The unlikely start to this year’s AFL season has paved the way for a series of potential scenarios few would have predicted, including Geelong’s premiership defence being on shaky ground.
Collingwood have rocketed into premiership favouritism after triumphs over the Cats – who will now have to defy history to play finals – and impressive first-up victors Port Adelaide.
Essendon, St Kilda, Collingwood, North Melbourne and Sydney have all started the AFL season with two wins.Credit:Getty
The Magpies’ brilliant opening to the season comes after they made a preliminary final in 2022, whereas North Melbourne, St Kilda and Essendon are also unbeaten after appointing new coaches following dismal campaigns last year.
While it might seem premature to assess a team’s finals hopes after just two games, there is a hefty weight of evidence that trends – good and bad – are established in those opening weeks of the season.
Geelong’s 0-2 beginning is just the second time they have started so sluggishly in Chris Scott’s 13 years as coach – it happened in 2015; the first and only time the Cats have missed the finals during is reign.
They are the first premiers to be in this position since Hawthorn in 2009. Those Hawks also failed to qualify for the top eight that season.
In fact, no team that started 0-2 this century has gone on to win the premiership, and 88 of the 108 sides (81 per cent) in that position fell short of the finals.
This is the fifth time the Cats have lost their first two matches of the season since 2000, with 2002 and 2003 the other years where they finished outside the eight. So, Scott’s team will be desperate to get back on track against winless Gold Coast on Sunday.
“We always knew it was going to be a hard year,” Scott said.
“I think we’d be saying exactly the same thing if we had won two close games [instead of losing them], so the fact we haven’t got over the line; there’s disappointment there – that’s obvious – but it’s certainly not a situation where we’re really panicking.
Geelong coach Chris Scott (right) and football boss Simon Lloyd have the challenge of fixing the Cats’ slow start.Credit:AFL Photos
“We’ve come into this year with a view that we are going to be different [to last year, and] there are going to be teething problems with a few things, and we’ve lost a couple of close games, but there’s still a lot to like.
“There’s a quiet confidence about us … I get that negative momentum can throw you off the rails a little bit, but we’re miles off that.”
Geelong might source inspiration from their 2004 season, when they rallied from a 0-3 win-loss start to finish fourth at the end of the home and away campaign, then reach a preliminary final.
It is just the third time in VFL/AFL history that the reigning premiers began 0-2 and the previous year’s wooden spooner – in this case, the Kangaroos – won their first two matches. The other two occasions were 1970 (Richmond and Melbourne) and 2000 (North Melbourne and Collingwood).
Scott’s identical twin, Bombers coach Brad Scott, on the other hand, would love to see history repeat.
Essendon sat atop the ladder at the completion of round one thanks to a 59-point demolition of Hawthorn, before overpowering the Suns by 28 points on Sunday.
Since the final eight was introduced to the AFL in 1994, only two clubs have failed to make the finals after topping the table after round one – Adelaide in 1994 and the Brisbane Lions in 2007.
But Scott has cautioned against expectations getting out of hand at Bomberland.
He revealed to The Age this month that he warned new president David Barham and his board not to hire him if they believed the Bombers were close to turning everything around after two underwhelming decades.
“I don’t want to dampen [supporters’] excitement. I want them to be encouraged, but also to have an eye on what’s coming through,” Scott said.
“We keep talking about the need for stability, and [how] we won’t make short-term decisions – and we’re going to come up against some really, really good teams.
“For us, every game is a hard game. But we want our fans to be excited; just also understanding that it’s going to take us some time.”
There is every reason for Essendon supporters – and those of the other undefeated teams, Sydney, St Kilda, Collingwood and North Melbourne – to be bullish.
Of the 107 teams since 2000 to start their season with two wins, 79 made the finals, and 20 of them advanced at least to a preliminary final.
