British stayer Deauville Legend heads into Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup as strong favourite at Australia’s “race that stops a nation”, but rain and even hail could put a dampener on proceedings.
Held on the first Tuesday of November since 1876, the punishing 3,200 metre (two-mile) handicap was limited to 10,000 fans last year because of Covid-19, but 100,000 are expected at Flemington on Tuesday for a traditional boozy day out.
They could face a soggy time with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting a 90 percent chance of showers, even a thunderstorm and hail, leading to a soft and possibly heavy track.
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Regarded as the ultimate test of stamina and staying power, the Melbourne Cup has $8 million at stake with the winner of the now 22-strong field banking $4.4 million.
Deauville Legend is favourite to cross the line first, firming in the betting after second-favourite Loft was withdrawn on Friday, before Lunar Flare failed a Tuesday morning inspection.
Interpretation was also inspected, but was deemed suitable to race.
Caulfield Cup winner Durston also pulled out after failing a pre-race scan, while Point Nepean was scratched Monday.
Expert tips for the 2022 Melbourne Cup | 03:42
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Deauville Legend has the added bonus of having three-time Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy (Brew in 2000, Almandin in 2016, and Cross Counter in 2018) in the saddle of the four-year-old gelding.
He drew perfectly in barrier nine as McEvoy attempts to equal Bobbie Lewis and Harry White’s record of four Melbourne Cup wins and hand Hong Kong-based owner Bon Ho a first victory.
The weather could be a factor meaning horses with form on soft and heavy ground, including Gold Trip, Stockman, Montefilia and Arapaho, come into the equation.
Expert tips for the 2022 Melbourne Cup | 03:42
Five-year-old Australian mare Montefilia is currently co-second favourite alongside Realm Of Flowers and Without A Fight.
Four-time Group One winner Montefilia is making a first attempt at 3,200m, but females don’t boast a great Cup strike rate — 38 have run since 2005 and last year’s winner, Verry Elleegant, was the only one to have finished in the top three.
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The winningest owner in Melbourne Cup history Lloyd Williams has predicted Deauville Legend to win Race 7 at Flemington on Tuesday “or have your pick” in a race he believes is lacking in quality.
“It’s an extremely weak race this race when you look at the top,” Williams said on RadioTAB.
“I think that Gold Trip is a good horse, but he’s won one race in his life and he’s the topweight.
“When Greg (Carpenter) did this, he didn’t have a natural topweight.”
Weather forecast for the Melbourne Cup | 01:28
Williams, like many, sees Deauville Legend as the obvious pick if you’re picking just one.
“I don’t see the weight’s going to stop him,” he said. “The only thing that possibly might stop him is does he run two miles? I’m not sure if he’ll run two miles, but James (Ferguson) I think is pretty confident he will.
“He’s a proper horse. The form at Goodwood when he ran second was pretty good.
“The difference is, people are looking at the fact Rekindling and Charlie’s (Appelby) horse (Cross Counter) being down in the weights, but this is a different weighted race. A much weaker race.”
“If you don’t want to back James’ horse, it’s a very open race.
“It’s pretty obvious to me that he’s entitled to be favourite.
“You can have a pick at another 10 or 11 horses if you leave the favourite out.”
WHO IS IN THE FIELD?
1. GOLD TRIP (FR) Jockey: Mark Zahra – 57.5kg
2. DUAIS Hugh Bowman – 55.5kg
3. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE) Tim Clark – 55.5kg
4. MONTEFILIA Jason Collett – 55.5kg
5. NUMERIAN (IRE) Tommy Berry – 55.5kg
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE) William Buick – 55.5kg
7. CAMORRA (IRE) Ben Melham – 55kg
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (IRE) Kerrin McEvoy – 55kg
9. STOCKMAN (NZ) Sam Clipperton – 54kg
10. VOW AND DECLARE Blake Shinn – 54kg
11. YOUNG WERTHER (NZ) Damian Lane – 54kg
12. HOO YA MA (GB) Craig Williams – 53.5kg
13. SERPENTINE (IRE) John Allen – 53.5kg
14. DAQUIANSWEET JUNIOR (NZ) Daniel Moor – 53kg
15. GRAND PROMENADE (GB) Harry Coffey – 53kg
16. ARAPAHO (FR) Rachel King – 52.5kg
17. EMISSARY (GB) Patrick Moloney – 51.5kg
18. LUNAR FLARE Michael Dee – 51.5kg — SCRATCHED
19. SMOKIN’ ROMAN (NZ) Jamie Kah – 51.5kg
20. TRALEE ROSE (NZ) Dean Yendall – 51.5kg
21. POINT NEPEAN (IRE) Wayne Lordan – 51kg — SCRATCHED
22. HIGH EMOCEAN (NZ) Teo Nugent – 50kg
23. INTERPRETATION (IRE) Craig Newitt – 50kg
24. REALM OF FLOWERS Damien Thornton – 50kg
RACE SCHEDULE (All times AEDT)
Race 1 – 10:45AM — Darley Maribyrnong Plate
Race 2 – 11:20AM — The Macca’s Run
Race 3 – 12:00PM — Resimax Group Subzero Handicap
Race 4 – 12:40PM — TAB Trophy
Race 5 – 1:20PM — The Schweppervescence Plate
Race 6 – 1:55PM — Furphy Plate
Race 7 – 3:00PM — Lexus Melbourne Cup
Race 8 – 3:50PM — In Memory of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II
Race 9 – 4:35PM — The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
Race 10 – 5:15PM — MSS Security Sprint
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