The key to Penrith’s sustained success during the past few years has been the club’s ability to extract value out of players on a salary worth far less than the standard of football they produce.
Dylan Edwards, arguably the most improved player in the competition since 2021, is a case in point.
There can only be one: Jarome Luai and Dylan Edwards may not be able to both remain at Penrith beyond next year.Credit: Getty
He’s played to a standard of football worth in excess of $800,000 – some in recent days even suggesting a value of seven figures – yet on the salary cap sits at around $500,000.
“They’ve got him for peanuts over there,” Manly prop Aaron Woods said on Triple M’s Monday Scrum podcast. “I’d pay a million dollars for him.”
What about Jarome Luai? A two-time premiership-winning and Origin series-winning playmaker, who also led Samoa on an incredible run to the World Cup final last year, on a deal worth around $750,000.
If Mitchell Moses, who’s never won a premiership and only played State of Origin in a dead rubber when Nathan Cleary was unavailable, can command offers of $1.4m from rival clubs, what is Luai worth?
Mitchell Moses celebrates the win against the Tigers on Easter Monday.Credit: Getty
If Dally M medal winner Nicho Hynes is a million-dollar player, isn’t a 26-year-old Luai at least in the same conversation, given his resume?
Penrith have until November 1 to retain the pair, who are both managed by the same company, before they become free agents. But there’s a realisation at Penrith that, if both players are expecting to get paid market value, one of them won’t be there beyond the end of their contract expiration next year.
The Panthers have a huge decision to make in the next month. Do they offer both players less than market value in the hope of trying to keep them both?
It’s a strategy Parramatta tried to execute with several players last year, leading to big-name stars feeling disrespected with low-ball offers and eventually culminating in Reed Mahoney and Isaiah Papali’i leaving the club.
Dylan Edwards scores one of his four tries against Manly last weekend.Credit: Getty
Or do Penrith prioritise and target one of their two spine members knowing the other is likely to leave?
That’s the million-dollar conundrum for coach Ivan Cleary and Panthers rugby league chief executive Matt Cameron.
Depending on who you ask, you’ll get a different response.
“I’d probably go Edwards, being a specialist fullback,” Paul Gallen said on Nine’s 100% Footy on Monday night.
“I think specialist fullbacks are so important these days. I think with Jarome Luai, they’ve already got Nathan Cleary there to lead the team around the park. I think they can probably find another five-eighth coming through the grades.”
But across the table, former Panthers general manager turned Bulldogs supremo Phil Gould has a completely contrasting opinion.
“I know what [Penrith have] got coming through,” Gould said. “They’ve got plenty of wingers, plenty of fullbacks and plenty of fast outside backs. It’s pretty hard to find a Jarome Luai. It’s pretty hard to find halves at the moment. I think they can replace most positions, other than their halves.
“It’s a premiership-winning, Origin-winning combination. It’s very hard to let that go in the current climate. How many clubs are out there trying to chase a halfback and a playmaker? Dylan Edwards is a mighty player, but halves – they are so hard to come by.
“I would prioritise the halves. The fullback [Edwards] is a great young player and he’s on probably half of what he can earn somewhere else. I think someone else will go out and pay double that money for him. I don’t know if the Panthers can afford to pay double that money for him.”
Jarome Luai could have a huge decision to make.Credit: Wolter Peeters
For Penrith, consideration will be given to what they have coming through the system as potential replacements. Jesse McLean, the 19-year-old who was recently elevated into the top 30 NRL squad, is considered a star of the future and a potential long-term fullback.
The Panthers this year let go of Isaiya Katoa, the 18-year-old rookie sensation at the Dolphins, but have fast-tracked the development of Jack Cole. He’s earmarked as a long-term halves option at the club if Luai was to leave.
There are a number of factors with Luai – who has now watched close friends Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) and Spencer Leniu (Roosters) pledge their allegiances elsewhere from next year – that could determine how contract negotiations pan out.
If his motivation is earning a financial pay-day, it’s hard to see him remaining at the club with Cleary on close to $1.3m and both James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo tied down on long-term deals.
Stephen Crichton, Jarome Luai and Brian To’o pose in Penrith heartland, the Nepean River.Credit: Nick Moir
If he is driven by playing at a successful club alongside people he grew up with, in the area he loves, he may sacrifice the dollars.
“There could be a conversation like they had with Crichton,” former Bulldogs captain James Graham predicted on Monday Scrum.
“‘Here’s our best offer, if you want to stay at a back-to-back premiership-winning team and play with Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo and all these great players, we can’t give you your market value, and you’re going to have to accept that.’”
The other factor is how Luai wants to be remembered. Is he satisfied being the Scottie Pippen to Nathan’s Cleary’s Michael Jordan?
Luai’s feats often get lost in the justified hype around his halves partner. He showed at the World Cup that he doesn’t need Cleary to shine on his own.
With three grand finals and two premierships already in the bag, and the likelihood of more before his contract expires in 2024, perhaps a new challenge would appeal to the Panthers No.6?
Regardless, Penrith’s conundrum is a headache 16 other teams would welcome, and will be watching with vested interest.
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