Nick Kyrgios’s chances in the Australian Open? Chances of what?
Chances of a code violation for racquet abuse: no market available. Chances of audible obscenities: no market available. Chances of unsportsmanlike conduct: no market available. Each is a dead cert, literally unbackable.
Chances of winning seven best-of-five-set matches including the final? Kyrgios thinks so. Talking a good game, at which he has a current world ranking of No.1, Kyrgios pronounced, “I’m one of the favourites, so it’s kind of new for me”.
This is true. A year ago, ranked No.115 in the world, Kyrgios was dumped out in the second round by eventual runner-up Daniil Medvedev. This year, “after the year I’ve had”, Kyrgios is ranked No.21.
He continued: “This is the first time I’ve genuinely gone into a slam feeling like I’m one of the guys who can really take the trophy and knock on the door.” Which door? Why? These questions were left shrouded in mystery at the typically enigmatic right-handed Canberran’s Thursday media call. If he’s knocking at the door that I’m thinking of, hopefully he won’t damage the trophy. Hopefully, he’ll leave it outside. Then he can go in there and be himself, the world No.2. You do you, Nick.
If you have seen Kyrgios in Netflix’s documentary series Break Point, you will understand that everything he does, including appearing in that series, is calculated and choreographed. The cameras came in and the sequences were shot and edited, but on his terms. That’s the price they had to pay to get access to the world No.115.
Nick Kyrgios on this year’s Australian Open: “I’m one of the favourites, so it’s kind of new for me”.Credit:Getty
Contra the haters (“I don’t think any other tennis player, especially in Australia, is under as much media scrutiny as I am – it’s a day-to-day thing, day-to-day battle,” he lamented), I think it’s a good thing that Kyrgios is finally revealing himself as someone who cares, painfully, about how he is perceived. It’s obvious to anyone, maybe even himself. All that too-cool-for-tennis schtick that went on for so long, all the ‘I’d rather be a basketballer’, fell away like a towel when Kyrgios started winning matches and rising up the rankings.
By Wimbledon, when he aced his way past a string of unseeded journeymen plus Stefanos Tsitsipas, making the final before a head-on collision with a Serbian wall, Kyrgios had fully dropped the ‘I don’t care’ pose and was openly admitting he wanted to win so badly it hurt. And it did hurt. I can only speak for spectators and other drunks, but it manifestly hurt him too. This was arguably a sign of maturity, or at least an unguarded moment. He wants to win. Wow.
Now we know that the desire is so consuming, we can understand his tantrums and tweet-trums and on-court obnoxiousness for what it is: a tactical approach to winning. It worked for Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe, and it generally does work for anyone who is also good enough to beat the other player. The opponent is the real audience for these displays. If it gets up the opponent’s nose, if it puts him off his game, it has succeeded.
So we come back to Kyrgios’s chances in the Australian Open, which must be measured by who, among those up whose noses he inserts himself, he is likely to face.
Rafael Nadal barely conceals his disdain for Nick Kyrgios.Credit:Getty
On this rating, it doesn’t look like a great prospect for him. First, on the opposite side of the draw are several men who Kyrgios really gives the tom-tits. Rafael Nadal won’t say it with his mouth, in public, but everything in his demeanour and between the lines (if he can avoid stepping on them) screams that Nadal believes Kyrgios is a stain on tennis’s backside, a jockstrap stuck annoyingly in an intimate place, and, as Nadal embodies so much of the spirit of the game, a stain on himself. Someday he will slip up and confess that he never liked the punk. Kyrgios knows this and has played it well.
Also on the non-Kyrgios side is Tsitsipas. As Greek-heritage players, Kyrgios and Tsitsipas are about as friendly as the Aegeans and the Spartans. Some time ago, Kyrgios got up Tsitsipas’s nose and now he lives there rent-free.
Medvedev is also on that side. He tonked Kyrgios in Melbourne last year, but that was before Russia’s war. It’s hard to tell where Medvedev’s head is at, but being thankful for small graces, it’s not in Ukraine. He might be vulnerable, he might not, but Kyrgios would not be able to find out either way until the final.
Meanwhile, who does Kyrgios face? First round is a qualifier, Roman Safiullin, who is also from Russia, so that will give Kyrgios the warm feeling of having his whole country behind him.
The second round is French toast: either Richard Gasquet, who was on tour before Kyrgios was born, or Ugo Humbert, who hasn’t won a ranking-points match since October and has slipped from top 25 to outside the top 100. His last year has been a Kyrgios in reverse. Being an almost-namesake for the pedophile narrator of Vladimir Nabokov’s Lolita, Humbert must also be despised.
From there it gets tough, probably at the time Kyrgios’s legs begin asking him why he didn’t get fitter before this tournament. Denmark’s Holger Rune and another Russian, Andrei Rublev, are top-ten sluggers. Although both can be hot-headed, is Kyrgios truly up their nose? There’s no recent evidence, as he hasn’t been playing. He will have to do his homework to really irritate them by next week, or hope that he gets a repeat of Wimbledon and the good players get knocked out before he meets them.
Quarter-final could be Alex de Minaur or, gulp, Novak Djokovic. Here is where it really knocks on the door. Kyrgios is up de Minaur’s nose, but by then he would also be up Australia’s. Millions would be on de Minaur’s side. More likely, it will be Djokovic, and sad to say, Australia’s act of forgiving Djokovic (or apologising) for last year will be to cheer for him against Kyrgios.
Should a miracle happen, Kyrgios would likely have Casper Ruud or Taylor Fritz waiting in the semis, and by then he will be so pooped he won’t know his Ruuds from his Runes and his head will be on the fritz.
Well, good luck with that! We can’t quote actual odds on these things as we’re generally against sports betting, but remember, Australia, please gamble as responsibly as your man behaves on the court.
Watch the Australian Open live and free on the 9Network – Channel 9 and 9Gem.
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