Locks, bolters and Roos gamble Arnold has to take: World Cup selection state of play

Locks, bolters and Roos gamble Arnold has to take: World Cup selection state of play

26 Australian players will travel to Qatar for the World Cup in November – and competition for places on the plane hit overdrive with back-to-back wins over New Zealand in the space of four days.

Coach Graham Arnold fielded a full-strength side on Thursday in Brisbane, but a scrappy performance resulted in just a 1-0 win. He changed the entire starting XI – and handed out six debuts, including five off the bench, in Sunday’s 2-0 win.

The first half of that match was again underwhelming, but the second half was much-improved, with the Socceroos playing with courage and creativity going forward while remaining impenetrable at the back.

Many members of the Sunday squad, which Arnold labelled his ‘Plan C’ for Qatar, put their hands up for a spot on the final roster for the World Cup.

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“I’m going to reach out to Panadol as my new sponsor because I’m going to have quite a number of headaches to fit into a 26-man squad,” Arnold joked, before adding that he had previously pencilled in ‘15 or 16’ players for a place in Qatar.

“But today is not the last day for the players to get chosen.

“The boys have to go back to their clubs. They’ve got seven weeks.

“They’ve got to play and they’ve got to be fit. They’ve got to be probably the fittest they’ve ever been.”

With just 58 days until the Socceroos’ opening World Cup match against reigning champions France, here’s how the race for the 26 spots stand.

We’ve categorised them in five groups as such: players are either locks for Qatar, probable, at risk of missing out, long shots, or bolters.

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KEEPERS

Mat Ryan

The captain and Mr. Reliable between the sticks, Ryan is the clear No. 1 pick for the No. 1 jersey. His decision to leave Spain for FC Copenhagen in search of game-time ensured he’ll be on the plane.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Mitch Langerak

Arguably the most consistent Australian performer at club level since Russia 2018 World Cup, Langerak retired from international football due to Japan’s coronavirus restrictions. Arnold convinced him to end that retirement this week, but surprisingly didn’t give him a chance to prove his stuff on the park. With three keepers set to be chosen, there’s no doubt Langerak is among the best three Aussie keepers – and is in very good form at Nagoya Grampus.

SELECTION STATUS: PROBABLE

Andrew Redmayne

The ‘Grey Wiggle’ etched himself into Socceroos folklore with his antics in the penalty shootout win over Peru that sent Australia to a fifth-straight World Cup. The Socceroos will only experience another shootout if they reach the knockout stages, but Redmayne is a dependable back-up and should win a place.

SELECTION STATUS: AT RISK

Danny Vukovic

37-year-old Vukovic was a member of the 2018 FIFA World Cup and 2019 AFC Asian Cup squads, and has made four Australian appearances, with his most recent coming last year. He returned to the Central Coast Mariners this year in a bid to earn a place on the World Cup roster. But Langerak’s return to the fold likely pushes him out of the top 26.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Mark Birighitti

Another on the fringes, Birighitti has been in lightning form for the last couple of seasons down under, earning a big move to Scotland. But his Dundee United side enjoyed a horrible start to the season, with Birighitti dropped (and the manager axed) after a couple of big defeats. A hamstring injury a fortnight ago should keep him sidelined for a month or more – and will ruin any chance of breaking into the team.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

CENTRE-BACKS

Trent Sainsbury

After missing the 2014 World Cup, Sainsbury starred in the victorious 2015 Asian Cup campaign before playing in all three World cup matches in 2018. With 61 caps under his belt and in decent form after moving to Qatar to play for Al-Wakrah, he’ll be on the plane – but will he start?

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Harry Souttar

One of the rising stars of Australian football, the 23-year-old man mountain is a huge threat on set pieces (with six goals in 10 Socceroos appearances) which could prove vital against tough opponents in Qatar. He’s also immensely capable at the back, and was a lock to start in Qatar until a devastating ACL in November. He should return in time for the World Cup, but the only question will be whether he gets enough minutes for his club to build form and match fitness.

SELECTION STATUS: AT RISK

Kye Rowles

A gifted youngster and rare left-footed central defender, Rowles burst on the Socceroos scene and, at just 24, looks a long-term lock. But a fractured metatarsal in late August was a big setback after a move to Scotland to play for Hearts. He should return to play three or four games before the World Cup, which should be enough to earn him a spot.

SELECTION STATUS: PROBABLE

Milos Degenek

Another veteran who has been in the Socceroos family for many years, Degenek perhaps slipped down the pecking order in recent years with the arrival of Harry Souttar then Kye Rowles. But his long partnership with Sainsbury could end up being the starting combination come the World Cup, if Arnold views Rowles and Souttar as being too risky or unprepared given their recent injuries.

SELECTION STATUS: AT RISK

Bailey Wright

With Trent Sainsbury injured, Wright stepped up alongside Kye Rowles and delivered a sensational performance against Peru to guide the Roos to Qatar. He’s often been the odd man out in recent years behind Sainsbury and Degenek, and the arrival of young guns like Rowles, Souttar and Deng might have seen him leapfrogged in the pecking order.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Thomas Deng

A move to Japan in recent years has paid off, with the 25-year-old coming on in leaps and bounds – and on Sunday earning just his second Socceroos cap, and first since his 2018 debut.

A standout of the Olympics campaign last season, Deng’s composure and physicality in defence makes him an attractive prospect compared to the sometimes error-prone combination of Sainsbury and Degenek. But if those two veterans are chosen alongside the young guns in Rowles and Souttar, Deng could be an unlucky absentee.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Harrison Delbridge

Delbridge ploughed an unusual path to his Socceroos debut on Sunday, progressing through the US college system before playing in the country’s second tier. After a stint down under, he joined Korean side Incheon United last season, and rocketed into World Cup contention based on his outstanding performances. He was solid alongside Deng on Sunday, and made himself a genuine back-up option for Qatar.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

FULL BACKS

We would expect Arnold to select two right-backs and two left-backs. Here are the contenders!

Nathaniel Atkinson

The right-back has impressed in Scotland after a recent move to Hearts, but is struggling to nail down a starting berth. The 23-year-old has been locked in a genuine battle for the starting spot with Fran Karacic for months, and that will continue in Qatar if he can earn more minutes in club-land.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Fran Karacic

Based in Italy, Karacic has enjoyed a better start to the season, with two assists in five Serie B games. The fact he was chosen to start in Thursday’s match, where Arnold played a stronger side, probably hints he is currently above his rival in the pecking order. He is probably stronger defensively than Atkinson, who arguably shades him going forward.

SELECTION STATUS: PROBABLE

Ryan Strain

Handed his Socceroos debut on Sunday, Strain has been rewarded for a long and productive career that has now seen him move to St Mirren in Scotland. While he impressed on his debut, he’s got work to do to overhaul Atkinson and Karacic in the pecking order – but his ability to play as a winger could prove an ace up his sleeve.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Rhyan Grant

Rhyan Grant has been a Socceroos mainstay for years, but the Sydney FC defender appears to be slipping out of favour in recent months. At 31, the Canowindra kid remains a fan favourite, but needs a superb start to the A-League season if he is to burst back into the side.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Aziz Behich

The incumbent at left-back, the 31-year-old has plenty of experience playing in different leagues around the world – and a half-century of caps for the Socceroos over a decade. Started on Thursday, his lock on the position is under significant threat … but he’ll be in Qatar regardless.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Joel King

The fight for the left-back spot is red-hot. King might be leading the contenders for Behich, based on his selection on Sunday and solid performance in that match. Now based in Denmark, the 21-year-old is likely to be around the Socceroos squad for a decade – but Arnold might just prefer experience over his youthful experience in his starting side.

SELECTION STATUS: PROBABLE

Callum Elder

Playing in the intense and physical Championship – England’s second tier – Elder is receiving arguably the best preparation for a brutal World Cup draw. At 27, he’s got far more experience than King, but has made just the single Socceroos appearance so far.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Jason Davidson

A sensational A-League campaign earned him a Socceroos cap in June, his first appearance since all the way back in 2015. He’s in fine form for KAS Eupen in Belgium’s top flight, where he’s receiving plenty of game time – giving the 31-year-old an outside shot at returning to the World Cup after playing in all three games in 2014.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Brad Smith

Already halfway through an MLS season in the US, the former Liverpool product has racked up over 20 caps in his eight years in the Socceroos side. But an ACL injury in July will unfortunately rule him out World Cup contention.

Joel King was very solid defensively on Sunday, and might end up the youngest player in the squad.Source: AFP

MIDFIELDERS

Arguably the area where Australia is most blessed with talent, there are a host of gifted players both old and young. Here are the contenders.

Aaron Mooy

He’s been there, done that, and got the postcard to prove it. Mooy has 53 caps for the Roos, and is all-but-certain to add to those at the World Cup, so long as he is fit and healthy. Fingers crossed.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Ajdin Hrustic

Probably Australia’s best player over the course of the World Cup qualifying campaign, Hrustic faced a tricky preparation to Qatar after being frozen out of his German club Eintracht Frankfurt. Luckily, he sealed a late move to Italy with Hellas Verona, and he could be one of the first names on the team sheet come the tournament proper.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Jackson Irvine

The midfield trio of Mooy, Hrustic, and Irvine started together on Thursday – as they have on plenty of recent occasions – but have struggled to gel together at times. It might force Arnold into a rethink for the starting side come Qatar, but there’s no doubt Irvine will be there in some capacity. He’s a reliable contributor and will look to celebrate his 50th Socceroos cap in Qatar.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Riley McGree

McGree has started all 10 of Middlesbrough’s Championship games this season, scoring twice, and his red-hot form should carry him all the way to Qatar.

His second half against New Zealand on Sunday was highly impressive, and will give Graham Arnold a big headache over his midfield starting combination for the World Cup. Might be used as a bench weapon.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Riley McGree was one of the Socceroos’ best on Sunday, and now looks set for a spot in the squad.Source: Getty Images

Tom Rogic

For the last decade, Rogic’s incredible feats at Celtic and his dazzling creative play made him the Australian side’s top playmaker. But things took a shock turn earlier this year when he opted out of selection for the World Cup play-offs against UAE and then Peru for undisclosed personal reasons. He has subsequently told Graham Arnold he wants to compete at the World Cup, with the coach stating he holds no grudges over his stunning withdrawal. But Rogic was club-less for months before a late move to West Brom, and is in desperate need of match minutes to hold onto his spot in the side. If he’s fit and healthy, he’ll make the side. If.

SELECTION STATUS: AT RISK

Denis Genreau

He’s one for the future – but is he one for right now? The 23-year-old is struggling to break into the first team at French top-flight Toulouse, making just a handful of bench minutes this season – and often being an unused substitute. He struggled to make an impact as a defensive midfielder on Sunday, in what has proven a problem position for Graham Arnold for a couple of years. Without more game time, he could lose his spot in the squad – especially if it comes down to a toss-up between he and Cameron Devlin, who is picking up more minutes in Scotland.

SELECTION STATUS: AT RISK

Is there space in the squad for Denis Genreau? It could be a two-way fight with Cameron Devlin.Source: AFP

Cameron Devlin

Devlin might just be the answer to the Socceroos struggles in the heart of the park. On Thursday and Sunday, the Socceroos were overrun in the midfield, with the defence not afforded enough cover from the base of the midfield. The hard-tackling young gun was impressive after coming off the bench to debut on Sunday, and a good start to the season at Hearts in Scotland has lifted him into genuine contention. His physicality and defensive nous could make him a canny selection – especially against teams with devastating attacking ability, like France.

SELECTION STATUS: PROBABLE

Connor Metcalfe

A very promising performance on Sunday did his chances no harm, highlighted by a wonderful chip assist for Mitch Duke’s goal. Like a number of young guns in the Socceroos squad, he is battling for minutes at his club – FC St. Pauli in Germany’s second tier. If he can change that, and hopefully earn regular minutes alongside teammate Jackson Irvine in the centre of the park, Arnold might be convinced to give their combination a shot at Qatar.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Keanu Baccus

Showed plenty of energy on debut, demanding the ball and throwing himself about. Has he left his World Cup run too late? Perhaps – but his good work in the Scottish Premiership hasn’t gone unnoticed. Might end up sneaking into the 26-man squad.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Keanu Baccus is strutting his stuff in Scotland – and it could earn him a place in Qatar.Source: Getty Images

James Jeggo

At 30 years old, Jeggo is a hardened warrior who has plenty of experience in the Socceroos. But missing out on this camp might hint that Arnold is looking to the future, and Jeggo might be left in the dust. Reliable if not a world-beater, it would probably take some injuries elsewhere for him to leap back into the selection picture.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Kenny Dougall

Burst into the Socceroos picture on the back of a brilliant season for Blackpool, capped off by two goals at Wembley in the 2021 playoff final that earned the club their first promotion to the Championship in six years. But Dougall was never given too many opportunities to show his stuff in the green and gold, making just three starts. He’s a regular starter in the second division this season, but it appears he simply isn’t in Arnold’s plans.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Cristian Volpato

The flashy 18-year-old playmaker has unbelievable potential. But with Italy battling Australia for his signature, the young gun hasn’t committed to the Socceroos – and it might just have cost him a World Cup spot. Had he featured in this window, he could well have been a bolter come Qatar. For now, it’s just a case of wait and see. It would be a massively controversial selection for Arnold to pick him – but it would lock in a long-term talent that could be a Socceroos star for years to come.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER.

Massimo Luongo

A star of the 2015 Asian Cup and member of the 2018 World Cup squad, Luongo has fallen into a three-year Socceroos exile. Desperate to reboot his career, he moved to Middlesbrough recently on a short-term deal until January. He’s racked up plenty of Socceroos appearances, but needs plenty of minutes – and good performances – to have any hope.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Eyes on the prize: Mathew Leckie is Australia’s second most experienced player and will feature in Qatar.Source: Getty Images

WINGERS

Mat Leckie

Captained the Sunday squad, and will go to a third World Cup as by far the most experienced attacker. His 13 goals in 73 appearances is also the most of any Socceroos player, with Ryan’s 75 caps just shading him in that regard. Leckie’s versatility – able to play across the front line – guarantees his spot, even if he is not certain to start.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Awer Mabil

A lack of club minutes was the only concern, but Mabil showed on Thursday that he has the ability to do something special – and create something out of nothing – with a wonderful long-range strike. He’ll hope for more action at his club to help his chances of keeping his starting spot.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Martin Boyle

Probably the best Socceroos’ winger in recent years, with a healthy five goals from his 19 caps. His return to Hibernian in Scotland, where he is something of a cult hero, has delivered three goals in five league games. Very likely to start.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Garang Kuol

Here’s where it gets really, really interesting. Kuol is just 18, and hasn’t started a senior game in his career. But he is an excitement machine and has now impressed against both Barcelona (with the A-League All-Stars) and New Zealand, setting up a goal and showing off all the confidence and exuberance of youth.

Former Socceroo Robbie Slater believes Kuol is “very raw,” but told Fox Sports News: “I’d have him on the plane.”

Against Barcelona and New Zealand, Slater said: “Every time he touched the ball, something happened … he’s got an incredible ability to beat his man one-on-one. He’s got a lot of pace, power.”

A strong start to the new season – and hopefully a starting role on the Central Coast – could make him the Socceroos’ next big bolter. But he’s taking huge strides forward every day, and is a real chance of figuring in Qatar.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Marco Tilio

A horrible miss against New Zealand on Sunday shouldn’t cost him a place in Qatar – especially since he shook off the woeful error to put on a very good second-half showing. He’s got plenty of potential, but at 21 is a bit more experienced than Kuol, having racked up over 50 appearances for Melbourne City. He also impressed with the Olyroos in Tokyo last year.

SELECTION STATUS: AT RISK

Brandon Borrello

The 27-year-old is back in Australia after a long stint in Germany, but hasn’t been in the Socceroos since June last year – before a foot fracture then coronavirus struck him down.

Needs a stunning start to the new season to have any hope.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Chris Ikonomidis

A former young gun who has never really hit his best for the national team, Ikonomidis has slipped well down the pecking order but could figure as a bolter if he delivers for Melbourne Victory this season.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

STRIKERS

Adam Taggart

The striker in the best form in recent months, Taggart has seven goals in 21 games this season including five in his last 12 league games in Japan’s top flight Taggart struggled on Thursday night, looking very isolated and receiving little service. He was clearly frustrated when he was substituted, likely recognising the match was a missed opportunity to stake his claim as the starting striker in Qatar. He’ll be on the plane, but club form will probably decide who starts.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Jamie Maclaren

JMac has been dominating the A-League for years, scoring goals for fun for Melbourne City – winning the golden boot four times. He’s been solid for the Socceroos too, with eight goals in 26 appearances – at a reasonable clip after not scoring in his first half-dozen or so games.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Mitch Duke

He provides something unique up front. He is physical, a strong aerial target, and capable of holding up the ball – making him a key escape route for the Socceroos to get the ball out of their own half. He scored a straightforward header on Sunday, with the star doing everything possible to convince Arnold he deserves not just to go to Qatar, but earn plenty of minutes there.

SELECTION STATUS: LOCK

Jason Cummings

Cummings practically begged and demanded that he be selected for the Socceroos, and the Scottish-born firecracker delivered with a goal just minutes after coming off the bench on Sunday. He’s a menace on the park, able to get under the skin of his opponents, and is arguably better at getting himself involved in build-up play than the likes of Taggart or Maclaren. His confidence and fighting spirit could prove valuable against the daunting tasks ahead in Qatar. If he starts the season well on the Central Coast, he could continue his rapid rise up the pecking order.

SELECTION STATUS: LONG SHOT

Jason Cummings made no mistake after earning a penalty.Source: Getty Images

Nikita Rukavytsya

A recent lack of goals for Maccabi Haifa in Israel has damaged his chances. But he’s playing in the Champions League, and a few good performances could put his name up in lights. He’s been a part of the Socceroos since 2009, but at 35 you get the feeling his international days might be done.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

Apostolos Giannou

Always a fringe Socceroo, Giannou needs to dominate when his Indian Super League season begins to have any chance of breaking into the squad.

SELECTION STATUS: BOLTER

PREDICTED SOCCEROOS SQUAD

Keepers: Mat Ryan, Mitch Langerak, Andrew Redmayne

Centre-backs: Harry Souttar, Kye Rowles, Trent Sainsbury, Milos Degenek

Fullbacks: Aziz Behich, Joel King, Nathaniel Atkinson, Fran Karacic

Centre midfielders: Aaron Mooy, Jackson Irvine, Ajdin Hrustic, Tom Rogic, Riley McGree, Cameron Devlin/Denis Genreau

Wingers: Mat Leckie, Awer Mabil, Martin Boyle, Garang Kuol, Marco Tilio

Strikers: Adam Taggart, Jamie Maclaren, Mitch Duke, Jason Cummings