Race 1 – DARLEY MARIBYRNONG PLATE (1000M)
Zulfiqar may lead from barrier three but it’s a guessing game with the majority of these on debut.
Zulfiqar (1) is the safe play given he’s been down the straight previously and won well. He was pretty professional following the rail there but jockeys might be keen to veer right in this given the wet conditions and the fact they raced here on Derby day.
Stablemate Diabelli (3) has trialled okay in Sydney and you just have to respect Godolphin in everything at the moment.
Hellish (5) has jumpout form around Zulfiqar, while Exposition (4) gets J-Mac for his debut and is well-drawn if they head down the middle of the track.
VERDICT: Zulfiqar (1) on top but happy to shoulder arms to this one with so many debutants.
Race 2 – THE MACCA’S RUN (2800M)
Verimli looks the leader ahead of Herman Hesse (if here). Aurora’s Symphony and Good Idea may follow them across. Caboche and Themoonlitegambler won’t be far from the action.
White Marlin (7) has drawn poorly but he’s 4 from 4 and has a lot more scope than most of his rivals in this. He was too strong first-up over 1800m on a Good 4, before recording a dominant win up to 2000m on a Heavy 8. Third-up off a lengthy break, you’d think the Waterhouse and Bott import will only improve.
Caboche (9) finished 3rd to the flying Port Philip over 2400m last start, which is decent form for this. He’s drawn ideally in barrier five.
Verimli (8) led and battled on gamely for 3rd in the G3 Bendigo Cup (2400m) on Wednesday. He’ll be rock-hard fit for this.
Jumper Bell Ex One (14) should be strong late if the track is genuinely rain-affected. Many will be gasping for air when he’s just hitting his straps under Oliver.
VERDICT: White Marlin (7) looks better than these. BEST BET
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Cup parade returns to Melbourne | 02:31
Race 3 RESIMAX GROUP SUBZERO HANDICAP (1400M)
Main speed looks to be out wide here through Smokin’ Toff and Naval Envoy. Strucky By should land in the first four from barrier one. Love Tap, Ascension and The Cunning Fox can all be handy from good gates.
Criminal Code (3) will be better over further but he’s jumped out well and McDonald rides first-up. He’s placed in 3 of his 5 fresh outings and is also a winner on heavy.
Ascension (4) won nicely last start but punters have to take $3.90 here rather than the $41 he paid at Caulfield. Was that a fluke or will the Maher and Eustace-trained grey string a few good ones together now?
The Cunning Fox (10), like Criminal Code, is another stayer resuming over 1400m. He was good behind Alegron in the Listed VRC Leger (2800m) here prior to going for a break and has drawn well for Williams.
Struck By (5) is a query on really wet ground but won well on a Soft 7 in SA last start. He boasts an outstanding winning strike rate (7 from 17) and makes his own luck up on the speed.
VERDICT: Small bet on Criminal Code (3) in a tricky affair.
Race 4 – TAB TROPHY (1800M)
Zoe’s Promise looks the leader here from Pericles (if they bypass the Derby) and Lindermann. Dashing and Quang Tri may roll across from wide gates.
Quang Tri (12) has an awkward gate – does Dee roll forward or snag back? – but her form is hard to knock. She’s only missed a place once in seven career runs and covered plenty of additional ground when beaten as favourite at this track/distance prior to going for a break. She got through the heavy ground to win well enough on resumption.
Zoe’s Promise (1) looked in trouble last start but got up off the canvas to score, with the first two home putting a space on the rest. The rise to 1800m won’t pull her up and she clearly handles wet ground.
Dashing (3) comes back from the G2 Vase (2040m) where he knocked up after leading to finish 5.1L from Berkeley Square. This is easier.
VERDICT: Quang Tri (12) to overcome the wide gate.
Race 5 – THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE PLATE (1000M)
Straight-course race. Epic Centre and Field Of Flutes will jump fast down on the inside. Pyrios, Alpha Flight and Shalaman will be prominent down the middle. The tempo looks hot.
It was a very plain win from Port Albert (8) last start, falling in as a $1.26 favourite at Moe. He may have just been a bit flat second-up, because his fresh run over this trip was much better. He’s yet to miss a place in four starts, handles the wet, and appears well-drawn in the middle.
Kin (17) was a good thing beaten over this trip at Caulfield two-back, before finishing just behind the placegetters at Group 3 level last start. She has experience down the straight and Kah sticks.
Alpha Flight (5) is very speedy and handles soft/heavy. He’ll be in front or very close to it for a long way.
Lascars (3) doesn’t want it too wet – failed on a Heavy 10 last start – but he has to be respected on his straight-track form. The son of Sepoy finished 2nd to Giga Kick over this trip four-back.
VERDICT: Port Albert (8) might be overs at $17.
Race 6 – FURPHY PLATE (1800M)
Holbien and Sharper look the pacesetters here, from Lord Vladivostock and Noname Lane. Bermadez will likely roll forward as well.
Noname Lane (4) has won 9 from 14 on soft tracks and generally races in the first three or four. Provided the fence isn’t absolute poison, Meech should give him every chance from barrier one. His Toorak run reads well for this.
Lord Vladivostok (13) started favourite in this race last year but pulled up lame after dropping out in the straight to finish last. He’s only had three runs since but his last couple have been very good and he maps for the right run in this. Heavy would be a query.
Bermadez (8) boasts an excellent overall record (16:6-3-0) but he has been rolled as favourite in all three of his starts this campaign. He’s won 5 from 8 on soft tracks, so he might be worth another chance.
Just Folk (1) maps to be back and wide with 60kg but he’s still a big chance if the track is heavy. His last-start 2nd to Cascadian is easy to like.
VERDICT: Noname Lane (4) on top in another even affair.
Race 7 – LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP (3200M) – SEE OUR FULL BREAKDOWN
Race 8 – IN MEMORY OF HER MAJESTY QUEEN ELIZABETH II (1400M)
Speed from Second Slip and More Than Exceed out wide. He’s The Real Deel, Star Of Chaos and The Garden will be handy. Munhamek and Nugget should settle just worse than midfield with cover.
There looks to be decent speed in this, which should suit those settling around midfield. Munhamek (10) was excellent winning at his Australian debut two-back, beating El Rocko and Cardinal Gem. He then worked home nicely for 3rd on a very heavy track at Caulfield last start. He maps to settle a bit closer in this third-up.
Detonator Jack (13) resumes here after finishing 3rd in the G1 SA Derby (2500m) back in May. He was mighty impressive winning his first three career starts, including a dominant win on a Soft 7 at Sandown two-back.
Import Green Fly (14) will likely want further than this but a heavy track would work in his favour. Berry should find a nice trailing spot from barrier seven, provided he steps cleanly.
Zakat (16) likes heavy ground and goes well fresh, but he generally finds one or two stronger. He’s one for exotics at decent odds though.
VERDICT: Munhamek (10) for the win. Smaller play on Detonator Jack (13) at double-figure odds too.
Race 9 – THE HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (1400M)
Speed out wide from Ancient Girl and maybe Asymmetrical. Tycoon Evie, Adele Amour and Turaath (if here) will be handy.
Promise Of Success (1) doesn’t want it really heavy but she’s a gun on soft tracks (5:4-1-0). Barrier one could be a little iffy though if she ends up in a midfield position.
Decent Raine (10) is very genuine and has been good in two runs back from a break. She’s yet to miss a place in five starts on rain-affected ground and was a dominant winner over this route last campaign.
Literary Magnate (3) won well on resumption and is another who likes wet ground. She’ll get back but should be steaming home under Yendall who boasts a good record on the Williams mare (6:2-1-1).
Turaath (2) was awful on Derby day, with no obvious excuses. She’s much better than that and has obvious claims on her best form.
The chances don’t end there – this is a raffle!
VERDICT: Promise Of Success (1) on top but no confidence at all here.
Race 10 – MSS SECURITY SPRINT (1200M)
The Astrologist is likely to set the pace here down the middle of the track. General Beau and Pioneer River won’t be too far away. Can’t imagine the inside barriers will be advantaged here.
Pioneer River (14) has each-way claims at decent odds. He was good on a bottomless track in Sydney two-back and goes very well down the straight – especially over this trip (6:3-1-0). His 3rd to Chain Of Lightning here three-back is solid form.
The Astrologist (1) went well here on Derby day, finishing 3rd behind Argentia and Triple Missile. He probably doesn’t want it heavy but boasts excellent soft stats (9:4-1-2). He appears well-drawn here and looks the leader.
Nicolini Vito (10) won at this track/distance back in July and was good behind Gravina at Caulfield last start. He’ll be charging late with 54kg.
Vespertine (16) has never seen a heavy track but she possesses a big finish on her day.
VERDICT: Like the odds ($16) for Pioneer River (14) here. BEST VALUE
