Legit or imposter? Predicting whether the NWSL teams defying expectations can keep it up

It’s the most confusing time of the year: one-third of the way through the National Women’s Soccer League season, and several teams do not look like themselves. Some are exceeding expectations while the basement of the standings features a perennial playoff contender and one of last season’s finalists.

Sample sizes, however, are small — we’re just seven weeks into the regular season, and the concurrent NWSL Challenge Cup only just began last month, with some teams not even featuring in that competition yet. Inevitably, though, the dog days of summer often bring a regression to the mean across the league.

Will the league table, as it stands now, look this way come October? Almost certainly not. It’s perhaps too early to completely ignore the two-month-old preseason expectations for the NWSL’s 12 teams, but we have to look at what the start of the season is telling us, and how reality has matched up to such expectations.

So, here is how the regular season is shaping up for each team — from best to worst with their win-loss-draw records — and how likely it is that current form will be sustained.

Preseason expectations: Toss up. Washington was not good last year. The Spirit followed a 2021 title run with a second-from-bottom finish in 2022, earning just 19 points from 22 games. They consistently dropped points late in matches by allowing equalizers and game-winners, a habit that cost them any momentum. After vacating his role as Netherlands coach after a disappointing Euros, Mark Parsons returned to the NWSL this offseason to take the Spirit head coach role. Parsons oversaw a half decade worth of success in Portland before his brief stint for the Netherlands, so his return brought optimism that the Spirit could get on track with an already-strong roster.

Performance thus far: Impressive. Washington’s big three of Trinity Rodman, Ashley Hatch and Ashley Sanchez have hit their stride again in attack. All three players are fighting for their place on the World Cup squad for the U.S. women’s national team, and they look hungry and motivated, with Rodman once again terrorizing defenses on the flanks, as she did against the San Diego Wave two weeks ago. Hatch leads the league with five goals after burying a penalty kick in second-half stoppage time on Saturday to beat Angel City FC in Los Angeles. Washington’s classic diamond midfield has smothered other teams playing more in-vogue systems, and the team’s five goals against is tied for the best in the league.

Future form forecast: Promising, but with caution. One of the impressive parts of the Spirit’s defensive record is that it exists with something of a bold experiment by Parsons: he converted forward Tara McKeown to a center-back (she even still wears the No. 9 jersey typically seen on strikers). McKeown has been great thus far. Can she sustain that form over the entire season?

A more pressing question will come in attack for the Spirit. If all of Hatch, Rodman and Sanchez go to the World Cup — which looks likely — who will step up for the Spirit? Early results are promising, especially because this team is finding ways to win late rather than drop points from winning positions, as it did last season.

OL Reign: 13 points (4-1-1)

Preseason expectations: Extremely high. The 2022 Shield winner remains a perennial contender loaded with big-name talent, yet again in search of an elusive first championship. They also had the league’s best defense in 2022 under the tactical plan of head coach Laura Harvey. Much like last year, this team has to find a way to win in the playoffs. Everything before that is exposition to the story that they hope finally has a different ending.

Performance thus far: Mostly convincing. The Reign followed an impressive 1-0 victory over the San Diego Wave in April with a 5-2 smashing of the Chicago Red Stars. In early May, they shut out the Houston Dash, a team with a three-headed monster of dynamic forwards up top.

Harvey’s side has done all this without the recent help of Rose Lavelle or Quinn in midfield due to injuries. U.S. national team defender Emily Sonnett has seamlessly slotted into the holding midfielder position, and Bethany Balcer is the unlikely No. 10 alongside savvy veteran Jess Fishlock in midfield. A 1-0 loss to the North Carolina Courage on Saturday is reason for some caution.

Performance thus far: Chaotic and unpolished. This Courage team has felt very 2022, which is to say they remain a work in progress. North Carolina was the neutral fan’s delight in 2022, playing in several ridiculous, chaotic, high scoring matches — sometimes to the Courage’s detriment. A recent 3-3 draw with the Portland Thorns felt eerily like the issues of yesteryear: North Carolina led thrice, only to blow the lead on each occasion. The Courage have won winnable games and lost to better teams.

A home victory over the Thorns would have been a stake in the ground. That marker eventually came Saturday with a win over OL Reign, who led the league entering the weekend. Imagine if the Courage had closed out the game against Portland the week prior?

Future form forecast: Winnable games in sight with time to get on track. After the big win over OL Reign on Sunday, North Carolina has a sweet spot in the schedule at a crucial time of the season: nine straight regular-season games await against teams that currently sit in sixth place or worse, including the full season series with Angel City and Racing Louisville. The next truly intimidating game in league play is not until August 20, the return leg with the Thorns in Portland. If the Courage want to surge up the table, it must happen early. More difficult games await in the homestretch.

Preseason expectations: Optimistic. The addition of Diana Ordonez to an attack that already featured Maria Sanchez and Ebony Salmon brought a lot of attention to Houston. This was to be a team that could score on anyone, a team with arguably the most intimidating front three in the league. Houston had finally gotten over the playoff hump in 2022, and there appeared to be some stability finally for a franchise that long yearned for it.

BIG TIME SALMON GOAL 🥵 pic.twitter.com/NxXvUjXoJm

— National Women’s Soccer League (@NWSL) May 13, 2023

Performance thus far: Just getting by. For all that excitement about the attack, the Dash have scored only five goals in seven regular-season games. Houston has been shut out in five of nine games in all competitions, and the team’s only victories this season prior to Friday had come over the last-place Chicago Red Stars (once in league play and once in the Challenge Cup). Then came the big one: a 2-1 victory over Portland, snapping a 57-game unbeaten streak for the Thorns when leading at halftime (all competitions, per Opta).

New Dash head coach Sam Laity has tested out a hybrid 3-5-2 system that has put a significant amount of pressure on the team’s center backs, although he strayed from that against Portland. The Dash have only conceded six goals in the regular season, but they’ve been lucky at times, especially in a 1-1 draw away to Portland last month, when the Thorns found acres of space but couldn’t finish.

Future form forecast: Likely to improve. An expected goals against (xGA) of 8.8, per FBRef, illustrates some of Houston’s defensive fortune. The good news is that the Dash should start scoring more, not just because they have the talent to do so, but because players are getting in the positions to score. The team’s 7.8 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, is a sign that the chances are there. Just like last season, under different coaching, it’s curious to see Sanchez in a hybrid wing-back role at times when she could be closer to goal more often, but it is a product of the team’s roster. Ordonez and Salmon must start finishing opportunities.

Preseason expectations: Growing. Year one was a relative success for expansion side Angel City. Had the Wave not also simultaneously set a new bar for expansion teams, Angel City just missing out on a playoff spot would have otherwise been the best finish for an NWSL expansion team.

The Los Angeles team are also without Christen Press and Sarah Gorden for most and all of last season respectively, and their impending returns were among the reasons to be excited about this squad’s potential. Then, of course, there was the offseason addition of No. 1 draft pick Alyssa Thompson, an 18-year-old forward who had already been capped by the U.S. national team.

Want another angle of Alyssa Thompson’s golazo?

Of course you do 🤩 pic.twitter.com/6Nlcx8svCs

— National Women’s Soccer League (@NWSL) May 8, 2023

Performance thus far: Late collapses persist. Thompson has been a revelation and an injection of life into not only this team, but the NWSL. She also looks to be on the fast track to a World Cup roster spot. Angel City remains a mid-table team with a wide deviation of performances.

Angel City looked like the better team in losses to Gotham and San Diego and managed to go punch for punch with the Thorns at Providence Park in a 3-3 draw recently. The catch to that result is that Angel City twice blew the lead, including in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time when Portland goalkeeper Bella Bixby scored on a corner kick. On Saturday, they lost 1-0 to the Spirit on a second-half stoppage-time penalty. It was a harsh call, but it continued a trend.

Future form forecast: Grueling stretch ahead will punish inconsistency. A microcosm of the inconsistency plaguing Angel City is 2-2 draw with Racing Louisville in LA on April 15. Louisville jumped on Angel City early, winning the midfield battle and going up 2-0. Angel City fought back with two second-half goals to earn a point, but 90-minute performances have been lacking. That result was also an opportunity missed, because among the next four league games is another against unbeaten Washington Spirit and one on the road to face OL Reign. Another reason for optimism around Angel City is the recent signing of midfielder Julie Ertz, who fills a major void for a team that needed more bite in midfield. Was Ertz the missing piece? We’ll find out. The return of Press also looms.

Preseason expectations: Higher than before. Racing Louisville looked like a team that, at minimum, should be getting better. As a 2021 expansion team, Racing finished second from bottom, then climbed to ninth out of 12 teams last year but never really challenged for a playoff spot. The expectation this season, the second with head coach Kim Björkegren in charge, was to be in the mix for the playoffs. Even after trading away Emily Fox (the No. 1 draft pick in 2021), there is promising young talent in midfield with Savannah DeMelo and Jaelin Howell. The relatively costly offseason addition of Nigerian striker Uchenna Kanu from Tigres added further expectations.

Performance thus far: Terrible. Swanson’s long-term injury (torn patella tendon) sustained while with the U.S. team in early April is a factor here, but the big issue in Chicago has been a leaky defense. Casey Krueger (maternity leave) and Tierna Davidson (ACL injury) are still getting reassimilated after their returns and goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher has had some uncharacteristically bad moments.

Some of this defensive weakness originates in midfield, which was decimated in the offseason by the departures of Danielle Colaprico, Vanessa DiBernardo and Morgan Gautrat via free agency. Conceding 18 goals conceded in seven regular-season games is unacceptable by any standards.

Future form forecast: Concerning. The level of individual talent in defense suggests that the Red Stars should get better on that side of the ball, although at minimum, Naeher will be leaving for the World Cup. Who will carry the scoring load over the long haul? Swanson’s absence cannot be understated. Ella Stevens, Ava Cook and Penelope Hocking are potential long-term solutions. A more existential question is whether this three-back system really is the right solution for this team, or if it has run its course given the offseason changes. The ball is not bouncing Chicago’s way — quite literally in the case of the Naeher own goal on Friday from a penalty kick that bounced back off the post — but this team needs a complete system reset.