Manchester United will head into the summer off the back of their worst league campaign in more than three decades — since 1989-90. Minority owner Jim Ratcliffe has made a lot of noise with his hiring of a new chief executive (Omar Berrada) and technical director (Jason Wilcox), cuts to what he considers a “bloated” non-playing staff and unveiled what a proposed new stadium would look like, but he has hardly won hearts and minds among the fans. (The even more unpopular Glazer family is still lurking in the background as majority owners.)
Replacing Erik ten Hag with Ruben Amorim in November has at least given supporters the sense that there is a plan, though results have largely been disappointing. Amorim’s tactical system, the 3-4-2-1, is proving to be a slow burn, partly because most of the squad is unsuited to it, and because it’s a major departure from Ten Hag’s style (or, really, that of almost any other manager.)
Still, it feels as if there’s a plan. It might not be the right plan, but the sense of drift has somewhat gone away, and Ratcliffe isn’t a Glazer, which means most United fans are giving him the benefit of the doubt — for now, anyway.
So much depends on whether United can win the Europa League. They’re through to the semifinals, with the first leg at Athletic Club on Thursday. Winning the Europa League would mean qualifying for the Champions League, and that, in turn, could mean anywhere from £60 million to £120m in additional revenue. Not all of that would go straight into the transfer kitty, of course. That many United players have contracts with automatic 25% pay cuts if they fail to qualify for the Champions League would help if they fail, but being in the Champions League would be a tremendous boost in terms of prize money, signing more lucrative sponsorships and attracting more top players to Old Trafford.
We expect the club to have budgeted around £80m in net spend, which could grow to £130m or more if United qualify for the Champions League. They will likely save between £12m and £15m in the wages of players leaving the club, and the good news is there are very few upcoming extensions to worry about (possibly a reflection of how much United have underachieved.)
Editor’s note: This is the second in this year’s series, Keep or Dump, over the coming weeks on which players to keep, extend and move on from for all the top clubs in the Premier League and Europe. Find the article on Arsenal right here.
Ogden: He’s showing himself to be the most convincing center-forward on United’s books right now, so he’s worth his new contract for that alone.
Verdict: Keep
Victor Lindelöf (30, 2025)
Ogden: It’s amazing he survived this long at Manchester United. Never good enough — too slow, can’t head the ball, dreadful concentration and defensive instincts, but he has had eight years on the payroll.
Verdict: Release as free agent
Ayden Heaven (18, 2029, with club option for additional year)
Verdict: Keep
Jonny Evans (37, 2025)
Verdict: Release
Patrick Dorgu (20, 2030, with club option for additional year)
Marcotti: He’s extremely fast and extremely raw. Let’s see how he can grow under Amorim.
Ogden: There’s a long list of guys who stayed at United a long time and didn’t get any better.
Verdict: Keep
Luke Shaw (29, 2027)
Ogden: United have accepted they will never get 40 games a season out of him, but 10 would be nice. No way they can find a club to take him with such a poor fitness record.
Verdict: Keep
Verdict: Split between move on, and keep but look to loan out
Jadon Sancho (25, 2026, with club option for additional year, on loan at Chelsea)
Marcotti: Chelsea have an obligation to make the loan permanent if they finish in the top 14, which they will. Otherwise there’s a clause of £5m to send him back. I think Chelsea will want to keep him — he’s got a different profile, and frankly better than their other wingers — but it’s just a question of what personal terms they can agree to.
Ogden: The fee Chelsea would pay is reportedly between £20m and £25m, but I think they will haggle to pay a little less. Either way, you still let him go.
Verdict: Move on
Overall verdict
The good news is that Man United are in a position where they can spend a lot of money this summer, despite Ratcliffe’s doom-and-gloom pronouncements about cost cutting. Moving Garnacho, Sancho and Bayindir should be relatively straightforward and should net them in the £70m-90m range — that number goes up further if you can shift one or more of Casemiro, Rashford, Zirkzee, Højlund or Antony, but as we said, none of them will be easy to transfer on a permanent basis.
And, of course, if they win the Europa League, you can probably add another £40m-60m to the transfer budget via future Champions League revenue. Add it to our original net spend estimate of £80m-100m and — who knows? — they could theoretically have as much as £300m to spend.
Their biggest priority has to be up front. Man United are one of many clubs linked to Liam Delap of Ipswich Town, and with his £30m release clause, that would obviously make sense. But we think they probably need to get two central strikers — not just one, since Højlund will likely leave, whether on a permanent transfer or, more likely, on loan. We think you need to be open to the possibilities: maybe it’s a top striker and an understudy, or maybe it’s two guys who can compete. Either way, there has to be a significant upgrade.
Assuming Fernandes and Amad are the starters in the No. 10 position, Gab thinks they could use another option off the bench beyond Zirkzee and Mount if they qualify for the Champions League.
The other major area in need of upgrade is central midfield. You want a player with legs, power and quality — ideally one with experience playing in a two, who can make Ugarte and/or Mainoo better. We’d be comfortable spending at least £50m in that role. And again, if United do get European football next season, they’ll need an understudy as well, beyond Collyer.
The wing-back options are nothing to get excited about, but you have plenty of competent cover and alternatives in Dalot, Mazraoui, Dorgu and Amass (Shaw too, when fit). That’s not a priority. We think they’re OK at center-back, too, though that will depend on Martinez’s fitness. Yoro, De Ligt and Martinez — with Maguire and Heaven as backups, and possibly Mazaroui too — might not be an elite unit, but it’s one that can grow together. If there’s a promising youngster or low-cost veteran with experience in this system who can be signed for the right price, maybe you add somebody for depth.
That leaves goalkeeper. We disagree on moving on from Onana, but we’d like to see United upgrade on Bayindir and replace Heaton, which you can do with an in-house youngster or a veteran free agent who can be acquired at low cost. Mark and Gab disagree on whether you spend significant money to replace Onana (and move him to No. 2, at least for now) or whether you bring in a younger keeper who can challenge him down the road. This will depend on how much of the budget is spent in central midfield and up front.
You’re not going to revolutionize a team in a single window, but United are in a strong position to make significant, and positive, changes this summer.
