Are we witnessing the end of Manchester City‘s incredible period of dominance, and have recent weeks exposed the first cracks in the winning empire built by Pep Guardiola? When the Champions League fixture list for the new 36-team league phase was released in September, nobody could have seriously predicted that Wednesday’s clash with Paris Saint-Germain would be a make-or-break game for two of Europe’s most powerful clubs. But that is exactly what it has become, with both sides in danger of not advancing to the knockout rounds.
For PSG, the club’s decision to dispense with a policy of superstar signings (Kylian Mbappé left on a free transfer for Real Madrid in the summer) and focus on up-and-coming talent helps explain their unexpected slide in the Champions League, but Luis Enrique’s team are still leaving domestic rivals trailing in their wake in France. Not only are PSG still on course for another Ligue 1 title, unbeaten in 18 games and leading second-place Marseille by 10 points, but they’re alive in the French Cup and eyeing up another treble.
It is a different story at City. Having guided the team to an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title last season, Guardiola has endured a series of career lows as manager this season. City are miles off the pace in the title race — 12 points behind leaders Liverpool, having played a game more — and ended 2024 with just one win in 13 games in all competitions. That run included five successive defeats and an overall sequence of nine losses in 13 games.
Despite three wins and two draws in their past five league games, Guardiola’s squad are showing signs of age and decline. Right-back Kyle Walker, 34, wants to leave, while midfielder Ilkay Gündogan, also 34, has been a shadow of his former self since returning to the club from Barcelona last summer. Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, 33, is out of contract this summer and has yet to discuss a new deal.
Star striker Erling Haaland‘s decision to sign a 10-year contract last week was an unexpected coup for City and a huge morale boost for all connected with the club, but there remains so much uncertainty around the Etihad.
Guardiola’s future remains the subject of speculation despite signing his own contract extension in November, City have lost their magic touch in the transfer market, opponents have lost their fear of Guardiola’s once-formidable team, and the club are seeing homegrown players (including Cole Palmer and Liam Delap) exceed expectations with their new teams after perhaps being offloaded too soon.
There were other key exits that contributed to the downward spiral. When John Smith stepped down as Liverpool chairman in 1990, the club had amassed 11 league titles, four European Cups, two UEFA Cups, three FA Cups and four League Cups since his elevation to the role in 1973. He was an understated local businessman who set the tone for Liverpool’s approach on and off the field. “We’re a very, very modest club,” Smith said. “We don’t talk. We don’t boast. But we’re very professional.”
In tandem with the club’s chief executive, Peter Robinson, Smith successfully appointed three managers — Bob Paisley, Joe Fagan and Dalglish — in the space of 11 years and sanctioned a series of astute signings including Dalglish, Graeme Souness, Ian Rush, John Barnes and Peter Beardsley, all of whom became club legends and key figures in successful teams. Liverpool also mastered the art of moving big players, including goalkeeper Ray Clemence and team captain Souness, out of the club at the right time.
When Smith stepped down, the club soon started making mistakes with player signings and managerial appointments: Souness replaced Dalglish in 1991, leaving his role as manager of Glasgow Rangers as Liverpool abandoned Smith’s approach of appointing managers from within the club.
“If you think about the continuity at Liverpool from Bill Shankly onwards, that all left with Kenny,” former Liverpool defender Steve Nicol told ESPN.
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SATURDAY, JAN. 25 (all times ET)
• Villa vs. Man City (WSL) (6:55 a.m.)
• Freiburg vs. Bayern Munich (9:20 a.m.)
• Dortmund vs. Bremen (9:20 a.m.)
• Leipzig vs. Leverkusen (9:20 a.m.)
• Atlético vs. Villarreal (10:05 a.m.)
• PSV vs. NAC Breda (12:40 p.m.)
• Valladolid vs. Real Madrid (2:50 p.m.)
SUNDAY, JAN. 26 (all times ET)
• Chelsea vs. Arsenal (WSL) (7:25 a.m.)
• Man Utd vs. Brighton (WSL) (1:40 p.m.)
• Barcelona vs. Valencia (2:50 p.m.)
Until recently, City looked to have avoided the squad pitfalls that proved to be the undoing of Liverpool and United. But after two relatively quiet summers in the transfer market — City announced a profit of £139m from player moves in their most recent accounts — Guardiola’s squad are now in need of an overhaul due to the age profile of several key players.
Walker (34), Gundogan (34) and De Bruyne (33) all need replacing, while Bernardo Silva, John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are all past their 30th birthday; Nathan Aké, Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji are all 29. Despite the number of 30-somethings in his team, Guardiola has insisted that the age of his players is not an issue. “It depends on the performance,” Guardiola said in November. “There are players who are 30 and more than 30 who perform incredibly well. There are players who are 23 who perform not good. I don’t see the age. All teams have players with certain ages.”
Having allowed Gundogan to leave for Barcelona as a free agent in 2023, City’s decision to re-sign the midfielder last summer was a rare backward step for the club, but City have also sanctioned the departures of homegrown youngsters including Palmer (now at Chelsea), Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) and Romeo Lavia (Chelsea). The club have been sleepwalking into a major squad overhaul, but with the Premier League’s 115 charges for financial breaches hanging over the club and Begiristain due to leave this summer, they may have left it too late to address the issue decisively as other issues become clear.
Sources have told ESPN that 22-year-old James McAtee, a player regarded by Guardiola as a potential replacement for Bernardo Silva, could be the next to leave due to frustration over a lack of playing time; Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig are all interested. Walker’s surprise transfer request this month, and goalkeeper Éderson‘s frustration at losing his starting spot to Stefan Ortega, have added to a rare sense of discontent within the squad. Meanwhile, Guardiola’s increasingly agitated persona in the technical area has also raised doubts as to whether he will see out his new deal.
However, there is some good news in the form of Haaland’s new 10-year contract. For the club’s biggest star to commit to such a long-term deal suggests there is optimism that this season is nothing more than a blip, and an unavoidable consequence of a team needing to be refreshed.
City have made signings to bolster Guardiola’s squad in January, with deals for young defenders Abdukodir Khusanov (£40m) and Vitor Reis (£30m) set to be followed by the £55m signing of Eintracht forward Omar Marmoush. But are they the right moves or a repeat of the gambles — and mistakes — made by Liverpool and United? Time will tell whether they are City’s Jimmy Carter and Gabriel Obertan, or the new Julián Álvarez and Rúben Dias. If they are to avoid experiencing the same fall as Liverpool and United, City need them to be the latter.
