Qualification for the 2026 World Cup in South America kicked off with six rounds last year, less than nine months after Lionel Messi and Argentina won the 2022 final in Qatar.
Since September, another six have been played, leaving the campaign two thirds complete. From now on, things are a little more spaced out with double-headers in late March, early June and mid-September.
So, after the latest frantic burst of matches, what are the big questions hanging over the teams as they prepare for their final push to reach the finals in the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Argentina
1st place: 25 points (goal difference, +14)
Is a glorious era coming to a close?
Tuesday’s 1-0 win over Peru took Argentina to 25 points. In all of the previous 10-team campaigns, that has been enough to guarantee sixth place. Since the top six teams qualify automatically for 2026, we can safely conclude that with a third of the matches still to go, the World Cup holders have already done enough to ensure they will be there in North America to defend their crown.
And yet. There is a vague sense of unease around, perhaps best expressed by Juan Pablo Varsky, one of the country’s leading football writers. After last week’s 2-1 defeat to Paraguay, he wrote that the Peru game would “represent something very important — the end of the nucleus that we have come to know as the best Argentina side ever.”
He is referring to a feeling that the current team may have passed its peak — that Ángel Di María is impossible to replace, that Messi’s international future remains uncertain, perhaps to a view that the side needs a rethink. Can Messi operate together with both Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez? Probably not against the best sides. “The moment has come,” Varsky concluded, “to renew, change, look for alternatives.” We will soon find out if coach Lionel Scaloni agrees with him.
Uruguay
2nd: 20 (+8)
Has the storm passed?
This time last year, Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay had just beaten Brazil and Argentina, and were the continent’s in-form team. The coach appeared an excellent fit for an ageing side in need of a changing of the guard.
But things started to go wrong during the Copa América. The long-term injury to Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araújo has sent shudders all through the side, and then there is the question of the relationship between a notoriously eccentric coach and his players. After retiring from international football, Luis Suárez went public with a list of complaints that seemed to be widely shared in the dressing room, and suddenly Uruguay were plunged into crisis. They failed to score for four games, even managing to lose to Peru, and more poor results this month might have made the situation unsustainable. And the opponents were tough.
But Uruguay rallied for a dramatic win over Colombia and a battling draw away to Brazil. Bielsa’s decisions paid off: leaving Manuel Ugarte, by the coach’s admission the best player of his reign, out of the starting lineup against Colombia; taking Darwin Núñez off at half-time against Brazil worked out OK. Uruguay seem to be back on course.
Ecuador
3rd: 19 (+7)
Have they found the missing piece?
Ecuador have a claim to be the most solid side in CONMEBOL qualifying. Were it not for a three-point penalty they would be second in the table. Tuesday’s 1-0 win away to Colombia might be the best performance of the entire campaign — both for the way they controlled the game for the first 20 minutes. and also for how they defended for over an hour after having Piero Hincapié sent off.
The defensive unit is extremely impressive. Just four goals conceded in 12 games tells its own story. Ecuador have a magnificent crop of centre-backs, and Moisés Caicedo spearheads a dynamic, athletic midfield. The problem is at the other end, where there is a dearth of strikers. Ecuador remain over-dependent on Enner Valencia — whose winner against Colombia was superb, but who is now at the veteran stage. There are few alternatives. Kevin Rodríguez is a willing tryer, but not a consistent goal threat. Leo Campana struggles physically at this level.
But at least Gonzalo Plata is back. The strong, left-footed winger was a star of Ecuador’s excellent under-20 side of 2019. Since then his nomadic career has proved wayward, on and off the pitch. He recently joined Flamengo in Brazil, and after an uneasy start is beginning to flower. He was a big plus point for Ecuador in this month’s games, and if he can stay consistent he can add greatly to the team’s firepower.
Colombia
4th: 19 (+5)
How will the coach react to his first crisis?
Nestor Lorenzo went two years unbeaten with Colombia until falling to Argentina in the final of the Copa América. His team were still the only unbeaten side in the World Cup qualifiers — but they have now lost three of their last four matches. This is new territory for Lorenzo and his men.
True, all three were narrow, single-goal defeats. But how much will this sequence shake the faith of the dressing room? Will there be a serious rethink? James Rodríguez is vital to the team, but at what point does his lack of activity at club level become a problem? Will Jhon Durán be trusted to become the regular first-choice centre-forward? At the moment that role often belongs to Jhon Córdoba, but the more the coach insists with him the more chances he misses.
Next up, at the end of March, with Duran once more suspended, is the visit to Brazil, a game where Colombia can expect to be seriously tested. After that one, most of the remaining fixtures look easier, but another defeat (a fourth in five games) could open up the wounds of a generation of players still suffering from the trauma of missing out on the Qatar World Cup. Colombia will surely be present in 2026. A few months ago it seemed as if they might even travel to North America as one of the tournament surprises. Can they preserve that belief?