It was supposed to be a “bloodbath”. A Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks in the AFC West. The all-conquering Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, suddenly found themselves in a division where all three other teams had pushed their pieces to the middle of the table.
The Broncos (Russell Wilson), Raiders (Davante Adams) and Chargers (Khalil Mack) all had a shiny new toy while the Chiefs had traded their greatest weapon away.
“It’s [the AFC West] going to be a bloodbath,” Broncos left tackle Garett Bolles told The Ringerat the time.
“I can tell you this, one of these teams in the AFC West will probably win the Super Bowl because of the caliber of teams we have here.”
Hindsight though is a beautiful thing. And in hindsight, the supremacy of the AFC West was greatly overblown.
The same goes for the supposed demise of the Chiefs and, by extension, Mahomes — who signed with Kansas City on a 10-year, $503 million ($A708m) deal in 2020.
“This one gonna expose some people!!…Glad he out the division too,” Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen wrote on Instagram after Tyreek Hill was traded by Kansas City.
But instead of Hill’s departure bringing Mahomes back down to earth, it has only elevated him into another stratosphere entirely.
A stratosphere where Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards, passing Drew Brees to set an NFL record for most total yards by a quarterback in a single season — and he did it all without his most lethal weapon.
At this point Mahomes it not just an ‘elite’ quarterback. That word has effectively lost meaning, carelessly tossed around by talking heads without any clear criteria for what one actually requires to be considered ‘elite’.
Mahomes transcends the modern definition. Instead, he is “in his own tier” according to The Athletic’s Robert Mays, who admitted earlier this week to a mistake many of us are also guilty of these days.
“I’ve talked about this before and I’m so guilty of this,” Mays said on ‘The Athletic Football Show’.
“Where I just want the new, shiny thing to be exciting because I get bored and that’s how I’ve wanted to be with some of the quarterbacks.
“I think a lot of us thrust guys into the top tier before they are ready to go into that top tier. I think what I’ve recognised by the end of this year and what I’m more than willing to accept is that Mahomes is in his own tier.
“He is in own tier of quarterbacks and players in the NFL. He’s the best player in football.”
It’s not like Mahomes should have had anything to prove anyway, given what he had already achieved in his career, crowned a Super Bowl MVP in just his second season as a starter.
But if his latest season in the NFL has taught us anything, it is that doubting or downplaying the 27-year-old’s greatness is a foolish endeavour.
It’s almost as if Mahomes is a victim of his own consistency. The Ringer’s Rodger Sherman, writing back in December, termed it as the “greatness fatigue portion” of Mahomes’ career.
“He’s the best QB in the NFL, but we already knew that,” Sherman wrote at the time.
“What we may not have realised is that he might be playing the best football of his career.”
He’s right too. The numbers speak for themselves.
ON ANOTHER LEVEL: MAHOMES MAGIC IN NUMBERS, via The Athletic
– Most total yards ever in a season by a QB (5,420)
– An NFL-leading 41 passing touchdowns
– An NFL-leading 5,250 passing yards
– 1st in QBR (77.7, ahead of second-place Josh Allen by more than 6 points)
– 1st in EPA per dropback (.27; league average of .04 for QBs with 250-plus passing attempts)
– 1st in passing success rate
– 1st in Football Outsiders’ DYAR
– 3rd in sack percentage
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Now, Mahomes and the Chiefs are just one game away from another Super Bowl appearance and another chance to sit back and truly appreciate the 27-year-old’s greatness.
This time will be different too. When Mahomes was spotted limping around the field early in the second quarter of last weekend’s game against Jacksonville, Chiefs Kingdom held its collective breath.
And even though he was able to return to the field, Mahomes was clearly limited by what has now confirmed to be a high ankle sprain.
It means Mahomes’ magic, his scrambling ability and usual trickery outside of the pocket to extend plays, will be severely compromised.
Mahomes had led the league with 183 designed rollouts and scrambles during the regular season, per PFF, and the Chiefs were finding plenty of success with it too.
Kansas City’s superstar quarterback led the league with an 84.4 PFF passing grade on such plays while Tom Brady and Jared Goff, who both release the ball early, had lower sack rates than Mahomes.
As a result, scrambling plays like this one to set up a Jerick McKinnon touchdown will most likely be out of the question, at least if the injury is as bad as it looked against the Jaguars.
Mahomes will also have to operate almost exclusively as a pocket passer, having previously thrown more passes from outside the pocket (113) than any other quarterback during the regular season.
But one of the things that makes this version of Mahomes even more impressive is the way he has adjusted his game to a new-look Chiefs offence that is not as reliant on big plays.
Mahomes is putting up career-best passing numbers and breaking records without throwing the 50-yard bombs for Hill that made him so exciting to watch in the first place.
Instead, in response to opposition defences taking away those explosive plays, Mahomes has reinvented himself as a passer all while getting the most out of a new-look receiving room.
It is a point Nora Princiotti made on The Ringer’s ‘The Scramble’ in December while arguing Mahomes was the clear MVP, regardless of Jalen Hurts’ improved at Philadelphia.
“We know he is perfectly capable of all those deep and explosive plays but he’s actually undergone this really, really impressive season where he’s transitioned away from some of that stuff because that’s what they need to do to win because he doesn’t have Tyreek Hill anymore,” Princiotti said at the time.
“It is very rare to see a player be able to change his style and change the way he operates. We’re actually very lucky this season because we’re seeing with Joe Burrow and with Mahomes, it’s not so much the way he’s playing or seeing the field. It’s the offence.
“The fact he’s willing to do that. The fact we don’t watch him go through the season and seem like he’s forcing it, that it’s working just as well, that the drop-off in efficiency is nil without Tyreek, who is having an incredible season.
“The fact Mahomes is just business is usual is maybe the most impressive thing I’ve seen him do in his career… it is just so unreal that there hasn’t been a drop-off and that even arguably he is playing more efficiently than we have ever seen him do before.”
That’s the thing about Mahomes this season. The highlight-reel plays are still there, from flipping a no-look touchdown pass to McKinnon to this diving effort against the Seahawks.
But those mind-boggling moments, the ones we have come to expect from Mahomes and at times taken for granted, are not even the most impressive part of what he’s doing right now.
Rather, this season Mahomes has proven he can do more with less and that whatever opposition defences dare him to throw, he will still find ways to dominate.
“Most quarterbacks cannot withstand that much change, that much change in how defences are attacking them,” Princiotti added.
“It just doesn’t happen. What Mahomes is doing just doesn’t happen.”
What makes Mahomes particularly special though, as Mays explained on ‘The Athletic Show’, is not just the fact he is able to make spectacular plays.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts, who have all been shortlisted as MVP nominees this season, can all do plenty of special things — both with their arm and on the ground.
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But Mahomes doesn’t just have the sky-high ceiling. He also has the rock-solid floor, or as Mays put it: “The high-level stuff is unbelievable… but there are no negative plays”.
“What he can do, those two contrasting things that can exist at once, there’s no one like that,” Mays added.
“To be able to do it inside of structure, outside of structure, he’s probably the best quarterback I’ve ever seen and he played this season like that guy.
“It was a special season from an all-time player. He has more answers than any quarterback I’ve seen. Think of how many turnover-worth plays and turnovers Josh Allen had this year and contrast that with what Mahomes did.
“He’s on another level. He’s in his own stratosphere. This is a statement season from him.”
And if breaking records without his best receiver is not enough of a statement, how about carrying the Chiefs to Super Bowl glory all while running around on an injured ankle?
Maybe then we will truly appreciate just how great, how different Mahomes really is.
