The 2023 Melbourne Cup is only a few days away, and there have been a number of storylines in the lead-up to the race that stops a nation.
There’s a huge rap around an international raider who is unseen in Australia, but is being backed as if unbeatable.
Meanwhile, has jockey Mark Zahra made the right decision regarding his Cup ride?
Read on for our Melbourne Cup talking points!
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INTERNATIONAL RAIDER WHO WILL ‘PROBABLY WIN WELL’
His name is Vauban and if you have been following social media this week, you’d be forgiven for thinking he’d already won the race.
Vauban caught the eye on Tuesday morning when he scorched the turf in a trackwork gallop at Flemington alongside stablemate Absurde, who will also contest the ‘race that stops a nation’.
The impressive piece of work left many stunned, including rival trainer Mick Price who quipped that he “felt tired looking at it”.
“There will be no horse that will do more work and he had a bit of a sweat coming back into the mounting yard, as you would, it was like SAS out there,” Price said.
The UK gelding is trained by Willie Mullens, who knows a thing or two about preparing stayers.
Mullens hasn’t trained a Melbourne Cup winner before, but he has collected second, third and fourth before. Could Vauban be the horse to give Mullens that elusive win in our great race?
It’s worth noting that there have been big raps in the past on international horses contesting the Melbourne Cup without a prior run in Australia, most recently Deauville Legend last year.
Many good judges believed Deauville Legend’s superior European form and his similar profile to a former Melbourne Cup winner in Cross Counter would see him prove far too good and he wound up starting the $4.40 favourite, which is quite short in a 22-horse field.
While he ran well to finish fourth, he was five lengths off the winner Gold Trip.
It’s easy to draw parallels between Vauban and Deauville Legend and become sceptical about the hype around this year’s favourite.
However respected racing journalist Lee Mottershead says Vauban is unlike any other horse that has come down under to contest the Melbourne Cup
“In the years I‘ve been coming out here, I can’t recall a European horse going into a Melbourne Cup with what looks to me as obvious a chance of winning, and probably winning well,” Mottershead told RSN.
“There’s tremendous stable confidence behind him and what’s really interesting is how long the plan has been…. He (Mullens) was telling us in March 2022 that the plan for Vauban was the 2023 Melbourne Cup.”
Punters have certainly taken notice of not only Vauban’s track gallop, but the commentary around the gelding as in the past week, he’s been backed into $3.50 from $4.50 – a huge move for a Melbourne Cup market.
JOCKEY SPURNS DEFENDING CHAMP
One of the big storylines in the lead up to the Melbourne Cup was the somewhat controversial decision from jockey Mark Zahra to partner Without a Fight in Tuesday’s race instead of last year’s winner Gold Trip.
Zahra rode Gold Trip to victory in the 2022 edition, and has been on the horse in five of his subsequent starts this year, including for the electric Group 1 Turnbull win.
Even after winning on Without a Fight in the Caulfield Cup, it appeared Zahra would still ride the reigning champ in the Melbourne Cup, until the decision was announced a few hours after Gold Trip’s fifth in the Cox Plate last Saturday.
Not long after the news was announced, a humorous post from Ciaron Maher’s X account poked some lighthearted fun towards Zahra’s decision.
Not long after that post, Maher revealed champion jockey James McDonald will be the new rider of Gold Trip for the Melbourne Cup.
Zahra said it was a touch decision, admitting the weather forecast for Melbourne and the likelihood of a dry track was the significant factor.
“I would have said the decision was 60/40 in Without A Fight‘s favour,” Zahra told RSN.
“Last year, I thought Gold Trip, all his runs were on soft tracks and he had a soft run in a Caulfield Cup and he ran second.
“He didn‘t get out in a Cox Plate on a soft track and then went to the Melbourne Cup.
“I reckon it‘s a different kettle of fish this year. He’s had two hard runs on firm tracks, he’ll get a firm track again, I believe anyway, on Cup Day and I think Without A Fight is a better ride.
“It was a hard (decision) because I‘m very good friends with a couple of owners in the horse (Gold Trip) so I had to tell them first – and I was having dinner with Ciaron.
“They wanted to kill me and my mum, she loves Gold Trip, so she was flat as well.
“It was an extremely tough choice. There wasn‘t a great deal between them.”
CAN RACING’S FIRST LADY WIN JUST HER SECOND MELBOURNE CUP?
For all her success in the sport, it’s probably surprising to many, especially the casual observer, that Gai Waterhouse has only won the one Melbourne Cup.
That was 10 years ago, when talented galloper Fiorente, ridden by a fellow Hall of Fame member in Damien Oliver,
Waterhouse has trained 158 Group 1 winners and has achieved all that you can in her profession, however she’d no doubt like to add another Melbourne Cup to the mantelpiece.
That would bring her to two which was the same amount her father and champion trainer Tommy Smith prepared to win the great race.
Waterhouse and co-trainer Adrian Bott will saddle up two runners next Tuesday, however if the market is anything to go by, it might not be this year that the stable take home the chocolates.
However, despite the big odds about Military Mission ($34) and Serpentine ($41), the typically confident Gai declared she would be “amazed” if one of them “doesn’t run top six”.
“He’s been a model of consistency Military Mission, he’s got a luxury weight, what’s he done wrong?” Waterhouse said.
“I think he can slip under the radar, I’d be amazed if he doesn’t run top six, he’s just going too well, he’s too happy with himself.”
In Military Mission’s favour is the fact he is a last start winner of the Herbert Power Stakes – a key lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup.
THE FIGHT FOR THE FINAL SPOT
23 runners in the Melbourne Cup appear to be locked in, with just the 24th and final spot still to be determined.
For those horses on the outside looking in, there is one more ballot exemption race to be run which acts as a final throw of the stumps. That is the Lexus Archer Stakes (previously known as the Hotham Handicap), which will be run at 1pm AEDT.
Under the provision that the horse is paid up to this point hence still in the order of entry, the winner of this Saturday’s Lexus Archer Stakes will be ensured of a start in the great race.
Ladies Man (25th), Athabascan (26th), United Nations (27th) and Kalapour (28th) and Mostly Cloudy (29th) are all horses outside the top 24 that will be aiming to nab the final spot with victory in the Archer.
If one of those five horses win on Saturday, it will push Bendigo Cup winner Interpretation down to 25th and out of the race, granted there are no other withdrawals of horses above 24th between now at Saturday afternoon.
However, Interpretation will still make the field if one of Gan Teorainn or Speak win the Archer as those two horses aren’t nominated for the Cup.
With only seven horses to run, this year’s Archer is a very moderate affair, and that’s probably putting it nicely.
Sky Racing’s Anthony Manton says he’d be “shocked” if the winner of the Melbourne Cup comes from the Archer field.
“The Archer, times have changed and it’s not the race it once was when I was growing up,” he said.
The market agrees with Manton, with Ladies Man and Athabascan rated $61 chances for the Melbourne Cup with Sportsbet.
