I just can’t see him getting the two miles. Horses like this in a Melbourne Cup, they need a genuine, strong tempo, or they’ll be doing too much work trying to go faster by the time the pressure comes on. In Melbourne Cups, one crucial part – there are many – is the bit between the 800m and the 600m mark. That’s when the pressure comes on, and you’ll know as a jockey very quickly whether you’re a chance of not. That’s where horses will show you there’s not a lot of petrol in the tank. And I think this horse will be found out.
55.5kg (18)
$11/$3.50
T: Simon and Ed Crisford; J: William Buick
This guy looks a solid international runner, but he’s a bit hard to line up. In his last four runs he’s been in very small fields. He won two starts back, but in a three-horse race. In fields that small, it’s often not a true staying test, and it’s more of a mind game when you’re a jockey. There’s no tactics – you just follow each other, get out of the road, and the best horse wins. So, in a 24-horse field all of a sudden – and gate 18 is very tricky – he might now know what’s hit him. But there is one big plus: William Buick has come out for the ride from England. I know William very well, and for him to come here it means he thinks it’s going to be a good chance. You can’t say never with the Europeans, because they are true stayers, but I wouldn’t be prepared to take the punt on how his form in small fields back home will measure up in a race like this.
55kg (17)
$51/$12
T: Ben and JD Hayes; J: Ben Melham
He’s another one from overseas who won in small field two starts back in the Curragh Cup. Watching his replays from Ireland, he does look like a bit of a plodder, to be fair. You hope the Hayes brothers have maybe trained a bit of speed into his legs, but he’s not for me. Wide barrier doesn’t help either.
55kg (9)
$3.60/$1.80
T: James Ferguson; J: Kerrin McEvoy
This one’s the pick of the internationals without a doubt. His formlines are strong, and he looks like a strong stayer, and he’s got Kerrin McEvoy aboard who’s one of Australia’s best when it comes to this race, and staying races, or any race really. The horse hasn’t been tested past a win over 2600m, but I’ve seen his replays and I liked what I saw. These European stayers, they jump out and they switch off and relax, especially with a good tempo, so I don’t think there’s any doubt about the 3200m, the way he’s been finishing his races. I’ve had a fair bit to do with his young trainer James Ferguson. He was Godolphin’s travelling foreman when I won the Sydney Cup for them a few years back with Polarisation, that year they called it a no-race and we had to run it again a week later. (He was so good he won it twice!) But anyway, James knows what he’s doing. The horse hasn’t got any form – officially on soft or heavy tracks – but in Europe, their good tracks are basically what we’d call a soft 7. They’re a lot more spongy, and I think horses like this bloke would hate to get here and run on a good 3. He’s drawn a good barrier, stays all day, and he’s a deserved favourite.
54kg (2)
$34/$8
T: Joe Pride; J: Sam Clipperton
I really like this horse – he’s a dead-set warrior, really tradesmanlike. And I’d love to see him win for Joe Pride and Sam Clipperton, having his first ride in a Cup. He’s a good stayer, and ran a great race in Sydney on Saturday, finishing on well from the back of the field. One thing they have in their arsenal is the wet track. This horse loves it well, so the conditions will really suit him. It’s his first go the Melbourne way of going – anti-clockwise – but while I’d be worried if this was Caulfield, which can be a bit trick, at Flemington, a far bigger track with roomier turns, it’s no problem. Drawn well, and I give him a chance.
54kg (4)
$19/$5.50
T: Danny O’Brien; J: Blake Shinn
The big thing in his favour is pretty obvious: he’s won this race before, so you know he’ll get the trip. But there’s just something about this horse. After his 2019 win, he lost his way – big time, and for a couple of years. But now it looks like he’s back, and he’s coming into form. I don’t know why he went off. Horses can lose form. It might have been some small problem with his body that they’ve now been able to fix, but it wouldn’t surprise me now to see him run a really big race. He was warming up at the end of the Caulfield Cup, and I thought his was the most eye-catching run in that race. He’s got Blake Shinn aboard. Blake knows how to win this race. He beat me by a millimetre in 2008 when he was on Viewed and I was on Bauer. (That great quirk of history when my horse actually set the fastest time but still lost! Their speed-tracking microchip is in their saddle cloth. My saddle cloth was ahead of Blake’s on the line, but his horse’s neck was longer than my horse’s! It still hurts to this day, damn him!) But he’s a great jockey, has a super barrier, he’ll be able to get forward like when he won it before, and a win wouldn’t surprise.
Loft ruled out of the Melbourne Cup | 00:23
54kg (21)
$34/$8.50
T: Danny O’Brien; J: Damian Lane
He got a big reputation as a younger horse, but he’s only had a few runs all year. He was pretty plain in the Cox Plate, over a far shorter 2040m. This looks a hard task for him: 3200m, wet track, barrier 21, there’s no positives leaning his way.
53.5kg (15)
$11/$3
T: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott; J: Craig Williams
Another horse from England who’s been running small fields. I don’t think he’s a true two-miler. The barrier’s OK, and Craig Williams is a great jockey, but the main thing is, he won in a four-horse field a couple of starts back, his main form reference for this. That’s all well and good, but the best horse will usually win those races. Put him in a field of 24, where there’ll be a lot of other horses and other factors just meaning he can’t have things his own way, and he could find it tough.
53kg (23)
$61/$16
T: Robert Hickmott; J: John Allen
He’s an English Derby winner over 2400m. That’s a great race, and horses who win that will often get 3200m. But his form out here hasn’t been fantastic. He did improve on Saturday to lead and hang on for second in the Archer Stakes over 2500m. He’ll probably be wanting to go forward again, but the big problem is he’s got gate 23. If you draw and inside gate you can have the pleasure of just flopping out and rolling across to the fence. In a Melbourne Cup, when you’re out wide, when you’re trying to get across there’s a lot of horses inside you who won’t make that easy for you. They’ll kick up, and keep you wide, and in the end you’ve got to do all this work sometimes to find the fence. I think a tough horse like Knights Order might be able to do that, but I don’t think this bloke has what it takes to do it.
53kg (13)
$51/$12
T: Phillip Stokes; J: Daniel Moor
Good luck to Daniel Moor. Up until 12 months ago, he didn’t have a Group 1, and then he went bang and won a few of them. I’ve always liked him as a rider and he’s a good guy. But this is not the right race for this horse. Yes he won the 3200m Adelaide Cup and was third int he Sydney Cup over the same trip last autumn, but those races – whilst they’re the same distance – they’re way below the Melbourne Cup in terms of what a horse needs. Plus his spring form hasn’t been great. I can’t see him in the finish.
53kg (1)
$67/$19
T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; J: Harry Coffey
Great to see Harry Coffey getting a ride in the Cup. He’s a great young fella who’s had to overcome some adversity, so good luck to him. However, I can’t see this horse bothering the scorers. He ran sixth in the race last year, which was a great effort. But this time around his form hasn’t been up to his form of last spring. He ran sixth in the Moonee Valley Cup last start, beaten 12 lengths. The Moonee Valley Cup for me is not a bad guide for this race, so finishing 12 lengths back in that tells me he’s not going well enough to win this.
52.5kg (19)
$81/$19
T: Bjorn Baker; J: Rachel King
I’d love for Rachel King and Bjorn Baker to have some success in this race. But, this horse has been going ok, it’s been in much weaker races. Wide gate, doesn’t help, and I can’t see him finishing in the top 10.
51.5kg (3)
$26/$7.50
T: Mike Moroney; J: Patrick Moloney
This horse won the Geelong Cup last start, and I just love that race as a guide for this one. It’s always thrown up a good chance for this race. It’s had winners go on and win the Melbourne Cup like Media Puzzle (2002), Americain (2010), and Dunaden (2011), while Bauer won it in 2008 before he and I just got pipped in the big one. I just think it’s great timing before the Melbourne Cup – 13 days – and I think you can say it’s the perfect horse’s perfect Melbourne Cup prep. If their preparation is coming along well, this gives them a good run, and then time to get over it. By contrast, other horses need to run on the Saturday before the Cup, to get a good “blowout” to get everything in shape for the Tuesday. All that said, I don’t think Emissary can win. But I do think he’ll run well. Possible place chance.
51.5kg (12)
$16/$5
T: Grahame Begg; J: Michael Dee
I think this mare is a really good lightweight chance. She’s in good form, comes through a good run in the Moonee Valley Cup, she was a winner of The Bart Cummings two runs back, and Grahame Begg knows how to train staying mares, having learnt from his dad Neville, a great trainer. But one of the biggest things is, she’s got a jockey in form on board in Mickey Dee. He’s a great guy and he’s always been a good, hard-working rider, who can ride well at a light weight (like he’s got here). But up until a couple of weeks ago, he’d won four Group 1s, from more than 100 attempts. Now, he’s won the Caulfield Cup and the VRC Derby in recent days. In fact, thanks to a suspension after the Caulfield Cup, he’s won two G1s in the space of just six rides! And as a jockey, there’s nothing like hitting a purple patch. The confidence it gives you, money can’t buy. The big difference is, your decision-making all of a sudden just clicks. When you’re out of form and low on confidence, you’ll often end up making poor decisions, or over-thinking things. Often that’s because you’re so eager to get a win. You might go at the 400 metre mark because you’re that eager, whereas you should’ve waited till the 300 metre mark. When you’re riding really well, you just let it happen, and so you get on a roll. And that’s where Mickey is at the moment. He won the Derby on Saturday on a $21 shot in Manzoice, which suggests he gave it every opportunity. And so, he’s got a good barrier, a horse in form under him, and I think she’s a chance.
51.5kg (16)
$21/$6
T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; J: Jamie Kah
He’s a good lightweight chance and has Jamie Kah on his back and I know, like every Australian jockey, she’d love to win this race. He was a little disappointing when seventh in the Caulfield Cup, but, as great a rider as Jamie is, she’d be the first to admit she’d have been disappointed with her ride that day, getting squeezed up in the ruck around the turn and having to switch to the inside, which wasn’t a great place to be. She’ll be keen to make amends, she’s been in terrific form overall, and I think this horse has the potential to bounce back. She’s got gate 16. I wouldn’t be that excited about getting that gate, but I wouldn’t be disappointed either. We make so much of what number marble comes out at the Melbourne Cup barrier draw, but really, so much depends on what happens in the race, especially in the first 600 or so metres. Your chances from a wide gate can be finished in the space. But, depending on the movement of the horses inside you, the race can be handed to you on a plate as well. When I won on Shocking, from gate 21, I was the only jockey three wide. For a while it felt like that dream you have when you’re out in public and you discover you’re in the nude. But as it transpired, the pace became so slow that so many horses inside us had really rough runs. They kept getting held up, checking off heels, everyone’s yelling and screaming – I won’t say here what sort of things they’re yelling, but it’s along the lines of “What are you doing in front?!” Meanwhile I was sitting three wide, my horse was bowling along, we were having a lovely time, and by the 1600m I knew we were a great chance. So, you never know. From gate 16, I’d say Jamie will go forward, and with her light weight, she’ll have a chance I reckon.
51.5kg (22)
$81/$20
T: Simon Wilde; J: Dean Yendall
She was a promising mare last spring going into this race, where she ran ninth, but this time in she hasn’t regained that form. Had a last-start 13th in the Caulfield Cup, and I just don’t think she’s travelling well enough to figure in this.
51kg (20)
$61/$18
T: Robert Hickmott; J: Wayne Lordan
Won the Andrew Ramsden Stakes back in May to qualify for this, but he’s left that form a long way behind. Was 14th of 15 last start over 2400m, and has gate 20. Can’t see it.
50kg (8)
$41/$10
T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; J: Teo Nugent
Good to see Teo get a ride in the race. Maher-Eustace are great with all their horses, and this mare showed good form to win the Bendigo Cup last start. I’d love to see it run well, but this is different class.
Hype builds ahead of Melbourne Cup! | 01:14
50kg (6)
$41/$10
T: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; J: Craig Newitt
He’s drawn a soft gate, and again, the Maher-Eustace team know what they’re doing. He comes out of the Geelong Cup as well, but he only ran a well-beaten sixth there, so I can’t see him troubling these.
50kg (5)
$13/$4
T: Anthony and Sam Freedman; J: Damien Thornton
There’s something about this horse. I think it’s a big chance. She’s going well, she stays all day, and the father-and-son team are smart trainers. Interesting that they’ve sent his mare, a Melbourne horse, to Sydney for all three starts this prep. Possibly they were looking for wet tracks, but in any case, they’ve been really good at targeting races to win, and this horse is in with a light weight, will see the trip out, and has a great barrier. The wet track won’t hurt her at all, and a light weight in the wet is always a good thing. Damien Thornton should be able to find a good spot from that barrier, and I think she’s a big chance.
TIPS:
1. MONTEFILIA
2. Deauville Legend
3. Realm Of Flowers
4. Vow And Declare
